本世紀最接近的選舉越來越近。兩週前，538 對總統選舉的預測顯示，副總統卡馬拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris) 在11 月5 日擊敗前總統唐納德·特朗普(Donald Trump) 的機會只有百分之五十八。
The presidential race is close no matter which way you slice it. This is both because the polls are exceedingly tight right now and because there is still uncertainty about how the final two and a half weeks of the campaign will unfold. As we have written, the race can change quickly in the final weeks. For example, in the last few weeks of the 2016 and 2020 campaigns, polls moved by about 4 and 2 points, respectively, toward Trump.
無論你以哪種方式劃分，總統競選都是勢均力敵的。這既是因為目前的民調極度緊張，也因為競選活動的最後兩周半將如何展開仍存在不確定性。正如我們所寫，比賽在最後幾周可能會迅速改變。例如，在 2016 年和 2020 年競選活動的最後幾週，民調分別向川普傾斜了約 4 個百分點和 2 個百分點。
The value our forecast adds over our polling averages is that it attempts to quantify how likely such a shift is — and how inaccurate polls might be even on Election Day itself. But this also means that as the time remaining for people to change their minds decreases, the forecast's uncertainty about the race also decreases — and very quickly.
我們的預測相對於民調平均值的附加價值在於，它試圖量化這種轉變的可能性有多大，以及即使在選舉日本身民調也可能有多不準確。但這也意味著，隨著人們改變主意的剩餘時間減少，預測對比賽的不確定性也會減少——而且速度非常快。
But because the polls are so tight right now, if they don't budge, the forecast won't either. If you run our presidential election forecast in "nowcast" mode — where we pretend the election is being held today and remove all volatility stemming from how many days are left until Nov. 5 — Trump still has a 52-in-100 chance of winning.
但由於目前的民調結果非常緊張，如果他們不改變，預測也不會改變。如果你以「即時預報」模式進行總統選舉預測——我們假設選舉今天舉行，並消除由於距11 月5 日還剩多少天而產生的所有波動——川普仍有100 分之52 的獲勝機會。
Finally, I have to remind you that a close election in terms of the odds does not necessarily mean that the final outcome will be close. If the polls miss by a historically normal amount, either candidate could easily win with 300 Electoral College votes. While we can say that this is one of the closest elections in modern history in the polls, we can't guarantee that it will go into the history books as one of the closest in terms of votes.
最後，我要提醒大家的是，賠率接近的選舉並不一定代表最終結果會很接近。如果民調落後於歷史正常水平，任何候選人都可以輕鬆贏得 300 張選舉團票。雖然我們可以說這是近代史上民調最接近的選舉之一，但我們不能保證它將作為得票最接近的選舉之一載入史冊。
