本世纪最接近的选举越来越近。两周前，538 对总统选举的预测显示，副总统卡马拉·哈里斯 (Kamala Harris) 在 11 月 5 日击败前总统唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 的机会只有百分之五十八。现在，距离选举日仅 18 天，我们的预测显示特朗普的胜算十分有限。在比赛中占据优势，获胜机会为 100 分之 52。
The presidential race is close no matter which way you slice it. This is both because the polls are exceedingly tight right now and because there is still uncertainty about how the final two and a half weeks of the campaign will unfold. As we have written, the race can change quickly in the final weeks. For example, in the last few weeks of the 2016 and 2020 campaigns, polls moved by about 4 and 2 points, respectively, toward Trump.
无论你以哪种方式划分，总统竞选都是势均力敌的。这既是因为目前的民意调查极其紧张，也因为竞选活动的最后两周半将如何展开仍存在不确定性。正如我们所写，比赛在最后几周可能会迅速发生变化。例如，在 2016 年和 2020 年竞选活动的最后几周，民调分别向特朗普倾斜了约 4 个百分点和 2 个百分点。
The value our forecast adds over our polling averages is that it attempts to quantify how likely such a shift is — and how inaccurate polls might be even on Election Day itself. But this also means that as the time remaining for people to change their minds decreases, the forecast's uncertainty about the race also decreases — and very quickly.
我们的预测相对于民意调查平均值的附加价值在于，它试图量化这种转变的可能性有多大，以及即使在选举日本身民意调查也可能有多不准确。但这也意味着，随着人们改变主意的剩余时间减少，预测对比赛的不确定性也会减少——而且速度非常快。
But because the polls are so tight right now, if they don't budge, the forecast won't either. If you run our presidential election forecast in "nowcast" mode — where we pretend the election is being held today and remove all volatility stemming from how many days are left until Nov. 5 — Trump still has a 52-in-100 chance of winning.
但由于目前的民调结果非常紧张，如果他们不改变，预测也不会改变。如果你以“即时预报”模式进行总统选举预测——我们假设选举今天举行，并消除由于距 11 月 5 日还剩多少天而产生的所有波动——特朗普仍有 100 分之 52 的获胜机会。
Finally, I have to remind you that a close election in terms of the odds does not necessarily mean that the final outcome will be close. If the polls miss by a historically normal amount, either candidate could easily win with 300 Electoral College votes. While we can say that this is one of the closest elections in modern history in the polls, we can't guarantee that it will go into the history books as one of the closest in terms of votes.
最后，我要提醒大家的是，赔率接近的选举并不一定意味着最终结果会很接近。如果民调落后于历史正常水平，任何一位候选人都可以轻松赢得 300 张选举团票。虽然我们可以说这是现代历史上民调最接近的选举之一，但我们不能保证它将作为得票最接近的选举之一载入史册。
