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then Harris is going to win the popular vote by a lot. Like, a *lot* lot.

那麼哈里斯將以很大的優勢贏得民眾選票。就像，很多*很多。

(4) But the Electoral College is still tight. I keep saying that the Electoral College is a structural advantage for Trump. And it is. But if Harris is winning the popular vote by 6 or 7 points, then she should be able to squeak out an Electoral College victory.

(4) 但選舉團制度仍緊張。我一直說選舉團制度對川普來說是一個結構性優勢。確實如此。但如果哈里斯以 6 或 7 個百分點的優勢贏得普選，那麼她應該能夠贏得選舉人團勝利。

The polls are showing that this race is tightening. And that’s good news for Trump. But the polls are also showing that Harris should be able to pull this out. And that’s good news for her.

民調顯示，這場競爭正在加劇。這對川普來說是個好消息。但民調也顯示哈里斯應該能夠實現這個目標。這對她來說是個好消息。

2. The Harris Ground Game

2. 哈里斯地面比賽

The Harris campaign has been touting their ground game for months now. And they’ve been putting a lot of emphasis on it in the final stretch.

幾個月來，哈里斯競選團隊一直在宣傳他們的地面比賽。他們在最後階段一直非常重視這一點。

But what does a ground game actually do? And how do we know if it’s working?

但地面遊戲實際上有什麼作用呢？我們如何知道它是否有效？

There are a few key things that a ground game can do to help a candidate win an election:

地面遊戲可以做一些關鍵的事情來幫助候選人贏得選舉：

- Get out the vote (GOTV): This is the most important thing that a ground game can do. They can help to identify and mobilize voters who are likely to support the candidate and make sure that they get to the polls on Election Day.

- 投票（GOTV）：這是地面遊戲能做的最重要的事。他們可以幫助識別和動員可能支持候選人的選民，並確保他們在選舉日前往投票站。

- Persuade undecided voters: A ground game can also help to persuade undecided voters to support the candidate. They can do this by having conversations with voters, distributing literature, and organizing events.

- 說服尚未決定的選民：地面遊戲也可以幫助說服尚未決定的選民支持候選人。他們可以透過與選民對話、分發文獻和組織活動來做到這一點。

- Counteract the opposition's ground game: Finally, a ground game can help to counteract the efforts of the opposition's ground game. They can do this by monitoring the opposition's activities and responding to any negative tactics that they may be using.

- 抵消對手的地面比賽：最後，地面比賽可以幫助抵消對手的地面比賽的努力。他們可以透過監視反對派的活動並對他們可能使用的任何消極策略做出反應來做到這一點。

There are a few ways to measure the effectiveness of a ground game. One way is to look at the turnout numbers in the areas where the ground game is operating. If the turnout is higher in these areas than in other areas, then it suggests that the ground game is having a positive impact.

有幾種方法可以衡量地面遊戲的有效性。一種方法是查看地面比賽進行區域的投票人數。如果這些地區的投票率高於其他地區，則表示地面比賽正在產生正面影響。

Another way to measure the effectiveness of a ground game is to look at the candidate's performance in the areas where the ground game is operating. If the candidate is performing better in these areas than in other areas, then it suggests that the ground game is having a positive impact.

衡量地面遊戲有效性的另一種方法是查看候選人在地面遊戲運行區域的表現。如果候選人在這些領域的表現優於其他領域，則表明地面比賽正在產生積極的影響。

The Harris campaign has been putting a lot of emphasis on their ground game in the final stretch of the campaign. And they believe that it will help her to win the election.

哈里斯競選團隊在競選的最後階段非常重視地面比賽。他們相信這將有助於她贏得選舉。

But what does the evidence say? Does a ground game actually make a difference in the outcome of an election?

但證據顯示了什麼？地面遊戲真的會對選舉結果產生影響嗎？

The evidence on the effectiveness of ground games is mixed. Some studies have found that ground games can have a significant impact on turnout and candidate performance. Other studies have found that the impact of ground games is more modest.

關於地面遊戲有效性的證據好壞參半。一些研究發現，地面比賽會對投票率和候選人表現產生重大影響。其他研究發現地面遊戲的影響較為溫和。

One study, conducted by the University of California, Berkeley, found that a ground game operation increased turnout by an average of 2.2 percentage points in the 2008 presidential election. The study also found that the ground game operation had a positive impact on candidate performance, increasing the candidate's vote share by an average of 1.4 percentage points.

加州大學柏克萊分校進行的一項研究發現，2008 年總統大選中，地面遊戲的投票率平均提高了 2.2 個百分點。研究還發現，地面遊戲操作對候選人的表現產生了正面影響，使候選人的得票率平均提高了1.4個百分點。

Another study, conducted by the University of Michigan, found that a ground game operation had no impact on turnout in the 2012 presidential election. However, the study did find that the ground game operation had a small positive impact on candidate performance, increasing the candidate's vote share by an average of 0.5 percentage points.

密西根大學進行的另一項研究發現，地面遊戲操作對 2012 年總統大選的投票率沒有影響。不過，研究確實發現，地面遊戲操作對候選人的表現產生了微小的正面影響，使候選人的得票率平均提高了0.5個百分點。

Overall, the evidence on the effectiveness of ground games is mixed. Some studies have found that ground games can have a significant impact on turnout and candidate performance. Other studies have found that the impact of ground games is more modest.

整體而言，關於地面遊戲有效性的證據好壞參半。一些研究發現，地面比賽會對投票率和候選人表現產生重大影響。其他研究發現地面遊戲的影響較為溫和。

However, it is important to note that the impact of a ground game may vary depending on a number of factors, such as the size and enthusiasm of the candidate's base of support, the competitiveness of the race, and the resources that are available to the campaign.

然而，值得注意的是，地面比賽的影響可能會因多種因素而異，例如候選人支持基礎的規模和熱情、比賽的競爭力以及候選人可用的資源。