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then Harris is going to win the popular vote by a lot. Like, a *lot* lot.

那么哈里斯将以很大的优势赢得民众选票。就像，很多*很多。

(4) But the Electoral College is still tight. I keep saying that the Electoral College is a structural advantage for Trump. And it is. But if Harris is winning the popular vote by 6 or 7 points, then she should be able to squeak out an Electoral College victory.

(4) 但选举团制度仍然紧张。我一直说选举团制度对特朗普来说是一个结构性优势。确实如此。但如果哈里斯以 6 或 7 个百分点的优势赢得普选，那么她应该能够赢得选举人团胜利。

The polls are showing that this race is tightening. And that’s good news for Trump. But the polls are also showing that Harris should be able to pull this out. And that’s good news for her.

民意调查显示，这场竞争正在加剧。这对特朗普来说是个好消息。但民意调查也显示哈里斯应该能够实现这一目标。这对她来说是个好消息。

2. The Harris Ground Game

2. 哈里斯地面比赛

The Harris campaign has been touting their ground game for months now. And they’ve been putting a lot of emphasis on it in the final stretch.

几个月来，哈里斯竞选团队一直在宣传他们的地面比赛。他们在最后阶段一直非常重视这一点。

But what does a ground game actually do? And how do we know if it’s working?

但地面游戏实际上有什么作用呢？我们如何知道它是否有效？

There are a few key things that a ground game can do to help a candidate win an election:

地面游戏可以做一些关键的事情来帮助候选人赢得选举：

- Get out the vote (GOTV): This is the most important thing that a ground game can do. They can help to identify and mobilize voters who are likely to support the candidate and make sure that they get to the polls on Election Day.

- 投票（GOTV）：这是地面游戏能做的最重要的事情。他们可以帮助识别和动员可能支持候选人的选民，并确保他们在选举日前往投票站。

- Persuade undecided voters: A ground game can also help to persuade undecided voters to support the candidate. They can do this by having conversations with voters, distributing literature, and organizing events.

- 说服尚未决定的选民：地面游戏也可以帮助说服尚未决定的选民支持候选人。他们可以通过与选民对话、分发文献和组织活动来做到这一点。

- Counteract the opposition's ground game: Finally, a ground game can help to counteract the efforts of the opposition's ground game. They can do this by monitoring the opposition's activities and responding to any negative tactics that they may be using.

- 抵消对手的地面比赛：最后，地面比赛可以帮助抵消对手的地面比赛的努力。他们可以通过监视反对派的活动并对他们可能使用的任何消极策略做出反应来做到这一点。

There are a few ways to measure the effectiveness of a ground game. One way is to look at the turnout numbers in the areas where the ground game is operating. If the turnout is higher in these areas than in other areas, then it suggests that the ground game is having a positive impact.

有几种方法可以衡量地面游戏的有效性。一种方法是查看地面比赛进行区域的投票人数。如果这些地区的投票率高于其他地区，则表明地面比赛正在产生积极影响。

Another way to measure the effectiveness of a ground game is to look at the candidate's performance in the areas where the ground game is operating. If the candidate is performing better in these areas than in other areas, then it suggests that the ground game is having a positive impact.

衡量地面游戏有效性的另一种方法是查看候选人在地面游戏运行区域的表现。如果候选人在这些领域的表现优于其他领域，则表明地面比赛正在产生积极的影响。

The Harris campaign has been putting a lot of emphasis on their ground game in the final stretch of the campaign. And they believe that it will help her to win the election.

哈里斯竞选团队在竞选的最后阶段非常重视地面比赛。他们相信这将有助于她赢得选举。

But what does the evidence say? Does a ground game actually make a difference in the outcome of an election?

但证据表明了什么？地面游戏真的会对选举结果产生影响吗？

The evidence on the effectiveness of ground games is mixed. Some studies have found that ground games can have a significant impact on turnout and candidate performance. Other studies have found that the impact of ground games is more modest.

关于地面游戏有效性的证据好坏参半。一些研究发现，地面比赛会对投票率和候选人表现产生重大影响。其他研究发现地面游戏的影响更为温和。

One study, conducted by the University of California, Berkeley, found that a ground game operation increased turnout by an average of 2.2 percentage points in the 2008 presidential election. The study also found that the ground game operation had a positive impact on candidate performance, increasing the candidate's vote share by an average of 1.4 percentage points.

加州大学伯克利分校进行的一项研究发现，2008 年总统选举中，地面游戏的投票率平均提高了 2.2 个百分点。研究还发现，地面游戏操作对候选人的表现产生了积极影响，使候选人的得票率平均提高了1.4个百分点。

Another study, conducted by the University of Michigan, found that a ground game operation had no impact on turnout in the 2012 presidential election. However, the study did find that the ground game operation had a small positive impact on candidate performance, increasing the candidate's vote share by an average of 0.5 percentage points.

密歇根大学进行的另一项研究发现，地面游戏操作对 2012 年总统选举的投票率没有影响。不过，研究确实发现，地面游戏操作对候选人的表现产生了微小的积极影响，使候选人的得票率平均提高了0.5个百分点。

Overall, the evidence on the effectiveness of ground games is mixed. Some studies have found that ground games can have a significant impact on turnout and candidate performance. Other studies have found that the impact of ground games is more modest.

总体而言，关于地面游戏有效性的证据好坏参半。一些研究发现，地面比赛会对投票率和候选人表现产生重大影响。其他研究发现地面游戏的影响更为温和。

However, it is important to note that the impact of a ground game may vary depending on a number of factors, such as the size and enthusiasm of the candidate's base of support, the competitiveness of the race, and the resources that are available to the campaign.

然而，值得注意的是，地面比赛的影响可能会因多种因素而异，例如候选人支持基础的规模和热情、比赛的竞争力以及候选人可用的资源。活动。