美國選舉博彩：Polymarket「操縱」說法未達標

一位專家表示，操縱敘事是主流媒體試圖抹黑 Polymarket 的選舉賠率並控制敘事。

CoinDesk’s deep dive into the U.S. election betting markets on prediction markets, online sportsbooks and stock markets, plus analysis from traders, lawyers and economists.

CoinDesk 深入研究了美國大選博彩市場的預測市場、線上運動博彩和股票市場，以及交易員、律師和經濟學家的分析。

Election 2024 coverage presented by

2024 年選舉報道由

CoinDesk is tracking the U.S. election betting markets across prediction markets, online sportsbooks and the stock market. Here's what the traders, lawyers and economists are saying.

CoinDesk 正在追蹤預測市場、線上體育博彩和股票市場的美國大選博彩市場。以下是交易者、律師和經濟學家的說法。

After the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump repeatedly alleged that the results were rigged against him. Now, as the 2024 campaign heats up, mainstream media outlets are floating a similar theory about a different sort of election market.

2020 年總統大選後，唐納德·川普 (Donald Trump) 一再聲稱選舉結果對他不利。現在，隨著 2024 年競選活動的升溫，主流媒體正在針對不同類型的選舉市場提出類似的理論。

“A French gambler’s $50m of bets inflated Trump’s odds — and is threatening democracy” gasped a recent headline in the U.K. Independent newspaper. The Wall Street Journal and New York Times have been comparatively measured in tone, but also gave airtime to the theory that someone has been manipulating Polymarket to influence turnout and morale or give Trump an excuse to challenge the results should he lose again.

英國《獨立報》最近的頭條新聞驚呼道：「一名法國賭徒下注 5000 萬美元，抬高了川普的賠率，並且正在威脅民主」。 《華爾街日報》和《紐約時報》的語氣相對謹慎，但也大篇幅宣揚有人一直在操縱 Polymarket 來影響投票率和士氣，或者為川普再次失敗提供挑戰選舉結果的藉口。

To be sure, Polymarket has been signaling a higher probability for the Republican candidate defeating Kamala Harris on Tuesday than forecasters and other prediction markets. And Polymarket also confirmed to the Times that a single French national does control several accounts that have been making large bets on Trump winning. That trader told the Journal he had "absolutely no political agenda" and was just trying to make money.

可以肯定的是，Polymarket 一直在暗示共和黨候選人周二擊敗卡馬拉·哈里斯的可能性比預測者和其他預測市場更高。 Polymarket 也向《泰晤士報》證實，一個法國人確實控制著幾個對川普獲勝進行大額押注的帳戶。該交易員告訴《華爾街日報》，他“絕對沒有政治議程”，只是想賺錢。

For its part, Polymarket told the Times it had found no evidence of manipulation. And several experts in prediction markets interviewed by CoinDesk said they saw little if any.

Polymarket 則告訴《泰晤士報》，它沒有發現任何操縱行為的證據。接受 CoinDesk 採訪的幾位預測市場專家表示，他們幾乎沒有看到任何情況。

First of all, the French whale's use of multiple accounts suggests an attempt to minimize slippage, or prices moving against a trader placing a large order.

首先，法國鯨魚使用多個帳戶表明其試圖盡量減少滑點，或價格變動不利於交易者下大單。

"If the goal was to move the price, you'd do the opposite," said Flip Pidot, co-founder and CEO of American Civics Exchange, an over-the-counter dealer in political futures contracts. "Instead of having several accounts trading strategically with limit orders, you'd just keep plowing money in blindly and let yourself get filled at worse and worse prices, since that would be optimal if your goal was to artificially inflate the price."

政治期貨合約場外交易商 American Civics Exchange 的聯合創始人兼首席執行官 Flip Pidot 表示：“如果目標是改變價格，那麼你就會做相反的事情。” 「你不必讓多個帳戶用限價指令進行策略性交易，而是繼續盲目地投入資金，讓自己以越來越差的價格成交，因為如果你的目標是人為抬高價格，那將是最佳選擇。

If someone did try to manipulate Polymarket for political reasons, they would be unlikely to succeed more than temporarily, experts told CoinDesk. (A Fortune article alleged a different sort of manipulation — wash trading — that appears to be driven by users trying to earn airdrops of a potential future Polymarket token.)

專家告訴 CoinDesk，如果有人確實出於政治原因試圖操縱 Polymarket，那麼他們不太可能取得暫時的成功。 （《財星》雜誌的一篇文章聲稱有另一種操縱行為——清洗交易——這似乎是由試圖賺取未來潛在 Polymarket 代幣空投的用戶所驅動的。）

CoinDesk is tracking the U.S. election betting markets across prediction markets, online sportsbooks and the stock market. Here's what the traders, lawyers and economists are saying.

CoinDesk 正在追蹤預測市場、線上體育博彩和股票市場的美國大選博彩市場。以下是交易者、律師和經濟學家的說法。

After the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump repeatedly alleged that the results were rigged against him. Now, as the 2024 campaign heats up, mainstream media outlets are floating a similar theory about a different sort of election market.

2020 年總統大選後，唐納德·川普 (Donald Trump) 一再聲稱選舉結果對他不利。現在，隨著 2024 年競選活動的升溫，主流媒體正在針對不同類型的選舉市場提出類似的理論。

“A French gambler’s $50m of bets inflated Trump’s odds — and is threatening democracy” gasped a recent headline in the U.K. Independent newspaper. The Wall Street Journal and New York Times have been comparatively measured in tone, but also gave airtime to the theory that someone has been manipulating Polymarket to influence turnout and morale or give Trump an excuse to challenge the results should he lose again.

英國《獨立報》最近的頭條新聞驚呼道：「一名法國賭徒下注 5000 萬美元，抬高了川普的賠率，並且正在威脅民主」。 《華爾街日報》和《紐約時報》的語氣相對謹慎，但也大篇幅宣揚有人一直在操縱 Polymarket 來影響投票率和士氣，或者為川普再次失敗提供挑戰選舉結果的藉口。

To be sure, Polymarket has been signaling a higher probability for the Republican candidate defeating Kamala Harris on Tuesday than forecasters and other prediction markets. And Polymarket also confirmed to the Times that a single French national does control several accounts that have been making large bets on Trump winning. That trader told the Journal he had "absolutely no political agenda" and was just trying to make money.

可以肯定的是，Polymarket 一直在暗示共和黨候選人周二擊敗卡馬拉·哈里斯的可能性比預測者和其他預測市場更高。 Polymarket 也向《泰晤士報》證實，一個法國人確實控制著幾個對川普獲勝進行大額押注的帳戶。該交易員告訴《華爾街日報》，他“絕對沒有政治議程”，只是想賺錢。

For its part, Polymarket told the Times it had found no evidence of manipulation. And several experts in prediction markets interviewed by CoinDesk said they saw little if any.

Polymarket 則告訴《泰晤士報》，它沒有發現任何操縱行為的證據。接受 CoinDesk 採訪的幾位預測市場專家表示，他們幾乎沒有看到任何情況。

First of all, the French whale's use of multiple accounts suggests an attempt to minimize slippage, or prices moving against a trader placing a large order.

首先，法國鯨魚使用多個帳戶表明其試圖盡量減少滑點，或價格變動不利於交易者下大單。

"If the goal was to move the price, you'd do the opposite," said Flip Pidot, co-founder and CEO of American Civics Exchange, an over-the-counter dealer in political futures contracts. "Instead of having several accounts trading strategically with limit orders, you'd just keep plowing money in blindly and let yourself get filled at worse and worse prices, since that would be optimal if your goal was to artificially inflate the price."

政治期貨合約場外交易商 American Civics Exchange 的聯合創始人兼首席執行官 Flip Pidot 表示：“如果目標是改變價格，那麼你就會做相反的事情。” 「你不必讓多個帳戶用限價指令進行策略性交易，而是繼續盲目地投入資金，讓自己以越來越差的價格成交，因為如果你的目標是人為抬高價格，那將是最佳選擇。

If someone did try to manipulate Polymarket for political reasons, they would be unlikely to succeed more than temporarily, experts told CoinDesk. (A Fortune article alleged a different sort of manipulation — wash trading — that appears to be driven by users trying to earn airdrops of a potential future Polymarket token.)

專家告訴 CoinDesk，如果有人確實出於政治原因試圖操縱 Polymarket，那麼他們不太可能取得暫時的成功。 （《財星》雜誌的一篇文章聲稱有另一種操縱行為——清洗交易——這似乎是由試圖賺取未來潛在 Polymarket 代幣空投的用戶所驅動的。）

Expected value

期望值

First, there is the concept of “expected value," where investors take advantage of a trade that would be profitable in

首先，有一個「預期價值」的概念，即投資者利用可以在以下方面獲利的交易：