美国选举博彩：Polymarket“操纵”说法未达标

一位专家表示，操纵叙事是主流媒体试图抹黑 Polymarket 的选举赔率并控制叙事。

CoinDesk’s deep dive into the U.S. election betting markets on prediction markets, online sportsbooks and stock markets, plus analysis from traders, lawyers and economists.

CoinDesk 深入研究了美国大选博彩市场的预测市场、在线体育博彩和股票市场，以及交易员、律师和经济学家的分析。

Election 2024 coverage presented by

2024 年选举报道由

CoinDesk is tracking the U.S. election betting markets across prediction markets, online sportsbooks and the stock market. Here's what the traders, lawyers and economists are saying.

CoinDesk 正在跟踪预测市场、在线体育博彩和股票市场的美国大选博彩市场。以下是交易员、律师和经济学家的说法。

After the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump repeatedly alleged that the results were rigged against him. Now, as the 2024 campaign heats up, mainstream media outlets are floating a similar theory about a different sort of election market.

2020 年总统大选后，唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 一再声称选举结果对他不利。现在，随着 2024 年竞选活动的升温，主流媒体正在针对不同类型的选举市场提出类似的理论。

“A French gambler’s $50m of bets inflated Trump’s odds — and is threatening democracy” gasped a recent headline in the U.K. Independent newspaper. The Wall Street Journal and New York Times have been comparatively measured in tone, but also gave airtime to the theory that someone has been manipulating Polymarket to influence turnout and morale or give Trump an excuse to challenge the results should he lose again.

英国《独立报》最近的头条新闻惊呼道：“一名法国赌徒下注 5000 万美元，抬高了特朗普的赔率，并且正在威胁民主”。 《华尔街日报》和《纽约时报》的语气相对谨慎，但也大篇幅宣扬有人一直在操纵 Polymarket 来影响投票率和士气，或者为特朗普再次失败提供挑战选举结果的借口。

To be sure, Polymarket has been signaling a higher probability for the Republican candidate defeating Kamala Harris on Tuesday than forecasters and other prediction markets. And Polymarket also confirmed to the Times that a single French national does control several accounts that have been making large bets on Trump winning. That trader told the Journal he had "absolutely no political agenda" and was just trying to make money.

可以肯定的是，Polymarket 一直在暗示共和党候选人周二击败卡马拉·哈里斯的可能性比预测者和其他预测市场更高。 Polymarket 还向《泰晤士报》证实，一个法国人确实控制着几个对特朗普获胜进行大额押注的账户。该交易员告诉《华尔街日报》，他“绝对没有政治议程”，只是想赚钱。

For its part, Polymarket told the Times it had found no evidence of manipulation. And several experts in prediction markets interviewed by CoinDesk said they saw little if any.

Polymarket 则告诉《泰晤士报》，它没有发现任何操纵行为的证据。接受 CoinDesk 采访的几位预测市场专家表示，他们几乎没有看到任何情况。

First of all, the French whale's use of multiple accounts suggests an attempt to minimize slippage, or prices moving against a trader placing a large order.

首先，法国鲸鱼使用多个账户表明其试图尽量减少滑点，或者说价格变动不利于交易者下大单。

"If the goal was to move the price, you'd do the opposite," said Flip Pidot, co-founder and CEO of American Civics Exchange, an over-the-counter dealer in political futures contracts. "Instead of having several accounts trading strategically with limit orders, you'd just keep plowing money in blindly and let yourself get filled at worse and worse prices, since that would be optimal if your goal was to artificially inflate the price."

政治期货合约场外交易商 American Civics Exchange 的联合创始人兼首席执行官 Flip Pidot 表示：“如果目标是改变价格，那么你就会做相反的事情。” “你不必让多个账户用限价指令进行战略性交易，而是继续盲目地投入资金，让自己以越来越差的价格成交，因为如果你的目标是人为抬高价格，那将是最佳选择。”

If someone did try to manipulate Polymarket for political reasons, they would be unlikely to succeed more than temporarily, experts told CoinDesk. (A Fortune article alleged a different sort of manipulation — wash trading — that appears to be driven by users trying to earn airdrops of a potential future Polymarket token.)

专家告诉 CoinDesk，如果有人确实出于政治原因试图操纵 Polymarket，那么他们不太可能取得暂时的成功。 （《财富》杂志的一篇文章声称存在另一种操纵行为——清洗交易——这似乎是由试图赚取未来潜在 Polymarket 代币空投的用户驱动的。）

CoinDesk is tracking the U.S. election betting markets across prediction markets, online sportsbooks and the stock market. Here's what the traders, lawyers and economists are saying.

CoinDesk 正在跟踪预测市场、在线体育博彩和股票市场的美国大选博彩市场。以下是交易员、律师和经济学家的说法。

After the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump repeatedly alleged that the results were rigged against him. Now, as the 2024 campaign heats up, mainstream media outlets are floating a similar theory about a different sort of election market.

2020 年总统大选后，唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 一再声称选举结果对他不利。现在，随着 2024 年竞选活动的升温，主流媒体正在针对不同类型的选举市场提出类似的理论。

“A French gambler’s $50m of bets inflated Trump’s odds — and is threatening democracy” gasped a recent headline in the U.K. Independent newspaper. The Wall Street Journal and New York Times have been comparatively measured in tone, but also gave airtime to the theory that someone has been manipulating Polymarket to influence turnout and morale or give Trump an excuse to challenge the results should he lose again.

英国《独立报》最近的头条新闻惊呼道：“一名法国赌徒下注 5000 万美元，抬高了特朗普的赔率，并且正在威胁民主”。 《华尔街日报》和《纽约时报》的语气相对谨慎，但也大篇幅宣扬有人一直在操纵 Polymarket 来影响投票率和士气，或者为特朗普再次失败提供挑战选举结果的借口。

To be sure, Polymarket has been signaling a higher probability for the Republican candidate defeating Kamala Harris on Tuesday than forecasters and other prediction markets. And Polymarket also confirmed to the Times that a single French national does control several accounts that have been making large bets on Trump winning. That trader told the Journal he had "absolutely no political agenda" and was just trying to make money.

可以肯定的是，Polymarket 一直在暗示共和党候选人周二击败卡马拉·哈里斯的可能性比预测者和其他预测市场更高。 Polymarket 还向《泰晤士报》证实，一个法国人确实控制着几个对特朗普获胜进行大额押注的账户。该交易员告诉《华尔街日报》，他“绝对没有政治议程”，只是想赚钱。

For its part, Polymarket told the Times it had found no evidence of manipulation. And several experts in prediction markets interviewed by CoinDesk said they saw little if any.

Polymarket 则告诉《泰晤士报》，它没有发现任何操纵行为的证据。接受 CoinDesk 采访的几位预测市场专家表示，他们几乎没有看到任何情况。

First of all, the French whale's use of multiple accounts suggests an attempt to minimize slippage, or prices moving against a trader placing a large order.

首先，法国鲸鱼使用多个账户表明其试图尽量减少滑点，或者说价格变动不利于交易者下大单。

"If the goal was to move the price, you'd do the opposite," said Flip Pidot, co-founder and CEO of American Civics Exchange, an over-the-counter dealer in political futures contracts. "Instead of having several accounts trading strategically with limit orders, you'd just keep plowing money in blindly and let yourself get filled at worse and worse prices, since that would be optimal if your goal was to artificially inflate the price."

政治期货合约场外交易商 American Civics Exchange 的联合创始人兼首席执行官 Flip Pidot 表示：“如果目标是改变价格，那么你就会做相反的事情。” “你不必让多个账户用限价指令进行战略性交易，而是继续盲目地投入资金，让自己以越来越差的价格成交，因为如果你的目标是人为抬高价格，那将是最佳选择。”

If someone did try to manipulate Polymarket for political reasons, they would be unlikely to succeed more than temporarily, experts told CoinDesk. (A Fortune article alleged a different sort of manipulation — wash trading — that appears to be driven by users trying to earn airdrops of a potential future Polymarket token.)

专家告诉 CoinDesk，如果有人确实出于政治原因试图操纵 Polymarket，那么他们不太可能取得暂时的成功。 （《财富》杂志的一篇文章声称存在另一种操纵行为——清洗交易——这似乎是由试图赚取未来潜在 Polymarket 代币空投的用户驱动的。）

Expected value

期望值

First, there is the concept of “expected value," where investors take advantage of a trade that would be profitable in

首先，有一个“预期价值”的概念，即投资者利用可以在以下方面获利的交易：