薩爾瓦多同意放棄其強硬的支持比特幣立場以確保獲得國際貨幣基金組織貸款

最近，當比特幣每枚硬幣短暫突破 10 萬美元時，薩爾瓦多總統納伊布·布克萊 (Nayib Bukele) 得意洋洋。該國的 BTC 儲備超過 6 億美元

Bitcoin (BTC) maximalists were thrilled when El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele stood firm against the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2021. The IMF wanted El Salvador to discontinue BTC’s legal tender status, but Bukele refused, much to the delight of BTC maximalists who framed the issue as the old system fighting against the inevitable new.

當薩爾瓦多總統納伊布·布克萊(Nayib Bukele) 在2021 年堅決反對國際貨幣基金組織(IMF) 時，比特幣(BTC) 最大化主義者感到興奮。 BTC 的法定貨幣地位，但布克萊拒絕了，這讓BTC 最大化主義者感到非常高興。

However, only three years later, Bukele backed down, realizing that U.S. dollars were required to pay the bills. In addition to walking back its mandate that merchants must accept BTC as legal tender, Bukele’s government has agreed to reduce its deficit by 3.5% of GDP and embrace various anti-corruption measures to enhance transparency and foster good governance.

然而，僅僅三年後，布克萊就做出了讓步，意識到需要美元來支付帳單。除了撤銷商人必須接受比特幣作為法定貨幣的規定外，布克萊政府還同意將赤字削減 GDP 的 3.5%，並採取各種反腐敗措施來提高透明度和促進良好治理。

Now, let’s break down what the IMF is asking El Salvador to do and why economists are not impressed.

現在，讓我們來分析一下國際貨幣基金組織要求薩爾瓦多做什麼，以及為什麼經濟學家對此不以為然。

What is the IMF asking El Salvador to do?

國際貨幣基金組織要求薩爾瓦多做什麼？

The IMF has never been comfortable with El Salvador’s BTC gambit, urging it to discontinue BTC’s legal tender status in 2021, citing “large risks” to its economic stability. At the time, Bukele was defiant.

國際貨幣基金組織從未對薩爾瓦多的 BTC 策略感到滿意，敦促其在 2021 年終止 BTC 的法定貨幣地位，理由是其經濟穩定性存在「巨大風險」。當時，布克萊很挑釁。

Now, Bukele’s government has agreed to the following measures:

現在，布克萊政府已同意以下措施：

Making accepting BTC voluntary

自願接受比特幣

Reducing the fiscal deficit by 3.5% of GDP

將財政赤字減少 GDP 的 3.5%

Increasing taxes and cutting spending

增加稅收和削減支出

Boosting El Salvador’s foreign reserve position from $11 billion to about $15 billion

將薩爾瓦多的外匯儲備部位從 110 億美元增加到約 150 億美元

Economists are not impressed

經濟學家對此不以為然

Among the reforms the IMF wants to see is bolstering El Salvador’s foreign reserve position from $11 billion to about $15 billion. While its current BTC stash is worth over $600 million on paper, that’s insufficient to reassure the IMF or other economic institutions of El Salvador’s financial stability.

國際貨幣基金組織希望看到的改革之一是將薩爾瓦多的外匯存底部位從 110 億美元提高到約 150 億美元。雖然其目前的 BTC 儲備帳面價值超過 6 億美元，但這不足以讓國際貨幣基金組織或其他經濟機構放心薩爾瓦多的金融穩定。

Why not? In a word: volatility. Those who have been around in the digital currency space for one or more cycles have seen mind-boggling speculative spikes and crashes and know just how volatile BTC and other digital currencies are. For example, in the final stretch of 2021, BTC was worth $69,000 per coin, but by the end of 2022, it had sunk to under $20,000.

為什麼不呢？簡而言之：波動性。那些在數位貨幣領域待過一個或多個週期的人都見過令人難以置信的投機性飆升和崩潰，並且知道 BTC 和其他數位貨幣的波動性有多大。例如，在 2021 年最後一段時間，BTC 每枚硬幣的價值為 69,000 美元，但到 2022 年底，它已跌至 20,000 美元以下。

In other words, in reality, El Salvador’s $600 million worth of BTC on its balance sheet means little. Not only is the asset illiquid, hence its volatility, but its value could be worth a fraction of that in a year should the market turn.

換句話說，實際上，薩爾瓦多資產負債表上價值 6 億美元的 BTC 意義不大。該資產不僅缺乏流動性，因此具有波動性，而且如果市場轉變，其價值可能會在一年內縮水一小部分。

In fact, it could be argued that Bukele’s BTC gambit has caused the need for the IMF loan he is seeking, at least in part. Had his government spent the $270 million it invested on much-needed healthcare, education, and infrastructure requirements, which are known to boost economic growth, the nation’s GDP might have grown faster, increasing tax receipts and shrinking the deficit as a percentage of GDP.

事實上，可以說，布克萊的 BTC 策略導致了他正在尋求的國際貨幣基金組織貸款的需求，至少部分是如此。如果他的政府將投資的2.7 億美元用於急需的醫療保健、教育和基礎設施需求（眾所周知，這些可以促進經濟成長），那麼國家的GDP 可能會成長得更快，從而增加稅收收入並縮小赤字佔GDP 的比例。

Yet, that’s not what happened. Instead, Bukele’s government gambled on a digital currency that added nothing to El Salvador’s real economy and did little for its balance sheet in the eyes of economists.

然而，事實並非如此。相反，布克萊政府把賭注押在了一種數位貨幣上，在經濟學家看來，這種貨幣對薩爾瓦多的實體經濟沒有任何貢獻，對其資產負債表也沒有什麼幫助。

A mindset problem in the BTC camp

BTC陣營的心態問題

The core of the issue here is a fundamental misunderstanding of economics in the small-block Bitcoin camp: the fiat value of an asset going up is not real economic growth. It’s a reminder of Adam Smith’s argument that money isn’t wealth; real wealth is the goods and services money can buy or control.

這裡問題的核心是小型區塊比特幣陣營對經濟學的根本誤解：資產的法幣價值上漲並不是真正的經濟成長。這讓人想起亞當斯密的論點：金錢不是財富，而是財富。真正的財富是金錢可以購買或控制的商品和服務。

Big block Bitcoiners like those in the BSV camp have argued this for over a decade. Bitcoin was designed as a peer-to-peer electronic cash system capable of micropayments and small, casual payments with virtually no fees. Using it as such would unleash enormous economic growth, making all manner of sub-dollar and even sub-cent transactions possible, creating new business models and a global peer-to-peer economy.

像 BSV 陣營這樣的大區塊比特幣支持者已經爭論了十多年。比特幣被設計為一種點對點電子現金系統，能夠進行小額支付和小額隨意支付，幾乎不收取任何費用。如此利用它將釋放巨大的經濟成長，使各種低於美元甚至低於美分的交易成為可能，創造新的商業模式和全球點對點經濟。

Had nations like El Salvador had access to such a system, there’s no telling what sort of GDP growth it might have experienced. As a nation that received over $8.1 billion in remittances in 2023, El Salvadors’ citizens would have had more cash in their pockets had the associated fees been eliminated, and spending that locally would have undoubtedly led to increased economic growth.

如果像薩爾瓦多這樣的國家能夠使用這樣的系統，誰也說不準它會經歷什麼樣的國內生產毛額成長。作為一個在 2023 年收到超過 81 億美元匯款的國家，如果取消相關費用，薩爾瓦多公民的口袋裡將會有更多現金，而當地支出無疑會促進經濟成長。

Better yet, the timestamped, immutable records the scalable Bitcoin blockchain enables would have made it much easier to show the transparency and good governance the IMF now demands.

更好的是，可擴展的比特幣區塊鏈所支援的帶有時間戳記、不可變的記錄將使人們更容易展示國際貨幣基金組織現在所要求的透明度和良好治理。

While El Salvador’s President has accused his political opposition of missing the opportunity BTC presented, the real missed opportunity was in embracing it rather than the electronic cash system Bitcoin was supposed to be.

雖然薩爾瓦多總統指責他的政治反對派錯過了比特幣帶來的機會，但真正錯失的機會是擁抱比特幣，而不是比特幣本應成為的電子現金系統。

Fortunately, Satoshi Nakamoto’s system lives on as BSV, and those who understand and embrace it now will reap the rewards in the future.

幸運的是，中本聰的系統作為 BSV 繼續存在，現在理解並擁抱它的人將在未來獲得回報。