萨尔瓦多同意放弃其强硬的支持比特币立场以确保获得国际货币基金组织贷款

最近，当比特币每枚硬币短暂突破 10 万美元时，萨尔瓦多总统纳伊布·布克莱 (Nayib Bukele) 得意洋洋。该国的 BTC 储备超过 6 亿美元

Bitcoin (BTC) maximalists were thrilled when El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele stood firm against the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2021. The IMF wanted El Salvador to discontinue BTC’s legal tender status, but Bukele refused, much to the delight of BTC maximalists who framed the issue as the old system fighting against the inevitable new.

当萨尔瓦多总统纳伊布·布克莱 (Nayib Bukele) 在 2021 年坚决反对国际货币基金组织 (IMF) 时，比特币 (BTC) 最大化主义者感到兴奋。国际货币基金组织 (IMF) 希望萨尔瓦多终止 BTC 的法定货币地位，但布克莱拒绝了，这让 BTC 最大化主义者感到非常高兴。将这个问题描述为旧制度与不可避免的新制度的斗争。

However, only three years later, Bukele backed down, realizing that U.S. dollars were required to pay the bills. In addition to walking back its mandate that merchants must accept BTC as legal tender, Bukele’s government has agreed to reduce its deficit by 3.5% of GDP and embrace various anti-corruption measures to enhance transparency and foster good governance.

然而，仅仅三年后，布克莱就做出了让步，意识到需要美元来支付账单。除了撤销商人必须接受比特币作为法定货币的规定外，布克莱政府还同意将赤字削减 GDP 的 3.5%，并采取各种反腐败措施来提高透明度和促进良好治理。

Now, let’s break down what the IMF is asking El Salvador to do and why economists are not impressed.

现在，让我们来分析一下国际货币基金组织要求萨尔瓦多做什么，以及为什么经济学家对此不以为然。

What is the IMF asking El Salvador to do?

国际货币基金组织要求萨尔瓦多做什么？

The IMF has never been comfortable with El Salvador’s BTC gambit, urging it to discontinue BTC’s legal tender status in 2021, citing “large risks” to its economic stability. At the time, Bukele was defiant.

国际货币基金组织从未对萨尔瓦多的 BTC 策略感到满意，敦促其在 2021 年终止 BTC 的法定货币地位，理由是其经济稳定性存在“巨大风险”。当时，布克莱很挑衅。

Now, Bukele’s government has agreed to the following measures:

现在，布克莱政府已同意以下措施：

Making accepting BTC voluntary

自愿接受比特币

Reducing the fiscal deficit by 3.5% of GDP

将财政赤字减少 GDP 的 3.5%

Increasing taxes and cutting spending

增加税收和削减支出

Boosting El Salvador’s foreign reserve position from $11 billion to about $15 billion

将萨尔瓦多的外汇储备头寸从 110 亿美元增加到约 150 亿美元

Economists are not impressed

经济学家对此不以为然

Among the reforms the IMF wants to see is bolstering El Salvador’s foreign reserve position from $11 billion to about $15 billion. While its current BTC stash is worth over $600 million on paper, that’s insufficient to reassure the IMF or other economic institutions of El Salvador’s financial stability.

国际货币基金组织希望看到的改革之一是将萨尔瓦多的外汇储备头寸从 110 亿美元提高到约 150 亿美元。尽管其目前的 BTC 储备账面价值超过 6 亿美元，但这不足以让国际货币基金组织或其他经济机构放心萨尔瓦多的金融稳定。

Why not? In a word: volatility. Those who have been around in the digital currency space for one or more cycles have seen mind-boggling speculative spikes and crashes and know just how volatile BTC and other digital currencies are. For example, in the final stretch of 2021, BTC was worth $69,000 per coin, but by the end of 2022, it had sunk to under $20,000.

为什么不呢？简而言之：波动性。那些在数字货币领域呆过一个或多个周期的人都见过令人难以置信的投机性飙升和崩溃，并且知道 BTC 和其他数字货币的波动性有多大。例如，在 2021 年最后一段时间，BTC 每枚硬币的价值为 69,000 美元，但到 2022 年底，它已跌至 20,000 美元以下。

In other words, in reality, El Salvador’s $600 million worth of BTC on its balance sheet means little. Not only is the asset illiquid, hence its volatility, but its value could be worth a fraction of that in a year should the market turn.

换句话说，实际上，萨尔瓦多资产负债表上价值 6 亿美元的 BTC 意义不大。该资产不仅缺乏流动性，因此具有波动性，而且如果市场发生转变，其价值可能会在一年内缩水一小部分。

In fact, it could be argued that Bukele’s BTC gambit has caused the need for the IMF loan he is seeking, at least in part. Had his government spent the $270 million it invested on much-needed healthcare, education, and infrastructure requirements, which are known to boost economic growth, the nation’s GDP might have grown faster, increasing tax receipts and shrinking the deficit as a percentage of GDP.

事实上，可以说，布克莱的 BTC 策略导致了他正在寻求的国际货币基金组织贷款的需求，至少部分是这样。如果他的政府将投资的 2.7 亿美元用于急需的医疗保健、教育和基础设施需求（众所周知，这些可以促进经济增长），那么国家的 GDP 可能会增长得更快，从而增加税收收入并缩小赤字占 GDP 的比例。

Yet, that’s not what happened. Instead, Bukele’s government gambled on a digital currency that added nothing to El Salvador’s real economy and did little for its balance sheet in the eyes of economists.

然而，事实并非如此。相反，布克莱政府把赌注押在了一种数字货币上，在经济学家看来，这种货币对萨尔瓦多的实体经济没有任何贡献，对其资产负债表也没有什么帮助。

A mindset problem in the BTC camp

BTC阵营的心态问题

The core of the issue here is a fundamental misunderstanding of economics in the small-block Bitcoin camp: the fiat value of an asset going up is not real economic growth. It’s a reminder of Adam Smith’s argument that money isn’t wealth; real wealth is the goods and services money can buy or control.

这里问题的核心是小区块比特币阵营对经济学的根本误解：资产的法币价值上涨并不是真正的经济增长。这让人想起亚当·斯密的论点：金钱不是财富，而是财富。真正的财富是金钱可以购买或控制的商品和服务。

Big block Bitcoiners like those in the BSV camp have argued this for over a decade. Bitcoin was designed as a peer-to-peer electronic cash system capable of micropayments and small, casual payments with virtually no fees. Using it as such would unleash enormous economic growth, making all manner of sub-dollar and even sub-cent transactions possible, creating new business models and a global peer-to-peer economy.

像 BSV 阵营中的大区块比特币支持者已经争论了十多年。比特币被设计为一种点对点电子现金系统，能够进行小额支付和小额随意支付，几乎不收取任何费用。如此利用它将释放巨大的经济增长，使各种低于美元甚至低于美分的交易成为可能，创造新的商业模式和全球点对点经济。

Had nations like El Salvador had access to such a system, there’s no telling what sort of GDP growth it might have experienced. As a nation that received over $8.1 billion in remittances in 2023, El Salvadors’ citizens would have had more cash in their pockets had the associated fees been eliminated, and spending that locally would have undoubtedly led to increased economic growth.

如果像萨尔瓦多这样的国家能够使用这样的系统，谁也说不准它会经历什么样的国内生产总值增长。作为一个在 2023 年收到超过 81 亿美元汇款的国家，如果取消相关费用，萨尔瓦多公民的口袋里将会有更多现金，而当地支出无疑会促进经济增长。

Better yet, the timestamped, immutable records the scalable Bitcoin blockchain enables would have made it much easier to show the transparency and good governance the IMF now demands.

更好的是，可扩展的比特币区块链所支持的带时间戳、不可变的记录将使人们更容易地展示国际货币基金组织现在所要求的透明度和良好治理。

While El Salvador’s President has accused his political opposition of missing the opportunity BTC presented, the real missed opportunity was in embracing it rather than the electronic cash system Bitcoin was supposed to be.

虽然萨尔瓦多总统指责他的政治反对派错过了比特币带来的机会，但真正错失的机会是拥抱比特币，而不是比特币本应成为的电子现金系统。

Fortunately, Satoshi Nakamoto’s system lives on as BSV, and those who understand and embrace it now will reap the rewards in the future.

幸运的是，中本聪的系统作为 BSV 继续存在，那些现在理解并拥抱它的人将在未来获得回报。