利率擔憂和減半恐慌導致比特幣暴跌，美元飆升至五天高點

隨著美元經歷 2023 年 2 月以來最強勁的五日漲幅，比特幣已經下跌，顯示這兩種資產之間可能存在反向關係。美元升值歸因於利率持續走高的預期，而比特幣的波動則源自於即將到來的4月20日減半事件，屆時每個區塊的BTC開採量將減少50%。

U.S. Dollar Soars to Five-Day High as Bitcoin Plunges Amidst Rising Interest Rates and Halving Jitters

美元飆升至五天高位，比特幣因利率上升和減半恐慌而暴跌

The United States dollar is poised for its most impressive five-day run since February 2023, while Bitcoin (BTC) has taken a significant hit over the same period. This contrasting performance stems from expectations of continued high interest rates and the impending Bitcoin halving on April 20.

美元有望迎來 2023 年 2 月以來最令人印象深刻的五日漲幅，而比特幣 (BTC) 則在同一時期遭受重大打擊。這種對比鮮明的表現源於對持續高利率和即將在 4 月 20 日比特幣減半的預期。

Dollar's Ascent Driven by Elevated Interest Rate Outlook

利率前景提升推動美元上漲

The dollar's strength is primarily attributed to market anticipations that interest rates will remain elevated for an extended period. As explained by trading resource The Kobeissi Letter, "Less than a month ago, markets were anticipating the Fed to start cutting in June. Higher for longer is now the base case."

美元走強主要歸因於市場預期利率將在較長時期內維持高位。正如交易資源 The Koheissi Letter 所解釋的那樣，“不到一個月前，市場預計聯準會將在 6 月開始降息。現在的基本情況是聯準會將在更長時間內降息。”

Higher interest rates typically attract foreign investors seeking higher returns on bonds and term deposits, bolstering demand for the dollar. This is evident in the recent surge of the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (BBDXY), which tracks the U.S. dollar's performance against a basket of 10 leading global currencies.

較高的利率通常會吸引尋求更高債券和定期存款回報的外國投資者，從而提振對美元的需求。彭博美元現貨指數 (BBDXY) 最近的飆升證明了這一點，該指數追蹤美元兌一籃子 10 種全球主要貨幣的表現。

Over the past five trading days, the BBDXY has climbed by approximately 2%, its most substantial increase in 14 months. The U.S. dollar index score stands at 106.34, up from 105.28 five days prior, indicating its appreciation against other major currencies like the euro, pound, and Japanese yen.

在過去的五個交易日中，BBDXY 上漲了約 2%，這是 14 個月來的最大漲幅。美元指數升至106.34，高於五天前的105.28，顯示美元兌歐元、英鎊和日圓等其他主要貨幣升值。

Bitcoin Dips Amidst Inverse Correlation with Dollar

比特幣在與美元負相關的情況下下跌

In contrast to the dollar's gains, Bitcoin has experienced a notable 9% price decrease over the past five days, dropping to $63,936 as of CoinMarketCap data. Historically, Bitcoin and the dollar have exhibited an inverse relationship, with Bitcoin demand typically rising when the dollar weakens.

與美元上漲形成鮮明對比的是，根據 CoinMarketCap 數據，過去五天比特幣價格顯著下跌 9%，跌至 63,936 美元。從歷史上看，比特幣和美元表現出反向關係，當美元走弱時，比特幣需求通常會上升。

However, this correlation has been less pronounced in recent times. Reuters reported on April 16 that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed concerns that the country's inflation rate, currently at 3.5%, is not moving toward the central bank's 2% target, suggesting that achieving that level of confidence "is likely to take longer than expected."

然而，這種相關性近年來不太明顯。路透社4月16日報道稱，聯準會主席鮑威爾對目前3.5%的國家通膨率並未朝著央行2%的目標邁進表示擔憂，暗示實現這一信心水平「可能需要比預期更長的時間」 」。

Halving Factor Weighs on Bitcoin

減半因素令比特幣承壓

Another factor influencing Bitcoin's performance is the upcoming halving event scheduled for April 20. This process involves a 50% reduction in the number of BTCs that can be mined per block, potentially affecting its supply and demand dynamics.

影響比特幣表現的另一個因素是即將於 4 月 20 日舉行的減半事件。

While the halving has historically been a bullish event for Bitcoin, investor sentiment surrounding this event has been more subdued compared to the previous halving in 2020. Three days before the 2020 halving, Bitcoin's dominance, which measures its market cap relative to other cryptocurrencies, stood 15% higher than its current level.

雖然減半歷來對比特幣來說是一個看漲事件，但與2020 年之前的減半相比，圍繞這一事件的投資者情緒更加低迷。 （衡量其相對於其他加密貨幣的市值）保持不變比目前水準高出 15%。

Market Sentiment Shifts as Crypto Fear and Greed Index Drops

隨著加密貨幣恐懼和貪婪指數下降，市場情緒發生變化

The five-day rise in the U.S. dollar has also impacted market sentiment in the cryptocurrency space. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which measures investor sentiment, has dropped by 11 points since April 10, indicating a shift towards fear and uncertainty.

美元連續五天上漲也影響了加密貨幣領域的市場情緒。衡量投資者情緒的加密貨幣恐懼和貪婪指數自 4 月 10 日以來已下降 11 點，顯示市場轉向恐懼和不確定性。

Conclusion

結論

The contrasting fortunes of the U.S. dollar and Bitcoin reflect the complex interplay of macroeconomic factors and market expectations. While the dollar continues to benefit from higher interest rate expectations, Bitcoin faces headwinds from both technical factors and the upcoming halving event. Investors should exercise caution and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.

美元和比特幣的命運對比反映了宏觀經濟因素和市場預期之間複雜的相互作用。雖然美元繼續受益於較高的利率預期，但比特幣面臨著技術因素和即將到來的減半事件的阻力。投資者在做出任何投資決定之前應謹慎行事並進行徹底研究。