利率担忧和减半恐慌导致比特币暴跌，美元飙升至五天高点

随着美元经历 2023 年 2 月以来最强劲的五日涨幅，比特币已经下跌，表明这两种资产之间可能存在反向关系。美元升值归因于利率持续走高的预期，而比特币的波动则源于即将到来的4月20日减半事件，届时每个区块的BTC开采量将减少50%。

U.S. Dollar Soars to Five-Day High as Bitcoin Plunges Amidst Rising Interest Rates and Halving Jitters

美元飙升至五天高位，比特币因利率上升和减半恐慌而暴跌

The United States dollar is poised for its most impressive five-day run since February 2023, while Bitcoin (BTC) has taken a significant hit over the same period. This contrasting performance stems from expectations of continued high interest rates and the impending Bitcoin halving on April 20.

美元有望迎来 2023 年 2 月以来最令人印象深刻的五日涨幅，而比特币 (BTC) 则在同一时期遭受重大打击。这种对比鲜明的表现源于对持续高利率和即将在 4 月 20 日比特币减半的预期。

Dollar's Ascent Driven by Elevated Interest Rate Outlook

利率前景提升推动美元上涨

The dollar's strength is primarily attributed to market anticipations that interest rates will remain elevated for an extended period. As explained by trading resource The Kobeissi Letter, "Less than a month ago, markets were anticipating the Fed to start cutting in June. Higher for longer is now the base case."

美元走强主要归因于市场预期利率将在较长时期内保持高位。正如交易资源 The Koheissi Letter 所解释的那样，“不到一个月前，市场预计美联储将在 6 月份开始降息。现在的基本情况是美联储将在更长时间内降息。”

Higher interest rates typically attract foreign investors seeking higher returns on bonds and term deposits, bolstering demand for the dollar. This is evident in the recent surge of the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (BBDXY), which tracks the U.S. dollar's performance against a basket of 10 leading global currencies.

较高的利率通常会吸引寻求更高债券和定期存款回报的外国投资者，从而提振对美元的需求。彭博美元现货指数 (BBDXY) 最近的飙升就证明了这一点，该指数追踪美元兑一篮子 10 种全球主要货币的表现。

Over the past five trading days, the BBDXY has climbed by approximately 2%, its most substantial increase in 14 months. The U.S. dollar index score stands at 106.34, up from 105.28 five days prior, indicating its appreciation against other major currencies like the euro, pound, and Japanese yen.

在过去的五个交易日中，BBDXY 上涨了约 2%，这是 14 个月来的最大涨幅。美元指数升至106.34，高于五天前的105.28，表明美元兑欧元、英镑和日元等其他主要货币升值。

Bitcoin Dips Amidst Inverse Correlation with Dollar

比特币在与美元负相关的情况下下跌

In contrast to the dollar's gains, Bitcoin has experienced a notable 9% price decrease over the past five days, dropping to $63,936 as of CoinMarketCap data. Historically, Bitcoin and the dollar have exhibited an inverse relationship, with Bitcoin demand typically rising when the dollar weakens.

与美元上涨形成鲜明对比的是，根据 CoinMarketCap 数据，过去五天比特币价格显着下跌 9%，跌至 63,936 美元。从历史上看，比特币和美元表现出反向关系，当美元走弱时，比特币需求通常会上升。

However, this correlation has been less pronounced in recent times. Reuters reported on April 16 that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed concerns that the country's inflation rate, currently at 3.5%, is not moving toward the central bank's 2% target, suggesting that achieving that level of confidence "is likely to take longer than expected."

然而，这种相关性近年来不太明显。路透社4月16日报道称，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔对目前3.5%的国家通胀率并未朝着央行2%的目标迈进表示担忧，暗示实现这一信心水平“可能需要比预期更长的时间” ”。

Halving Factor Weighs on Bitcoin

减半因素令比特币承压

Another factor influencing Bitcoin's performance is the upcoming halving event scheduled for April 20. This process involves a 50% reduction in the number of BTCs that can be mined per block, potentially affecting its supply and demand dynamics.

影响比特币表现的另一个因素是即将于 4 月 20 日举行的减半事件。这一过程涉及每个区块可开采的 BTC 数量减少 50%，可能会影响其供需动态。

While the halving has historically been a bullish event for Bitcoin, investor sentiment surrounding this event has been more subdued compared to the previous halving in 2020. Three days before the 2020 halving, Bitcoin's dominance, which measures its market cap relative to other cryptocurrencies, stood 15% higher than its current level.

虽然减半历来对比特币来说是一个看涨事件，但与 2020 年之前的减半相比，围绕这一事件的投资者情绪更加低迷。在 2020 年减半前三天，比特币的主导地位（衡量其相对于其他加密货币的市值）保持不变比目前水平高出 15%。

Market Sentiment Shifts as Crypto Fear and Greed Index Drops

随着加密货币恐惧和贪婪指数下降，市场情绪发生变化

The five-day rise in the U.S. dollar has also impacted market sentiment in the cryptocurrency space. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which measures investor sentiment, has dropped by 11 points since April 10, indicating a shift towards fear and uncertainty.

美元连续五天上涨也影响了加密货币领域的市场情绪。衡量投资者情绪的加密货币恐惧和贪婪指数自 4 月 10 日以来已下降 11 点，表明市场转向恐惧和不确定性。

Conclusion

结论

The contrasting fortunes of the U.S. dollar and Bitcoin reflect the complex interplay of macroeconomic factors and market expectations. While the dollar continues to benefit from higher interest rate expectations, Bitcoin faces headwinds from both technical factors and the upcoming halving event. Investors should exercise caution and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.

美元和比特币的命运对比反映了宏观经济因素和市场预期之间复杂的相互作用。虽然美元继续受益于较高的利率预期，但比特币面临着技术因素和即将到来的减半事件的阻力。投资者在做出任何投资决定之前应谨慎行事并进行彻底研究。