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2008年的金融危機誕生了比特幣的最早信徒。菲亞特貨幣體系在2025年的“自殺”也將促進鍊鍊球菌的增長
Within 100 days, stocks, bonds, and currencies suffered a triple kill, and the legal currency order is accelerating its collapse.
在100天內,股票,債券和貨幣遭受了三重殺戮,法律貨幣命令正在加速其崩潰。
The 2008 financial crisis gave birth to the earliest believers of Bitcoin. The "suicide" of the fiat currency system in 2025 will also promote the growth of on-chain stablecoins, especially non-US dollar, non-fully-reserved interest-bearing stablecoins (YBS).
2008年的金融危機誕生了比特幣的最早信徒。菲亞特貨幣體系在2025年的“自殺”還將促進鏈上穩定的鏈球菌的增長,尤其是非美國美元,非保留息息穩定股(YBS)。
However, non-full-reserve stablecoins are still in the theoretical realm, and the aftermath of the collapse of Luna-UST in 2022 is still lingering, but driven by capital efficiency, partial-reserve stablecoins will surely become the mainstream of the market.
但是,非儲備的穩定劑仍處於理論領域,而Lunaust在2022年崩潰的後果仍在徘徊,但在資本效率的驅動下,部分保留的穩定穩定者肯定會成為市場的主流。
Non-US dollar stablecoins are still in the trial stage, and the US dollar's global currency status is still widely recognized. In order to maintain industrial capacity and employment, the renminbi will not actively internationalize on a large scale, and replacing the US dollar will be a very long process.
非美國美元穩定股幣仍處於試用階段,美元的全球貨幣狀況仍然被廣泛認可。為了維持工業能力和就業,人民幣不會大規模積極地國際化,而取代美元將是一個很長的過程。
Based on the above two points, this article mainly examines the latest stage of existing stablecoins, that is, the overall appearance of YBS, a US dollar-based, fully-reserved on-chain stablecoin system, which contains the basic appearance of post-US dollar, non-fully-reserved stablecoins.
基於上述兩點,本文主要研究了現有穩定的穩定階段的最新階段,即YBS的總體外觀,YBS是一種基於美元的,完全保留的鍊鍊球菌系統,其中包含US後美元的基本外觀,非保留的穩定穩定劑。
The seigniorage manifests itself internally as inflation, commonly known as domestic debt which is not debt, and externally as the US dollar tidal cycle.
Seignierage在內部表現為通貨膨脹,通常稱為國內債務,不是債務,在外部為美元潮汐週期。
Trump abandons dollar hegemony
特朗普放棄了美元霸權
From a technical point of view, the issuance of US dollars is a counter-trade between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department, which then uses the credit relationship of commercial banks to amplify the money multiplier, creating different statistical levels of money circulation such as M0/M1/M2/M3...
從技術的角度來看,美元發行是美聯儲和財政部之間的反交易,然後使用商業銀行的信用關係來擴大貨幣乘數,從而創建了不同的統計貨幣流通水平,例如M0/M1/M1/M2/M3 ...
. In the past, the Fed would buy U.S. Treasury bonds to inject liquidity into the banking system, thereby increasing the money supply. However, this method was relatively slow and inefficient.
。過去,美聯儲會向我們購買美國國庫券,以將流動性注入銀行系統,從而增加貨幣供應量。但是,該方法相對較慢且效率低下。
To speed up the process, the Fed began using a new technique called "helicopter money," where they would directly credit the bank accounts of individuals and businesses with new money. This method was named after an anecdote about an economist who suggested dropping money from a helicopter to stimulate the economy during a recession.
為了加快流程的加快,美聯儲開始使用一種稱為“直升機資金”的新技術,他們將直接以新資金為個人和企業的銀行帳戶。這種方法是以一個關於經濟學家的軼事命名的,他建議從直升機上丟錢以刺激經濟衰退期間的經濟。
In essence, both techniques achieved the same goal: to increase the money supply and stimulate economic activity. However, helicopter money was a more radical and unconventional approach that drew criticism from some economists who argued that it would lead to inflation and other economic problems.
從本質上講,這兩種技術都實現了相同的目標:增加貨幣供應並刺激經濟活動。但是,直升機金錢是一種更加激進和非常規的方法,引起了一些經濟學家的批評,他們認為這將導致通貨膨脹和其他經濟問題。
Despite the controversy, helicopter money became a common monetary policy tool in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, as governments and central banks raced to mitigate the economic fallout of these crises. As the saying goes, necessity is the mother of invention, and the desperate measures taken to save the economy led to the creation of new monetary policy tools and a deeper understanding of the complexities of the global financial system.
儘管引起了爭議,但由於政府和中央銀行競爭減輕這些危機的經濟影響,直到2008年金融危機和Covid-19的大流行,直升機貨幣成為一種共同的貨幣政策工具。俗話說,必要性是發明的母親,為挽救經濟而採取的絕望措施導致創建了新的貨幣政策工具,並對全球金融體系的複雜性有了更深入的了解。
In this model, U.S. debt (T-Bills, T-Notes, T-Bonds) is divided into long and short terms, maintaining the slow inflation of the U.S. dollar and short-term currency stability. The U.S. debt interest rate becomes the pricing basis for the entire financial world, and the U.S. dollar becomes the world currency. The cost is the U.S. external deficit and the dependence of various countries on the dollar.
在此模型中,美國債務(T-Bills,T票,T-Bonds)分為長期和短期,保持了美元和短期貨幣穩定性的緩慢通貨膨脹。美國債務利率成為整個金融世界的定價基礎,美元成為世界貨幣。成本是美國的外部赤字和各個國家對美元的依賴。
The cost has always been two-way. The only product of the United States is actually the U.S. dollar itself, and countries around the world need to obtain the U.S. dollar and convert it into purchasing power.
費用一直是雙向的。美國唯一的產品實際上是美元本身,全世界國家需要獲得美元並將其轉換為購買力。
The purchasing power of the U.S. dollar will depreciate in the long term and will not be affected by Trump's will. Countries must obtain U.S. dollars to minimize transaction intermediary costs. Barter is not impossible, but it is more cost-effective to use U.S. dollars directly.
美元的購買力將長期貶值,不會受到特朗普意志的影響。各國必須獲得美元以最大程度地減少交易中間成本。易貨者並非不可能,但是直接使用美元更具成本效益。
The hard-earned U.S. dollars must be spent quickly, either on production or financial arbitrage, in order to preserve purchasing power and maintain the competitiveness of exports to the United States in the next stage.
為了保護購買力並保持下一階段的美國出口競爭力,必須快速花費來之不易的美元來生產或財務套利。
Now this cycle is being destroyed by Trump's Schrodinger-style tariff system. Trump is increasing tariffs and forcing Powell to cut interest rates. Countries no longer want to hold dollars and are fleeing the U.S. bond market. The dollar/U.S. bond has become a risky asset.
現在,這個週期被特朗普的施羅賓格風格的關稅制度摧毀。特朗普正在增加關稅,並迫使鮑威爾降低利率。國家不再想持有美元,而是逃離美國債券市場。美元/美國債券已成為風險的資產。
The slow inflation of the U.S. dollar is a way to collect seigniorage from various countries. Only when all countries are required to hold or partially invest in U.S. debt can the damage to the U.S. dollar itself be reduced.
美元的緩慢通貨膨脹是從各個國家收集Seignierage的一種方式。只有當所有國家都必須持有或部分投資美國債務時,才能減少對美元本身的損失。
Assume the following scenario:
假設以下情況:
In the above cycle, Alice's motivation is to exchange labor for U.S. dollars and
在上述週期中,愛麗絲的動機是將勞動交換為美元,
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