比特幣（BTC）的價格已經反彈，但出現的風險模式指向潛在的逆轉

比特幣（BTC）在4月15日攀升至85630美元，其最高水平在近兩週內，比每月低點低15.2％。

Bitcoin price has bounced back in the past few days, but an emerging risky pattern points to a potential reversal in the near term.

在過去的幾天中，比特幣價格已經反彈，但是新出現的風險模式表明，在短期內，潛在的逆轉。

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to $85,630 on April 15, its highest level in nearly two weeks and 15.2% above its monthly low.

比特幣（BTC）在4月15日上漲至85,630美元，其最高水平在近兩週內，比每月低點高15.2％。

The ongoing recovery happened after Donald Trump softened his stance on tariffs. He initially issued a 90-day pause on tariffs from over 70 countries.

唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）削弱了對關稅的立場，發生了持續的康復。他最初對70多個國家 /地區的關稅發出了90天的停頓。

Over the weekend, the Trump administration added that some electronics and semiconductors would be exempt from these levies. In his latest statement, Trump also pledged support for automakers navigating the ongoing tariff crisis.

在周末，特朗普政府補充說，某些電子設備和半導體將不受這些徵收。特朗普在最新聲明中還承諾支持汽車製造商在持續的關稅危機中導航。

This announcement contributed to further gains in the stock market, with futures tied to the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100 all trending higher.

這一公告導致了股票市場進一步的收益，期貨與標準普爾500指數，道瓊斯瓊斯和納斯達克100相關。

Bitcoin price faces a potential death cross risk

比特幣價格面臨潛在的死亡交叉風險

While Bitcoin’s rebound is encouraging, it now faces the risk of forming a death cross — a bearish technical pattern that occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average.

儘管比特幣的反彈令人鼓舞，但現在面臨形成死亡十字架的風險，這是一種看跌的技術模式，當50天移動平均線越過200天移動平均線時發生。

The gap between these two averages has narrowed to just 472 points, signaling a potential crossover. If this happens, Bitcoin could resume its downward trend and potentially retest this month’s low of $74,500 — about 13% below current levels.

這兩個平均值之間的差距已縮小到僅472點，這表明了潛在的交叉。如果發生這種情況，比特幣可能會恢復其下降趨勢，並有可能重新測試本月的低點74,500美元，比當前水平低約13％。

On the other hand, a breakout above both moving averages would invalidate the death cross and signal more upside, potentially pushing BTC toward the psychological level of $90,000.

另一方面，兩個移動平均上方的突破將使死亡十字架無效並發出更高的信號，從而有可能將BTC推向90,000美元的心理水平。

Adding to the risk, the S&P 500 index has also formed a death cross, a signal that historically points to more downside. The last time this occurred was in 2022, when the index fell by 17%.

標準普爾500指數增加了風險，還形成了死亡十字架，這一信號在歷史上表明了更不利的一面。最後一次發生是在2022年，當時該指數下降了17％。

Since Bitcoin and equities are both considered risk-on assets, a bearish signal in the stock market could weigh further on Bitcoin’s price.

由於比特幣和股票都被視為風險符合資產，因此股票市場上的看跌信號可能會進一步影響比特幣的價格。

Gold maintains its edge as a safe haven

黃金作為避風港保持優勢

Meanwhile, gold continues to perform well as investors seek out safe-haven assets. The precious metal has surged more than 20% this year, reaching a record high of $3,245. Goldman Sachs recently raised its gold price target to $3,700.

同時，隨著投資者尋求安全資產，黃金繼續表現良好。今年貴金屬飆升了20％以上，達到創紀錄的3,245美元。高盛（Goldman Sachs）最近將其黃金價格目標提高到3,700美元。

The rally has been fueled by strong demand from central banks, retail investors, and institutions. Countries like India, Turkey, Russia, and China have continued accumulating gold throughout 2024.

中央銀行，散戶投資者和機構的強勁需求激發了集會。整個2024年，印度，土耳其，俄羅斯和中國等國家一直積累黃金。

Similarly, top gold ETFs like the GLD and IAU have also attracted more inflows from retail and institutions. Therefore, there are signs that investors prefer gold to American stocks, bonds, and Bitcoin for their safety. The Swiss franc has also become a top safe haven as it surged to the highest point in over a decade.

同樣，像GLD和IAU這樣的頂級黃金ETF也吸引了零售和機構更多的流入。因此，有跡象表明，為了安全性，投資者更喜歡黃金，而不是美國股票，債券和比特幣。瑞士法郎也已成為最高的避風港，因為它在十多年來升至最高點。