比特币（BTC）的价格已经反弹，但出现的风险模式指向潜在的逆转

比特币（BTC）在4月15日攀升至85630美元，其最高水平在近两周内，比每月低点低15.2％。

Bitcoin price has bounced back in the past few days, but an emerging risky pattern points to a potential reversal in the near term.

在过去的几天中，比特币价格已经反弹，但是新出现的风险模式表明，在短期内，潜在的逆转。

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to $85,630 on April 15, its highest level in nearly two weeks and 15.2% above its monthly low.

比特币（BTC）在4月15日上涨至85,630美元，其最高水平在近两周内，比每月低点高15.2％。

The ongoing recovery happened after Donald Trump softened his stance on tariffs. He initially issued a 90-day pause on tariffs from over 70 countries.

唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）削弱了对关税的立场，发生了持续的康复。他最初对70多个国家 /地区的关税发出了90天的停顿。

Over the weekend, the Trump administration added that some electronics and semiconductors would be exempt from these levies. In his latest statement, Trump also pledged support for automakers navigating the ongoing tariff crisis.

在周末，特朗普政府补充说，某些电子设备和半导体将不受这些征收。特朗普在最新声明中还承诺支持汽车制造商在持续的关税危机中导航。

This announcement contributed to further gains in the stock market, with futures tied to the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100 all trending higher.

这一公告导致了股票市场进一步的收益，期货与标准普尔500指数，道琼斯琼斯和纳斯达克100相关。

Bitcoin price faces a potential death cross risk

比特币价格面临潜在的死亡交叉风险

While Bitcoin’s rebound is encouraging, it now faces the risk of forming a death cross — a bearish technical pattern that occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average.

尽管比特币的反弹令人鼓舞，但现在面临形成死亡十字架的风险，这是一种看跌的技术模式，当50天移动平均线越过200天移动平均线时发生。

The gap between these two averages has narrowed to just 472 points, signaling a potential crossover. If this happens, Bitcoin could resume its downward trend and potentially retest this month’s low of $74,500 — about 13% below current levels.

这两个平均值之间的差距已缩小到仅472点，这表明了潜在的交叉。如果发生这种情况，比特币可能会恢复其下降趋势，并有可能重新测试本月的低点74,500美元，比当前水平低约13％。

On the other hand, a breakout above both moving averages would invalidate the death cross and signal more upside, potentially pushing BTC toward the psychological level of $90,000.

另一方面，两个移动平均上方的突破将使死亡十字架无效并发出更高的信号，从而有可能将BTC推向90,000美元的心理水平。

Adding to the risk, the S&P 500 index has also formed a death cross, a signal that historically points to more downside. The last time this occurred was in 2022, when the index fell by 17%.

标准普尔500指数增加了风险，还形成了死亡十字架，这一信号在历史上表明了更不利的一面。最后一次发生是在2022年，当时该指数下降了17％。

Since Bitcoin and equities are both considered risk-on assets, a bearish signal in the stock market could weigh further on Bitcoin’s price.

由于比特币和股票都被视为风险符合资产，因此股票市场上的看跌信号可能会进一步影响比特币的价格。

Gold maintains its edge as a safe haven

黄金作为避风港保持优势

Meanwhile, gold continues to perform well as investors seek out safe-haven assets. The precious metal has surged more than 20% this year, reaching a record high of $3,245. Goldman Sachs recently raised its gold price target to $3,700.

同时，随着投资者寻求安全资产，黄金继续表现良好。今年贵金属飙升了20％以上，达到创纪录的3,245美元。高盛（Goldman Sachs）最近将其黄金价格目标提高到3,700美元。

The rally has been fueled by strong demand from central banks, retail investors, and institutions. Countries like India, Turkey, Russia, and China have continued accumulating gold throughout 2024.

中央银行，散户投资者和机构的强劲需求激发了集会。整个2024年，印度，土耳其，俄罗斯和中国等国家一直积累黄金。

Similarly, top gold ETFs like the GLD and IAU have also attracted more inflows from retail and institutions. Therefore, there are signs that investors prefer gold to American stocks, bonds, and Bitcoin for their safety. The Swiss franc has also become a top safe haven as it surged to the highest point in over a decade.

同样，像GLD和IAU这样的顶级黄金ETF也吸引了零售和机构更多的流入。因此，有迹象表明，为了安全性，投资者更喜欢黄金，而不是美国股票，债券和比特币。瑞士法郎也已成为最高的避风港，因为它在十多年来升至最高点。