加密價格已經進入熊市階段

Coinbase機構的一份新報告表明，加密價格已經進入了熊市階段。直到中部至第二季度2025年中期，潛在的恢復才被預期。

A new report by Coinbase Institutional suggests that crypto prices have entered a bear market phase, with potential recovery not fully expected until mid-to-late Q2 2025.

Coinbase機構的一份新報告表明，加密價格已經進入了熊市階段，直到2025年中期第2季度中期，潛在的恢復才能完全預期。

The April 15 report titled “How Do You Define a Crypto Bear Market?” notes that both Bitcoin (BTC) and the COIN50 index have recently broken below their respective 200-day moving averages (200DMA), signaling bearish long-term trends in the overall market.

4月15日的報告標題為“您如何定義加密熊市？”指出，比特幣（BTC）和COIN50指數最近都在各自的200天移動平均值（200DMA）以下打破，這標誌著總體市場中看跌的長期趨勢。

Both Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market are showing strong signals of a bear market according to Coinbase’s analysis of key technical indicators.

根據Coinbase對關鍵技術指標的分析，比特幣和更廣泛的加密貨幣市場都顯示出熊市的強烈信號。

The report examines multiple methods for identifying market cycles, including the 200-day moving average (200DMA), Bollinger Bands, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).

該報告研究了識別市場週期的多種方法，包括200天移動平均線（200DMA），Bollinger頻段和相對強度指數（RSI）。

They concluded that the 200DMA provides the most reliable framework for identifying sustained market trends, especially in the present market regime.

他們得出的結論是，200DMA為確定持續的市場趨勢提供了最可靠的框架，尤其是在當前的市場製度中。

The analysis reveals that Bitcoin’s recent steep decline, amounting to a 50% drop from November 2021 highs, qualifies as a bear market cycle starting in late March, based on the 200DMA model.

分析表明，比特幣最近的急劇下降，比2021年11月的高點下降了50％，這是根據200DMA模型從3月下旬開始的熊市週期。

However, the broader crypto market, as measured by the COIN50 index (which includes the top 50 tokens by market capitalization), has been “unequivocally trading in bear market territory since the end of February.”

但是，通過COIN50指數（包括市值的前50個令牌）衡量的更廣泛的加密市場“自2月底以來一直在熊市領土上進行毫無根據的交易。”

This disparity is seen in market performance data. The total crypto market cap (excluding Bitcoin) fell 41% from December highs, compared to a less than 20% decline in Bitcoin over the same period.

在市場績效數據中可以看到這種差異。加密市值（不包括比特幣）比12月的高點下降了41％，而同一時期比特幣下降了不到20％。

The report notes this difference “underscores the higher volatility and risk premium inherent to altcoins further down the risk curve.”

該報告指出，這種差異“強調了較高的波動性和風險溢價，而altcoins固有的風險曲線進一步降低了。”

Coinbase’s approach challenges the traditional equity market definition of a bear market as a 20% decline from recent highs.

Coinbase的方法對熊市的傳統股票市場定義挑戰，因為近期高點下降了20％。

The report argues this threshold is “somewhat arbitrary and certainly less applicable to crypto markets, which routinely experience 20% price swings in short periods that don’t necessarily signal true changes in the market regime.”

該報告認為，該門檻“有些任意，肯定不適用於加密貨幣市場，在短期內通常會經歷20％的價格波動，這不一定標誌著市場政權的真正變化。”

Macro Environment Creates Challenges for Crypto

宏環境為加密帶來了挑戰

The current bearish trend in crypto markets is being driven by broader macroeconomic factors according to Coinbase’s analysis.

根據Coinbase的分析，加密市場中目前的看跌趨勢是由更廣泛的宏觀經濟因素驅動的。

The report points to extreme negative sentiment that has developed “due to the onset of global tariffs and the potential for further escalations” as key contributors to the market downturn.

該報告指出，由於全球關稅的發作和進一步升級的潛力，這已經發展出了極端的負面情緒。

These tensions in the underlying structure occur from uncertainty in the wider economic environment, as traditional risk assets have been under chronic pressure from fiscal budget cuts and trade policies.

基礎結構中的這些緊張局勢來自更廣泛的經濟環境中的不確定性，因為傳統風險資產受到財政預算削減和貿易政策的慢性壓力。

This has created what the report terms “paralysis in investment decision making” that affects traditional and crypto markets.

這創建了報告術語“投資決策中的癱瘓”，影響傳統和加密市場。

With equities being under stress, the journey of recovery for cryptocurrencies remains difficult despite some positive trends on the regulatory side.

隨著股票承受壓力，儘管監管方面有一些積極的趨勢，但加密貨幣的恢復旅程仍然很困難。

The report states that during down times in traditional markets, crypto suffers amplified effects due to its 24/7 trading nature and its proclivity to act as a proxy for general risk sentiment during times when traditional markets are not open.

該報告指出，在傳統市場中，加密貨幣的24/7交易性質及其在傳統市場不開放的時候，其傾向是對一般風險情緒的代理。

Venture capital investment is also an indicator of market health. VC investment in crypto did increase in Q1 2025 from the last quarter.

風險投資也是市場健康的指標。從上個季度開始，VC對加密貨幣的投資確實在2025年第1季度增加。

However, it is still 50-60% below levels during the 2021-22 cycle peak. This decline “substantially constrains the onboarding of new capital into the ecosystem, especially on the altcoin side,” the report says.

但是，在2021-22週期峰期間，它仍然低於50-60％。報告說，這種下降“實質上將新資本的入門限制在生態系統中，尤其是在Altcoin方面。”

The analysis shows that previous crypto plunges have been more connected to issues in the traditional markets than we realize.

分析表明，以前的加密貨幣暴跌與傳統市場中的問題相比，比我們意識到的更多。

For example, US stocks fell 22% during the Federal Reserve interest rate hikes from January to November 2022. Bitcoin fell 76% over the same period – which is nearly 3.5 times stocks.

例如，美國股票在2022年1月至11月的美聯儲利率上下降了22％。同期比特幣下降了76％ - 近3.5倍。

Crypto Price to Recover in Latter Half of 2025

加密價格在2025年後期恢復

While the present bearish signals, the prognosis for Coinbase is not all doom and gloom for crypto investors.

雖然目前的看跌信號，但對加密投資者來說，共同基礎的預後並不是厄運和憂鬱。

The report suggests that while caution is advised in the short term, there could be light at the end of the tunnel by mid-to-late Q2 2025, potentially setting up a better 3Q25.

該報告表明，雖然在短期內提出謹慎的態度，但隧道末端可能會在2025年中期到第二季度，可能會有較好的3Q25。

Investors are advised to take a short-term approach when it comes to the markets during the time of uncertainty.

建議投資者在不確定性期間對市場採取短期方法。

Experts at Coinbase are sure that when the sentiment finally resets, it’s likely to occur fairly rapidly, leaving space for shrewd investors to gain.

Coinbase的專家可以肯定的是，當觀點最終重置時，可能會很快發生，這為精明的投資者提供了空間。

This forecast is consistent with the pattern in the history of cryptocurrency markets. Recovery phases have been happening with more velocity than in traditional markets.

該預測與加密貨幣市場歷史上的模式一致。恢復階段的發生速度比傳統市場的速度更高。

According to the report, although the current defensive position is justified, the team remains constructive for the second half of 2025.

根據該報告，儘管目前的防守位置是合理的，但在2025年下半年，該團隊仍然建設性。