加密价格已经进入熊市阶段

Coinbase机构的一份新报告表明，加密价格已经进入了熊市阶段。直到中部至第二季度2025年中期，潜在的恢复才被预期。

A new report by Coinbase Institutional suggests that crypto prices have entered a bear market phase, with potential recovery not fully expected until mid-to-late Q2 2025.

Coinbase机构的一份新报告表明，加密价格已经进入了熊市阶段，直到2025年中期第2季度中期，潜在的恢复才能完全预期。

The April 15 report titled “How Do You Define a Crypto Bear Market?” notes that both Bitcoin (BTC) and the COIN50 index have recently broken below their respective 200-day moving averages (200DMA), signaling bearish long-term trends in the overall market.

4月15日的报告标题为“您如何定义加密熊市？”指出，比特币（BTC）和COIN50指数最近都在各自的200天移动平均值（200DMA）以下打破，这标志着总体市场中看跌的长期趋势。

Both Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market are showing strong signals of a bear market according to Coinbase’s analysis of key technical indicators.

根据Coinbase对关键技术指标的分析，比特币和更广泛的加密货币市场都显示出熊市的强烈信号。

The report examines multiple methods for identifying market cycles, including the 200-day moving average (200DMA), Bollinger Bands, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).

该报告研究了识别市场周期的多种方法，包括200天移动平均线（200DMA），Bollinger频段和相对强度指数（RSI）。

They concluded that the 200DMA provides the most reliable framework for identifying sustained market trends, especially in the present market regime.

他们得出的结论是，200DMA为确定持续的市场趋势提供了最可靠的框架，尤其是在当前的市场制度中。

The analysis reveals that Bitcoin’s recent steep decline, amounting to a 50% drop from November 2021 highs, qualifies as a bear market cycle starting in late March, based on the 200DMA model.

分析表明，比特币最近的急剧下降，比2021年11月的高点下降了50％，这是根据200DMA模型从3月下旬开始的熊市周期。

However, the broader crypto market, as measured by the COIN50 index (which includes the top 50 tokens by market capitalization), has been “unequivocally trading in bear market territory since the end of February.”

但是，通过COIN50指数（包括市值的前50个令牌）衡量的更广泛的加密市场“自2月底以来一直在熊市领土上进行毫无根据的交易。”

This disparity is seen in market performance data. The total crypto market cap (excluding Bitcoin) fell 41% from December highs, compared to a less than 20% decline in Bitcoin over the same period.

在市场绩效数据中可以看到这种差异。加密市值（不包括比特币）比12月的高点下降了41％，而同一时期比特币下降了不到20％。

The report notes this difference “underscores the higher volatility and risk premium inherent to altcoins further down the risk curve.”

该报告指出，这种差异“强调了较高的波动性和风险溢价，而altcoins固有的风险曲线进一步降低了。”

Coinbase’s approach challenges the traditional equity market definition of a bear market as a 20% decline from recent highs.

Coinbase的方法对熊市的传统股票市场定义挑战，因为近期高点下降了20％。

The report argues this threshold is “somewhat arbitrary and certainly less applicable to crypto markets, which routinely experience 20% price swings in short periods that don’t necessarily signal true changes in the market regime.”

该报告认为，该门槛“有些任意，肯定不适用于加密货币市场，在短期内通常会经历20％的价格波动，这不一定标志着市场政权的真正变化。”

Macro Environment Creates Challenges for Crypto

宏环境为加密带来了挑战

The current bearish trend in crypto markets is being driven by broader macroeconomic factors according to Coinbase’s analysis.

根据Coinbase的分析，加密市场中目前的看跌趋势是由更广泛的宏观经济因素驱动的。

The report points to extreme negative sentiment that has developed “due to the onset of global tariffs and the potential for further escalations” as key contributors to the market downturn.

该报告指出，由于全球关税的发作和进一步升级的潜力，这已经发展出了极端的负面情绪。

These tensions in the underlying structure occur from uncertainty in the wider economic environment, as traditional risk assets have been under chronic pressure from fiscal budget cuts and trade policies.

基础结构中的这些紧张局势来自更广泛的经济环境中的不确定性，因为传统风险资产受到财政预算削减和贸易政策的慢性压力。

This has created what the report terms “paralysis in investment decision making” that affects traditional and crypto markets.

这创建了报告术语“投资决策中的瘫痪”，影响传统和加密市场。

With equities being under stress, the journey of recovery for cryptocurrencies remains difficult despite some positive trends on the regulatory side.

随着股票承受压力，尽管监管方面有一些积极的趋势，但加密货币的恢复旅程仍然很困难。

The report states that during down times in traditional markets, crypto suffers amplified effects due to its 24/7 trading nature and its proclivity to act as a proxy for general risk sentiment during times when traditional markets are not open.

该报告指出，在传统市场中，加密货币的24/7交易性质及其在传统市场不开放的时候，其倾向是对一般风险情绪的代理。

Venture capital investment is also an indicator of market health. VC investment in crypto did increase in Q1 2025 from the last quarter.

风险投资也是市场健康的指标。从上个季度开始，VC对加密货币的投资确实在2025年第1季度增加。

However, it is still 50-60% below levels during the 2021-22 cycle peak. This decline “substantially constrains the onboarding of new capital into the ecosystem, especially on the altcoin side,” the report says.

但是，在2021-22周期峰期间，它仍然低于50-60％。报告说，这种下降“实质上将新资本的入门限制在生态系统中，尤其是在Altcoin方面。”

The analysis shows that previous crypto plunges have been more connected to issues in the traditional markets than we realize.

分析表明，以前的加密货币暴跌与传统市场中的问题相比，比我们意识到的更多。

For example, US stocks fell 22% during the Federal Reserve interest rate hikes from January to November 2022. Bitcoin fell 76% over the same period – which is nearly 3.5 times stocks.

例如，美国股票在2022年1月至11月的美联储利率上下降了22％。同期比特币下降了76％ - 近3.5倍。

Crypto Price to Recover in Latter Half of 2025

加密价格在2025年后期恢复

While the present bearish signals, the prognosis for Coinbase is not all doom and gloom for crypto investors.

虽然目前的看跌信号，但对加密投资者来说，共同基础的预后并不是厄运和忧郁。

The report suggests that while caution is advised in the short term, there could be light at the end of the tunnel by mid-to-late Q2 2025, potentially setting up a better 3Q25.

该报告表明，虽然在短期内提出谨慎的态度，但隧道末端可能会在2025年中期到第二季度，可能会有较好的3Q25。

Investors are advised to take a short-term approach when it comes to the markets during the time of uncertainty.

建议投资者在不确定性期间对市场采取短期方法。

Experts at Coinbase are sure that when the sentiment finally resets, it’s likely to occur fairly rapidly, leaving space for shrewd investors to gain.

Coinbase的专家可以肯定的是，当观点最终重置时，可能会很快发生，这为精明的投资者提供了空间。

This forecast is consistent with the pattern in the history of cryptocurrency markets. Recovery phases have been happening with more velocity than in traditional markets.

该预测与加密货币市场历史上的模式一致。恢复阶段的发生速度比传统市场的速度更高。

According to the report, although the current defensive position is justified, the team remains constructive for the second half of 2025.

根据该报告，尽管目前的防守位置是合理的，但在2025年下半年，该团队仍然建设性。