中國提高財政和貨幣刺激，以消費和減輕貿易戰爭的影響

這種中央銀行刺激措施通常會導致全球流動性增加，這可能會溢出到包括比特幣在內的各種風險資產中。

China unveiled plans on Wednesday to ramp up fiscal and monetary stimulus in a bid to boost consumption and mitigate the effects of an escalating trade war with the United States. Such central bank stimulus measures often lead to increased global liquidity, which can spill over into various risk assets, including bitcoin.

中國周三宣布了計劃加強財政和貨幣刺激，以增加消費和減輕與美國的貿易戰不斷升級的影響。這種中央銀行刺激措施通常會導致全球流動性增加，這可能會溢出到包括比特幣在內的各種風險資產中。

Historically, expansive stimulus policies in major economies have coincided with bullish trends in the cryptocurrency markets. A study by S&P Global found that both bullish and bearish trends in the crypto market have occurred during periods of ultra-loose monetary policy and significant tightening.

從歷史上看，主要經濟體的廣泛刺激政策與加密貨幣市場的看漲趨勢相吻合。 S＆P Global的一項研究發現，在超浮動貨幣政策和大幅收緊時期，加密貨幣市場的看漲和看跌趨勢已經發生。

In September 2024, bitcoin surged 12.3%, not bad for one month, and clocked one of its best September performances. This rally aligned with China’s previous stimulus efforts, which included cutting short-term interest rates and reducing banks' reserve requirements to support its housing and equity markets. Additionally, TradingView data indicates a positive correlation between bitcoin’s price and the People's Bank of China’s (PBOC) balance sheet over the past eight years.

2024年9月，比特幣飆升了12.3％，一個月的時間還不錯，並獲得了9月最佳表演之一。這次集會與中國以前的刺激努力保持一致，其中包括降低短期利率以及減少銀行的儲備要求，以支持其住房和股票市場。此外，TradingView數據表明比特幣的價格與中國人民銀行（PBOC）的資產負債表之間存在正相關。

A Nexo spokesperson highlighted the potential implications of China's latest stimulus for alternative assets.

NEXO發言人強調了中國最新刺激對替代資產的潛在影響。

"In previous instances when China has ramped up monetary stimulus and injected excess liquidity into the system, in 2015 and in 2020, excess liquidity found its way into alternative assets," the spokesperson told The Block. "Such stimulus could have broader implications for global markets, increasing appetite across equities and alternative assets."

發言人告訴該街區：“在以前的情況下，中國增加了貨幣刺激並將過量的流動性注入了該系統，並在2015年和2020年將過多的流動性進入了替代資產。” “這種刺激可能對全球市場具有更廣泛的影響，從而增加股票和替代資產的食慾。”

However, the Nexo spokesperson also cautioned that China’s strict regulatory controls limit direct participation in crypto markets.

但是，NEXO發言人還警告說，中國嚴格的監管控制限制了直接參與加密貨幣市場。

"State-backed alternatives may absorb some of the liquidity, or capital could flow into traditional safe-haven assets like gold," they added.

他們補充說：“國家支持的替代方案可能會吸收一些流動性，或者資本可以流入傳統的避風港資產等資產。”

On Wednesday, China’s annual government work report announced a 5% GDP growth target, a fiscal deficit target of 4% of GDP, and a focus on boosting private consumption through various measures.

週三，中國的年度政府工作報告宣布了GDP增長目標5％，財政赤字目標佔GDP的4％，重點是通過各種措施來促進私人消費。

"China remains in a slow positive economic momentum, not a boom," Nansen Principal Research Analyst Aurelie Barthere told The Block.

南森（Nansen）首席研究分析師奧雷利·巴特雷（Aurelie Barthere）告訴該街區：“中國仍然處於慢速積極的經濟勢頭，而不是繁榮的潮流。”

So far, she added, Chinese developments do not weigh as much as U.S. policy changes for crypto markets, despite positive signaling around AI investment by the central government.

她補充說，到目前為止，儘管中央政府圍繞AI投資的積極信號，儘管中國的發展對加密市場的政策變化不如美國政策變化。

China braces for Trump tariff impact

特朗普關稅影響的中國牙套

According to Reuters, Chinese Premier Li Qiang, speaking at the opening of the annual meeting of China's parliament, warned that "changes unseen in a century are unfolding across the world at a faster pace." The ongoing trade war, which began with U.S. President Donald Trump's imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods in 2018, continues to threaten China’s industrial sector. This challenge is further complicated by weak domestic consumption and a deteriorating, debt-laden property market, rendering China’s economy increasingly vulnerable.

據路透社報導，中國總理李·齊安（Li Qiang）在中國議會年度會議的開幕式上發表講話，警告說：“一個世紀以來看不見的變化正在以更快的速度展開。”持續的貿易戰爭始於美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）在2018年對中國商品的關稅，繼續威脅中國的工業部門。由於國內消費疲軟和債務不斷的房地產市場惡化，使中國的經濟越來越脆弱，這一挑戰更加複雜。

On the global growth front, analysts remain cautious in terms of risk asset appreciation.

在全球增長方面，分析師在風險資產升值方面仍然謹慎。

"From a pure macro perspective, bitcoin's performance appears to be most dominated by global growth expectations," Bitwise European Head of Research Europe André Dragosch noted.

比特歐洲研究歐洲研究負責人安德烈·德拉格斯（AndréDragosch）指出：“從純粹的宏觀角度來看，比特幣的表現似乎最受了全球增長期望。”

And those expectations have recently been repressed due to the threat of further U.S. tariffs, he added.

他補充說，由於進一步的美國關稅威脅，這些期望最近受到壓制。

"If we do see a broad-based deterioration in global growth expectations, I think that would factor negatively into bitcoin's performance," Dragosch said.

Dragosch說：“如果我們確實看到了全球增長期望的基礎廣泛的惡化，我認為這將對比特幣的表現負面影響。”

"With U.S. inflation data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision looming, it is time to brace for further turbulence in the markets this week," cryptocurrency and financial markets analyst Richard Ptardio told The Block.

加密貨幣和金融市場分析師理查德·帕迪奧（Richard Ptardio）告訴該街區：“隨著美國通貨膨脹數據和美聯儲的利率決策迫在眉睫，現在是時候在本週的市場上進行進一步的動盪。”

"A prolonged consolidation for bitcoin might be the best we can hope for over the coming months as the cryptocurrency attempts to build a base for the next leg of its bull market."

“長時間的比特幣合併可能是我們希望在接下來的幾個月中最好的選擇，因為加密貨幣試圖為下一個牛市的下一個領域建立基礎。”