分析師：比特幣暴漲的真正動力是中國的貨幣外流，而不是ETF

比特幣近期的飆升主要歸因於中國的貨幣流出，而不是美國ETF的批准。儘管中國政府對外幣交易實施嚴格限制，但投資者仍在轉向比特幣作為替代資產，特別是由於人民幣貶值和其他經濟挑戰。這種趨勢預計將持續下去，分析師預測比特幣的價值將在未來六個月內翻倍。

Unveiling the True Driver of Bitcoin's Meteoric Rise: China's Currency Exodus, Not ETFs

揭示比特幣暴漲的真正驅動力：中國的貨幣外流，而不是ETF

The meteoric rise of Bitcoin, defying market expectations, has sparked a fervent debate over the underlying catalyst behind its unprecedented surge. While the approval of spot ETFs in the United States has garnered significant attention, analysts at CoinFactiva reveal a startling truth: it is China's colossal currency outflow, not ETFs, that has fueled Bitcoin's remarkable ascent.

比特幣的迅速崛起超出了市場預期，引發了對其前所未有的飆升背後潛在催化劑的激烈爭論。雖然現貨ETF在美國的批准引起了廣泛關注，但CoinFactiva的分析師揭示了一個令人震驚的事實：推動比特幣顯著上漲的是中國的巨額貨幣流出，而不是ETF。

China's Currency Exodus: A Surge of Capital Seeking Refuge

中國貨幣外逃：尋求庇護的資本激增

China's currency outflow has reached staggering levels unseen since 2015, with a record-shattering $75 billion flowing out in October 2023. This surge coincided with Bitcoin trading at $27,000, marking the beginning of a 2.7-fold increase over the subsequent six months. In March 2024, the currency outflow regained momentum, reaching $39 billion.

中國的貨幣流出已達到2015年以來從未見過的驚人水平，2023年10月流出量達到創紀錄的750億美元。開始成長2.7倍。 2024年3月，貨幣外流重拾勢頭，達390億美元。

The reasons behind this unprecedented capital exodus are multifaceted. Stringent restrictions imposed on Chinese citizens regarding the withdrawal and use of currency abroad have played a significant role. For instance, carrying a cash sum exceeding $5,000 out of the country requires separate permission, while ATM withdrawals abroad are capped at ¥100,000 per year (~$13,800).

這種史無前例的資本外流背後的原因是多方面的。對中國公民在境外提取和使用貨幣的嚴格限制發揮了重要作用。例如，攜帶超過 5,000 美元的現金出境需要單獨許可，而境外 ATM 提款每年上限為 100,000 日元（約 13,800 美元）。

Against this backdrop, cryptocurrency has emerged as a preferred instrument for many Chinese citizens seeking to circumvent these limitations and safeguard their assets amidst the devaluation of the yuan, prolonged stock market declines, and real estate market crises. China's investment potential is colossal, with capital volume nearly three times that of the United States.

在此背景下，加密貨幣已成為許多中國公民在人民幣貶值、股市長期下跌和房地產市場危機中尋求規避這些限制並保護資產的首選工具。中國投資潛力巨大，資本規模接近美國的三倍。

Alternative Routes and P2P Markets: Investors Seek Workarounds

替代途徑和 P2P 市場：投資者尋求解決方法

Despite the ban on financial institutions within China conducting cryptocurrency operations, the thirst for investment has driven individuals to seek alternative routes. The P2P market has become a bustling hub for Chinese investors seeking exposure to digital assets.

儘管中國禁止金融機構進行加密貨幣業務，但對投資的渴望驅使個人尋求替代途徑。 P2P 市場已成為尋求數位資產投資的中國投資者的繁華中心。

While these challenges persist, Zerohedge, a renowned financial news outlet, predicts that the relentless pace of currency outflow from China will propel Bitcoin to double its current value within the next six months.

儘管這些挑戰仍然存在，但著名財經新聞媒體 Zerohedge 預測，中國貨幣的持續流出將推動比特幣在未來六個月內使其當前價值翻倍。

Imperfections of the Modern Financial System and the Demise of Fiat Currency

現代金融體系的不完全與法定貨幣的消亡

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes shares a similar perspective, casting doubt on the stability of the entire modern financial system and the steady devaluation of national currencies. He predicts that fiat money will be printed indefinitely until the system undergoes a fundamental reset.

BitMEX 聯合創辦人 Arthur Hayes 也持類似的觀點，他對整個現代金融體系的穩定性和各國貨幣的穩定貶值表示懷疑。他預測法定貨幣將無限期地印製，直到系統經歷根本重置。

Hayes highlights the case of the United States, where money printing is expected to intensify, exacerbating the growing gap between government revenues and spending. This year, the imbalance is projected to widen due to substantial expenditures on foreign policy, defense, and presidential elections.

海耶斯強調了美國的情況，預計美國印鈔將會加劇，加劇政府收入與支出之間日益擴大的差距。今年，由於外交政策、國防和總統選舉的大量支出，預計失衡將會擴大。

This relentless printing of fiat currency will inevitably weaken the US dollar against "hard" assets like gold and Bitcoin. According to Hayes, this dynamic will ultimately drive cryptocurrency prices to unprecedented heights, with Bitcoin potentially reaching the $1 million mark in the foreseeable future.

這種無情的印製法定貨幣將不可避免地削弱美元兌黃金和比特幣等「硬」資產的匯率。 Hayes 表示，這種動態最終將推動加密貨幣價格達到前所未有的高度，比特幣可能在可預見的未來達到 100 萬美元大關。

Conclusion: Embracing the Inevitable Shift

結論：擁抱不可避免的轉變

The analysis presented by CoinFactiva and other industry experts underscores the profound impact of China's currency exodus on the rise of Bitcoin. Despite the challenges posed by regulatory restrictions, Chinese investors have found innovative ways to access the cryptocurrency market.

CoinFactiva 和其他行業專家的分析強調了中國的貨幣外流對比特幣崛起的深遠影響。儘管面臨監管限制帶來的挑戰，中國投資者仍然找到了進入加密貨幣市場的創新方法。

As the world grapples with the imperfections of the modern financial system and the erosion of fiat currencies, Bitcoin and other digital assets are poised to play an increasingly prominent role. Investors and financial institutions alike must recognize this paradigm shift and adapt accordingly to capitalize on the transformative power of cryptocurrency.

隨著世界努力應對現代金融體系的缺陷和法定貨幣的侵蝕，比特幣和其他數位資產將發揮越來越重要的作用。投資者和金融機構都必須認識到這種範式轉變並相應地進行調整，以利用加密貨幣的變革力量。