分析师：比特币暴涨的真正推动力是中国的货币外流，而不是ETF

比特币近期的飙升主要归因于中国的货币流出，而不是美国ETF的批准。尽管中国政府对外币交易实施严格限制，但投资者仍在转向比特币作为替代资产，特别是由于人民币贬值和其他经济挑战。这种趋势预计将持续下去，分析师预测比特币的价值将在未来六个月内翻倍。

Unveiling the True Driver of Bitcoin's Meteoric Rise: China's Currency Exodus, Not ETFs

揭示比特币暴涨的真正驱动力：中国的货币外流，而不是ETF

The meteoric rise of Bitcoin, defying market expectations, has sparked a fervent debate over the underlying catalyst behind its unprecedented surge. While the approval of spot ETFs in the United States has garnered significant attention, analysts at CoinFactiva reveal a startling truth: it is China's colossal currency outflow, not ETFs, that has fueled Bitcoin's remarkable ascent.

比特币的迅速崛起超出了市场预期，引发了对其前所未有的飙升背后潜在催化剂的激烈争论。虽然现货ETF在美国的批准引起了广泛关注，但CoinFactiva的分析师揭示了一个令人震惊的事实：推动比特币显着上涨的是中国的巨额货币流出，而不是ETF。

China's Currency Exodus: A Surge of Capital Seeking Refuge

中国货币外逃：寻求避难的资本激增

China's currency outflow has reached staggering levels unseen since 2015, with a record-shattering $75 billion flowing out in October 2023. This surge coincided with Bitcoin trading at $27,000, marking the beginning of a 2.7-fold increase over the subsequent six months. In March 2024, the currency outflow regained momentum, reaching $39 billion.

中国的货币流出已达到2015年以来从未见过的惊人水平，2023年10月流出量达到创纪录的750亿美元。这一激增恰逢比特币交易价格达到27,000美元，标志着随后六个月开始增长2.7倍。 2024年3月，货币外流重拾势头，达到390亿美元。

The reasons behind this unprecedented capital exodus are multifaceted. Stringent restrictions imposed on Chinese citizens regarding the withdrawal and use of currency abroad have played a significant role. For instance, carrying a cash sum exceeding $5,000 out of the country requires separate permission, while ATM withdrawals abroad are capped at ¥100,000 per year (~$13,800).

这种史无前例的资本外流背后的原因是多方面的。对中国公民在境外提取和使用货币的严格限制发挥了重要作用。例如，携带超过 5,000 美元的现金出境需要单独许可，而境外 ATM 取款每年上限为 100,000 日元（约 13,800 美元）。

Against this backdrop, cryptocurrency has emerged as a preferred instrument for many Chinese citizens seeking to circumvent these limitations and safeguard their assets amidst the devaluation of the yuan, prolonged stock market declines, and real estate market crises. China's investment potential is colossal, with capital volume nearly three times that of the United States.

在此背景下，加密货币已成为许多中国公民在人民币贬值、股市长期下跌和房地产市场危机中寻求规避这些限制并保护资产的首选工具。中国投资潜力巨大，资本规模接近美国的三倍。

Alternative Routes and P2P Markets: Investors Seek Workarounds

替代途径和 P2P 市场：投资者寻求解决方法

Despite the ban on financial institutions within China conducting cryptocurrency operations, the thirst for investment has driven individuals to seek alternative routes. The P2P market has become a bustling hub for Chinese investors seeking exposure to digital assets.

尽管中国禁止金融机构开展加密货币业务，但对投资的渴望驱使个人寻求替代途径。 P2P 市场已成为寻求数字资产投资的中国投资者的繁华中心。

While these challenges persist, Zerohedge, a renowned financial news outlet, predicts that the relentless pace of currency outflow from China will propel Bitcoin to double its current value within the next six months.

尽管这些挑战仍然存在，但著名财经新闻媒体 Zerohedge 预测，中国货币的持续流出将推动比特币在未来六个月内使其当前价值翻倍。

Imperfections of the Modern Financial System and the Demise of Fiat Currency

现代金融体系的不完善与法定货币的消亡

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes shares a similar perspective, casting doubt on the stability of the entire modern financial system and the steady devaluation of national currencies. He predicts that fiat money will be printed indefinitely until the system undergoes a fundamental reset.

BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 也持有类似的观点，他对整个现代金融体系的稳定性和各国货币的稳步贬值表示怀疑。他预测法定货币将无限期地印制，直到系统经历根本性重置。

Hayes highlights the case of the United States, where money printing is expected to intensify, exacerbating the growing gap between government revenues and spending. This year, the imbalance is projected to widen due to substantial expenditures on foreign policy, defense, and presidential elections.

海耶斯强调了美国的情况，预计美国印钞将会加剧，从而加剧政府收入与支出之间日益扩大的差距。今年，由于外交政策、国防和总统选举方面的大量支出，预计失衡将会扩大。

This relentless printing of fiat currency will inevitably weaken the US dollar against "hard" assets like gold and Bitcoin. According to Hayes, this dynamic will ultimately drive cryptocurrency prices to unprecedented heights, with Bitcoin potentially reaching the $1 million mark in the foreseeable future.

这种无情的印制法定货币将不可避免地削弱美元兑黄金和比特币等“硬”资产的汇率。 Hayes 表示，这种动态最终将推动加密货币价格达到前所未有的高度，比特币可能在可预见的未来达到 100 万美元大关。

Conclusion: Embracing the Inevitable Shift

结论：拥抱不可避免的转变

The analysis presented by CoinFactiva and other industry experts underscores the profound impact of China's currency exodus on the rise of Bitcoin. Despite the challenges posed by regulatory restrictions, Chinese investors have found innovative ways to access the cryptocurrency market.

CoinFactiva 和其他行业专家的分析强调了中国的货币外流对比特币崛起的深远影响。尽管面临监管限制带来的挑战，中国投资者仍然找到了进入加密货币市场的创新方式。

As the world grapples with the imperfections of the modern financial system and the erosion of fiat currencies, Bitcoin and other digital assets are poised to play an increasingly prominent role. Investors and financial institutions alike must recognize this paradigm shift and adapt accordingly to capitalize on the transformative power of cryptocurrency.

随着世界努力应对现代金融体系的缺陷和法定货币的侵蚀，比特币和其他数字资产将发挥越来越重要的作用。投资者和金融机构都必须认识到这种范式转变并相应地进行调整，以利用加密货币的变革力量。