加拿大總理賈斯汀·特魯多的辭職日期現在已成為 Polymarket 的投注事件

對於加拿大總理賈斯汀·杜魯道來說，後者似乎迫在眉睫。現在，Polymarket 的投注者正在爭論他到底何時宣布辭職。

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau may be preparing to announce his resignation imminently, according to multiple reports and betting markets on Polymarket.

根據 Polymarket 的多份報告和博彩市場，加拿大總理賈斯汀·杜魯道可能準備立即宣布辭職。

Two contracts on Polymarket with lower six-figures of volume attached to them are asking if Trudeau will be gone by February or April, and another from December asks if opposition parties will trigger an election by the spring.

Polymarket 上的兩份合約成交量低於六位數，詢問杜魯道是否會在 2 月或 4 月下台，而另一份 12 月的合約則詢問反對黨是否會在春季之前引發選舉。

Interest in the Prime Minister's fate surged on Monday after two scoops from Canada's largest newspapers put his resignation date to be either Monday or before Wednesday.

加拿大最大報紙的兩則獨家新聞將總理的辭職日期定為週一或週三之前，週一，人們對總理命運的興趣激增。

The Toronto Star says the resignation is coming as early as Monday, while the Globe and Mail, which had it first, said the announcement would come before a national Liberal Party caucus meeting scheduled for Wednesday.

《多倫多星報》稱，辭職最早將於週一公佈，而最先報道此事的《環球郵報》則表示，這一消息將在定於週三舉行的全國自由黨黨團會議之前宣布。

Polymarket bettors are skeptical on whether the announcement could come earlier. One contract, which is betting on Monday has just over $45,000 in volume and only gives a 24% chance the week will start with Trudeau signing off.

Polymarket 投注者對這項公告能否提前發布持懷疑態度。週一押注的一份合約成交量剛超過 45,000 美元，本週開始杜魯道簽字的可能性只有 24%。

Another, asking if the Prime Minister will step down by Wednesday gives it a 72% chance but that specific contract has a much smaller volume at around $10,000. Finally, a third, asking if he'll be gone by Friday puts the chance of that happening at 80%.

另一項詢問總理是否會在周三之前下台的可能性為 72%，但具體合約的金額要小得多，約為 10,000 美元。最後，第三個問他是否會在周五之前離開的人表示，這種情況發生的可能性為 80%。

While the Toronto Star and the Globe and Mail both have their sources that say a resignation is imminent, Reuters, which it says spoke to someone different, says Trudeau hasn't yet made up his mind.

雖然《多倫多星報》和《環球郵報》都有消息來源稱杜魯道即將辭職，但路透社表示，杜魯道尚未下定決心。

Angus Reid, a Canadian pollster, gives the Prime Minister a 22% approval rating. Polling aggregators show that if an election were to be held today, Trudeau's Liberals would be decimated, only winning 46 seats while the Conservatives would take 225 giving them a majority in Canada's Parliament.

加拿大民調專家安格斯·里德 (Angus Reid) 給予總理 22% 的支持率。民調總結顯示，如果今天舉行選舉，杜魯道領導的自由黨將慘敗，僅贏得 46 個席位，而保守黨將獲得 225 個席位，在加拿大議會中獲得多數席位。

Elsewhere on Polymarket, bettors are giving a 3% chance that Canada joins the United States as its 51st state by July - an idea that started as a joke on President-elect Donald Trump's social media accounts.

在 Polymarket 的其他地方，投注者認為加拿大在 7 月加入美國成為第 51 個州的可能性為 3% - 這個想法最初只是當選總統唐納德·特朗普社交媒體賬戶上的一個笑話。