加拿大总理贾斯汀·特鲁多的辞职日期现已成为 Polymarket 的投注事件

对于加拿大总理贾斯汀·特鲁多来说，后者似乎迫在眉睫。现在，Polymarket 的投注者正在争论他到底何时宣布辞职。

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau may be preparing to announce his resignation imminently, according to multiple reports and betting markets on Polymarket.

根据 Polymarket 的多份报道和博彩市场，加拿大总理贾斯汀·特鲁多可能准备立即宣布辞职。

Two contracts on Polymarket with lower six-figures of volume attached to them are asking if Trudeau will be gone by February or April, and another from December asks if opposition parties will trigger an election by the spring.

Polymarket 上的两份合同成交量低于六位数，询问特鲁多是否会在 2 月或 4 月下台，而另一份 12 月的合同则询问反对党是否会在春季之前引发选举。

Interest in the Prime Minister's fate surged on Monday after two scoops from Canada's largest newspapers put his resignation date to be either Monday or before Wednesday.

加拿大最大报纸的两则独家新闻将总理的辞职日期定为周一或周三之前，周一，人们对总理命运的兴趣激增。

The Toronto Star says the resignation is coming as early as Monday, while the Globe and Mail, which had it first, said the announcement would come before a national Liberal Party caucus meeting scheduled for Wednesday.

《多伦多星报》称，辞职最早将于周一公布，而最先报道此事的《环球邮报》则表示，这一消息将在定于周三举行的全国自由党党团会议之前宣布。

Polymarket bettors are skeptical on whether the announcement could come earlier. One contract, which is betting on Monday has just over $45,000 in volume and only gives a 24% chance the week will start with Trudeau signing off.

Polymarket 投注者对这一公告能否提前发布持怀疑态度。周一押注的一份合约成交量刚刚超过 45,000 美元，本周开始特鲁多签字的可能性只有 24%。

Another, asking if the Prime Minister will step down by Wednesday gives it a 72% chance but that specific contract has a much smaller volume at around $10,000. Finally, a third, asking if he'll be gone by Friday puts the chance of that happening at 80%.

另一项询问总理是否会在周三之前下台的可能性为 72%，但具体合同的金额要小得多，约为 10,000 美元。最后，第三个问他是否会在周五之前离开的人表示，这种情况发生的可能性为 80%。

While the Toronto Star and the Globe and Mail both have their sources that say a resignation is imminent, Reuters, which it says spoke to someone different, says Trudeau hasn't yet made up his mind.

虽然《多伦多星报》和《环球邮报》都有消息来源称特鲁多即将辞职，但路透社表示，特鲁多尚未下定决心。

Angus Reid, a Canadian pollster, gives the Prime Minister a 22% approval rating. Polling aggregators show that if an election were to be held today, Trudeau's Liberals would be decimated, only winning 46 seats while the Conservatives would take 225 giving them a majority in Canada's Parliament.

加拿大民意调查专家安格斯·里德 (Angus Reid) 给予总理 22% 的支持率。民调汇总显示，如果今天举行选举，特鲁多领导的自由党将惨败，仅赢得 46 个席位，而保守党将获得 225 个席位，在加拿大议会中获得多数席位。

Elsewhere on Polymarket, bettors are giving a 3% chance that Canada joins the United States as its 51st state by July - an idea that started as a joke on President-elect Donald Trump's social media accounts.

在 Polymarket 的其他地方，投注者认为加拿大在 7 月加入美国成为第 51 个州的可能性为 3% - 这个想法最初只是当选总统唐纳德·特朗普社交媒体账户上的一个笑话。