美國BTC現貨ETF市場依賴IBIT抵銷資金流出，ADP就業數據挑戰聯準會激進降息預期

10 月 2 日星期三，美國 BTC 現貨 ETF 市場仍依賴 IBIT 來抵消其他發行人的資金流出，從而傾斜供需平衡

The US BTC-spot ETF market saw outflows deepen on Wednesday, with IBIT flows buffering outflows from other issuers to tilt the supply-demand balance in BTC’s favor.

週三，美國 BTC 現貨 ETF 市場資金流出加劇，IBIT 資金流緩衝了其他發行人的資金流出，使供需平衡向有利於 BTC 的方向傾斜。

As reported by Farside Investors, excluding IBIT and Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) flows, the US BTC-spot ETF market saw net outflows of $39.2 million on Wednesday.

根據 Farside Investors 報道，不包括 IBIT 和 Bitwise 比特幣 ETF (BITB) 流量，美國 BTC 現貨 ETF 市場週三淨流出 3,920 萬美元。

The outflows come amid بازار بورس concerns about a possible escalation in the Middle East conflict, which have been impacting demand for BTC. Additionally, market sentiment toward the Fed rate path also played a role in determining demand for US BTC-spot ETFs.

資金外流之際，巴貝多擔心中東衝突可能升級，一直影響比特幣的需求。此外，市場對聯準會利率路徑的情緒也在決定美國 BTC 現貨 ETF 的需求方面發揮了作用。

Fresh US labor market data from ADP on Wednesday showed a 143k employment gain in September, compared to 103k in August. The data pointed to a soft US economic landing, though it also tempered investor bets on a 50-basis point November Fed rate cut.

週三 ADP 發布的最新美國勞動力市場數據顯示，9 月就業人數增加 14.3 萬人，而 8 月為 10.3 萬人。該數據顯示美國經濟軟著陸，但也削弱了投資者對 11 月聯準會降息 50 個基點的押注。

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 50-basis point November Fed rate cut fell from 36.8% on October 1 to 34.6% on October 2.

根據CME FedWatch工具，11月聯準會降息50個基點的機率從10月1日的36.8%下降至10月2日的34.6%。

The ADP report influenced sentiment toward the Fed rate path, with the official US Jobs Report due on Friday set to be crucial. Upbeat labor market data could cement bets on a smaller 25-basis point November Fed rate cut, while a higher-for-longer Fed rate path would leave yields elevated and impact demand for riskier assets.

ADP 報告影響了人們對聯準會利率路徑的看法，週五公佈的美國官方就業報告至關重要。樂觀的勞動力市場數據可能會鞏固對聯準會 11 月降息幅度較小 25 個基點的押注，而聯準會利率路徑的持續走高將導致收益率上升，並影響對風險資產的需求。

Concerns about a possible escalation in the Middle East conflict remained a BTC headwind, with any further escalation set to send BTC below the $60,000 mark.

對中東衝突可能升級的擔憂仍然是 BTC 的阻力，任何進一步升級都將導致 BTC 跌破 6 萬美元大關。