美国BTC现货ETF市场依靠IBIT抵消资金流出，ADP就业数据挑战美联储激进降息预期

10 月 2 日星期三，美国 BTC 现货 ETF 市场仍然依赖 IBIT 来抵消其他发行人的资金流出，从而倾斜供需平衡

The US BTC-spot ETF market saw outflows deepen on Wednesday, with IBIT flows buffering outflows from other issuers to tilt the supply-demand balance in BTC’s favor.

周三，美国 BTC 现货 ETF 市场资金流出加剧，IBIT 资金流缓冲了其他发行人的资金流出，使供需平衡向有利于 BTC 的方向倾斜。

As reported by Farside Investors, excluding IBIT and Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) flows, the US BTC-spot ETF market saw net outflows of $39.2 million on Wednesday.

据 Farside Investors 报道，不包括 IBIT 和 Bitwise 比特币 ETF (BITB) 流量，美国 BTC 现货 ETF 市场周三净流出 3920 万美元。

The outflows come amid بازار بورس concerns about a possible escalation in the Middle East conflict, which have been impacting demand for BTC. Additionally, market sentiment toward the Fed rate path also played a role in determining demand for US BTC-spot ETFs.

资金外流之际，巴巴多斯担心中东冲突可能升级，这一直影响着比特币的需求。此外，市场对美联储利率路径的情绪也在决定美国 BTC 现货 ETF 的需求方面发挥了作用。

Fresh US labor market data from ADP on Wednesday showed a 143k employment gain in September, compared to 103k in August. The data pointed to a soft US economic landing, though it also tempered investor bets on a 50-basis point November Fed rate cut.

周三 ADP 发布的最新美国劳动力市场数据显示，9 月份就业人数增加 14.3 万人，而 8 月份为 10.3 万人。该数据表明美国经济软着陆，但也削弱了投资者对 11 月美联储降息 50 个基点的押注。

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 50-basis point November Fed rate cut fell from 36.8% on October 1 to 34.6% on October 2.

根据CME FedWatch工具，11月美联储降息50个基点的概率从10月1日的36.8%下降至10月2日的34.6%。

The ADP report influenced sentiment toward the Fed rate path, with the official US Jobs Report due on Friday set to be crucial. Upbeat labor market data could cement bets on a smaller 25-basis point November Fed rate cut, while a higher-for-longer Fed rate path would leave yields elevated and impact demand for riskier assets.

ADP 报告影响了人们对美联储利率路径的看法，周五公布的美国官方就业报告至关重要。乐观的劳动力市场数据可能会巩固对美联储 11 月降息幅度较小 25 个基点的押注，而美联储利率路径的持续走高将导致收益率上升，并影响对风险资产的需求。

Concerns about a possible escalation in the Middle East conflict remained a BTC headwind, with any further escalation set to send BTC below the $60,000 mark.

对中东冲突可能升级的担忧仍然是 BTC 的阻力，任何进一步升级都将导致 BTC 跌破 60,000 美元大关。