US BTC-Spot ETF Market Relies on IBIT to Offset Outflows, ADP Employment Data Challenges Aggressive Fed Rate Cut Expectations

On Wednesday, October 2, the US BTC-spot ETF market remains dependent on IBIT to offset outflows from other issuers to tilt the supply-demand balance

The US BTC-spot ETF market saw outflows deepen on Wednesday, with IBIT flows buffering outflows from other issuers to tilt the supply-demand balance in BTC’s favor.

As reported by Farside Investors, excluding IBIT and Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) flows, the US BTC-spot ETF market saw net outflows of $39.2 million on Wednesday.

The outflows come amid بازار بورس concerns about a possible escalation in the Middle East conflict, which have been impacting demand for BTC. Additionally, market sentiment toward the Fed rate path also played a role in determining demand for US BTC-spot ETFs.

Fresh US labor market data from ADP on Wednesday showed a 143k employment gain in September, compared to 103k in August. The data pointed to a soft US economic landing, though it also tempered investor bets on a 50-basis point November Fed rate cut.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 50-basis point November Fed rate cut fell from 36.8% on October 1 to 34.6% on October 2.

The ADP report influenced sentiment toward the Fed rate path, with the official US Jobs Report due on Friday set to be crucial. Upbeat labor market data could cement bets on a smaller 25-basis point November Fed rate cut, while a higher-for-longer Fed rate path would leave yields elevated and impact demand for riskier assets.

Concerns about a possible escalation in the Middle East conflict remained a BTC headwind, with any further escalation set to send BTC below the $60,000 mark.