BSP 將關鍵政策利率再調降 25 個基點

菲律賓中央銀行（BSP）貨幣委員會週四決定連續第三次會議繼續實施寬鬆政策

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) on Thursday decided to continue its policy easing for the third consecutive meeting, bringing down key policy rates by another 25 basis points.

菲律賓中央銀行 (BSP) 週四決定連續第三次會議繼續實施寬鬆政策，將關鍵政策利率再下調 25 個基點。

The target reverse repurchase (RRP) rate will be reduced to 5.75%, the overnight deposit rate to 5.25%, and the overnight lending facility rate to 6.25% effective Friday, December 20.

自 12 月 20 日星期五起，目標逆回購 (RRP) 利率將降至 5.75%，隔夜存款利率降至 5.25%，隔夜貸款便利利率降至 6.25%。

This follows the 25-basis-point cut in October, and another 25-basis-point cut in August which was the first reduction in nearly four years and the first adjustment since the off-cycle hike in October 2023.

此前，10 月降息 25 個基點，8 月再次降息 25 個基點，這是近四年來的首次降息，也是自 2023 年 10 月非週期加息以來的首次調整。

This comes even as the central bank now expects inflation to average 3.2% this year, higher than the 3.1% outlook reported in October, to take into account weather disturbances recorded in the past two months.

儘管考慮到過去兩個月記錄的天氣幹擾，央行目前預計今年通膨率平均為 3.2%，高於 10 月報告的 3.1% 的預期。

“The balance of risks to the inflation outlook continues to lean to the upside due largely to potential upward adjustments in transport fares and electricity rates. The impact of lower import tariffs on rice remains the main downside risk to inflation,” BSP governor Eli Remolona Jr. said at a briefing in Manila City.

「通膨前景的風險平衡繼續傾向於上行，這主要是由於運輸費用和電費可能上調。菲律賓央行行長小伊萊·雷莫洛納 (Eli Remolona Jr.) 在馬尼拉市舉行的新聞發布會上表示，大米進口關稅降低的影響仍然是通膨的主要下行風險。

The Manila Electric Company (Meralco) hiked the household electricity rate for December by 10.48 centavos per kilowatt-hour (kWh), bringing the overall rate for a typical household to P11.9617 per kWh.

馬尼拉電力公司 (Meralco) 將 12 月的家庭電價提高了每千瓦時 (kWh) 10.48 分，使典型家庭的整體電價達到每千瓦時 11.9617 比索。

“On balance, the within-target inflation outlook and well-anchored inflation expectations continue to support the BSP’s shift toward less restrictive monetary policy. Nonetheless, the monetary authority will continue to closely monitor the emerging upside risks to inflation, notably geopolitical factors,” Remolona said.

「總的來說，目標內通膨前景和穩固的通膨預期繼續支持菲律賓央行轉向寬鬆的貨幣政策。儘管如此，貨幣當局將繼續密切關注新興的通膨上行風險，特別是地緣政治因素，」雷莫洛納表示。

“Looking ahead, the Monetary Board will maintain a measured approach to monetary policy easing to ensure price stability conducive to sustainable economic growth and employment,” he added.

他補充說：“展望未來，貨幣委員會將維持審慎的貨幣政策寬鬆態度，以確保物價穩定，有利於經濟可持續增長和就業。”

100BPS cut ‘too much’ for 2025

2025 年 100BPS 削減“太多”

Moving forward, the central bank also hiked its inflation forecasts for 2025 — the risk-adjusted forecast to 3.4% from 3.3% previously, and the baseline forecast to 3.3% from 3.2% previously.

展望未來，央行也調高了2025年通膨預測－風險調整後預測從先前的3.3%上調至3.4%，基準預測從先前的3.2%上調至3.3%。

Remolona, who has continuously said the BSP is still in its easing cycle, said further cuts are expected next year, with 100 basis points being “too much,” but 0 basis points would also be “too little.”

雷莫洛納一直表示央行仍處於寬鬆週期，並表示明年預計將進一步降息，100 個基點“太多”，但 0 個基點也“太少”。

“I think if the data are not too surprising, then we will continue to ease. If there’s a big surprise then we will change direction of monetary policy but if the surprises are small, there’s no reason to really change the direction we’re taking,” he said.

「我認為，如果數據不太令人意外，那麼我們將繼續放鬆政策。如果出現很大的意外，那麼我們將改變貨幣政策的方向，但如果意外很小，就沒有理由真正改變我們正在採取的方向，」他說。

“The reason we’re cutting in baby’s steps, we’re not sure about inflation. We’re worried inflation might still rise again. By cutting in baby steps, at this point we’re still quite tight,” he added. — RSJ, GMA Integrated News

「我們之所以要減少嬰兒的步伐，是因為我們不確定通貨膨脹。我們擔心通膨可能仍會再次上升。透過逐步減少，目前我們仍然相當緊張，」他補充道。 — RSJ、GMA 綜合新聞