BSP 将关键政策利率再下调 25 个基点

菲律宾中央银行（BSP）货币委员会周四决定连续第三次会议继续实行宽松政策

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) on Thursday decided to continue its policy easing for the third consecutive meeting, bringing down key policy rates by another 25 basis points.

菲律宾中央银行 (BSP) 周四决定连续第三次会议继续实行宽松政策，将关键政策利率再下调 25 个基点。

The target reverse repurchase (RRP) rate will be reduced to 5.75%, the overnight deposit rate to 5.25%, and the overnight lending facility rate to 6.25% effective Friday, December 20.

自 12 月 20 日星期五起，目标逆回购 (RRP) 利率将降至 5.75%，隔夜存款利率降至 5.25%，隔夜贷款便利利率降至 6.25%。

This follows the 25-basis-point cut in October, and another 25-basis-point cut in August which was the first reduction in nearly four years and the first adjustment since the off-cycle hike in October 2023.

此前，10 月份降息 25 个基点，8 月份再次降息 25 个基点，这是近四年来的首次降息，也是自 2023 年 10 月非周期加息以来的首次调整。

This comes even as the central bank now expects inflation to average 3.2% this year, higher than the 3.1% outlook reported in October, to take into account weather disturbances recorded in the past two months.

尽管考虑到过去两个月记录的天气干扰，央行目前预计今年通胀率平均为 3.2%，高于 10 月份报告的 3.1% 的预期。

“The balance of risks to the inflation outlook continues to lean to the upside due largely to potential upward adjustments in transport fares and electricity rates. The impact of lower import tariffs on rice remains the main downside risk to inflation,” BSP governor Eli Remolona Jr. said at a briefing in Manila City.

“通胀前景的风险平衡继续倾向于上行，这主要是由于运输费用和电费可能上调。菲律宾央行行长小伊莱·雷莫洛纳 (Eli Remolona Jr.) 在马尼拉市举行的新闻发布会上表示，大米进口关税降低的影响仍然是通胀的主要下行风险。

The Manila Electric Company (Meralco) hiked the household electricity rate for December by 10.48 centavos per kilowatt-hour (kWh), bringing the overall rate for a typical household to P11.9617 per kWh.

马尼拉电力公司 (Meralco) 将 12 月份的家庭电价提高了每千瓦时 (kWh) 10.48 分，使典型家庭的整体电价达到每千瓦时 11.9617 比索。

“On balance, the within-target inflation outlook and well-anchored inflation expectations continue to support the BSP’s shift toward less restrictive monetary policy. Nonetheless, the monetary authority will continue to closely monitor the emerging upside risks to inflation, notably geopolitical factors,” Remolona said.

“总的来说，目标内通胀前景和稳固的通胀预期继续支持菲律宾央行转向宽松的货币政策。尽管如此，货币当局将继续密切关注新兴的通胀上行风险，特别是地缘政治因素，”雷莫洛纳表示。

“Looking ahead, the Monetary Board will maintain a measured approach to monetary policy easing to ensure price stability conducive to sustainable economic growth and employment,” he added.

他补充说：“展望未来，货币委员会将维持审慎的货币政策宽松态度，以确保物价稳定，有利于经济可持续增长和就业。”

100BPS cut ‘too much’ for 2025

2025 年 100BPS 削减“太多”

Moving forward, the central bank also hiked its inflation forecasts for 2025 — the risk-adjusted forecast to 3.4% from 3.3% previously, and the baseline forecast to 3.3% from 3.2% previously.

展望未来，央行还上调了2025年通胀预测——风险调整后预测从此前的3.3%上调至3.4%，基准预测从此前的3.2%上调至3.3%。

Remolona, who has continuously said the BSP is still in its easing cycle, said further cuts are expected next year, with 100 basis points being “too much,” but 0 basis points would also be “too little.”

雷莫洛纳一直表示央行仍处于宽松周期，并表示明年预计将进一步降息，100 个基点“太多”，但 0 个基点也“太少”。

“I think if the data are not too surprising, then we will continue to ease. If there’s a big surprise then we will change direction of monetary policy but if the surprises are small, there’s no reason to really change the direction we’re taking,” he said.

“我认为，如果数据不太令人意外，那么我们将继续放松政策。如果出现很大的意外，那么我们将改变货币政策的方向，但如果意外很小，就没有理由真正改变我们正在采取的方向，”他表示。

“The reason we’re cutting in baby’s steps, we’re not sure about inflation. We’re worried inflation might still rise again. By cutting in baby steps, at this point we’re still quite tight,” he added. — RSJ, GMA Integrated News

“我们之所以要减少婴儿的步伐，是因为我们不确定通货膨胀。我们担心通胀可能仍会再次上升。通过逐步减少，目前我们仍然相当紧张，”他补充道。 — RSJ、GMA 综合新闻