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隨著下週即將在喀山舉行的年度金磚國家峰會,人們對潛在的黃金支持的數位貨幣和替代支付系統的猜測
With the upcoming annual BRICS Summit in Kazan next week, speculation about a potential gold-backed digital currency and alternative payment system has been heating up. While BRICS members have discussed such a currency on and off since the 2010s, the Russian government started dropping stronger hints about it in 2022 after a tidal wave of U.S. sanctions against it.
隨著下週即將在喀山舉行的年度金磚國家峰會,有關潛在的黃金支持的數位貨幣和替代支付系統的猜測一直在升溫。儘管金磚國家成員自 2010 年代以來就斷斷續續地討論過這種貨幣,但在美國對其實施一波制裁後,俄羅斯政府在 2022 年開始對這種貨幣發出更強烈的暗示。
By 2023, these were no longer mere hints—Russian President Vladimir Putin was openly promoting the idea of such a currency and de-dollarization generally, with the proposed BRICS Unit becoming a major talking point at last year’s South Africa Summit. As the 2024 Kazan Summit approaches, the Russian Ministry of Finance, Bank of Russia, and management consulting firm Yakov and Partners have released a paper (PDF) detailing what such a payment system might look like.
到2023 年,這些不再只是暗示——俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·普丁(Vladimir Putin) 公開提倡這種貨幣和去美元化的想法,擬議的金磚國家機製成為去年南非峰會上的一個主要話題。隨著 2024 年喀山峰會的臨近,俄羅斯財政部、俄羅斯銀行和管理顧問公司 Yakov and Partners 發布了一份論文 (PDF),詳細介紹了這種支付系統的外觀。
DLT is the preferred approach
DLT 是首選方法
The paper outlines multiple approaches as to how a BRICS cross-border payment system might look. Four proposals are outlined:
該文件概述了金磚國家跨境支付系統的多種方案。概述了四項建議:
After considering all four, the paper makes clear that the DLT option is the preferred option. Perceived benefits include the removal of intermediaries and the compliance checks they necessitate, as well as the speed and cost savings such an efficient system would bring. While the paper does not directly state that such a system is being created, when taken together with Alexander Bubakov’s recent comments to Russian media, it provides plenty of food for thought as the Kazan Summit approaches.
在考慮了所有四個選項之後,本文明確指出 DLT 選項是首選。預期的好處包括消除中介機構及其所需的合規性檢查,以及這種高效系統帶來的速度和成本節省。雖然該文件沒有直接表明正在創建這樣一個系統,但與亞歷山大·布巴科夫最近對俄羅斯媒體的評論結合起來,隨著喀山峰會的臨近,它提供了充足的思考空間。
Is a BRICS payment system just Russian wishful thinking?
金磚國家支付系統只是俄羅斯的一廂情願嗎?
While there’s no technical reason why a BRICS payment system can’t be created, the politics of the bloc aren’t so simple. BRICS was initially comprised of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, but it has since expanded to include Iran, Argentina, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Ethiopia—as any armchair geopolitics analyst will tell you, these are not comfortable bedfellows.
雖然沒有技術原因導致金磚國家的支付系統無法建立,但該集團的政治並不那麼簡單。金磚國家最初由巴西、俄羅斯、印度、中國和南非組成,但後來擴大到包括伊朗、阿根廷、埃及、沙烏地阿拉伯、阿聯酋和衣索比亞——任何紙上談兵的地緣政治分析師都會告訴你,這些是同床不舒服。
Firstly, we have Argentina as one of the newest members of BRICS. President Javier Milei has made his disdain for left-leaning politics known, putting him at odds with Brazil, China, and several other names on this list. With inflation of 211.4% in 2023 in Argentina, Milei seeks to dollarize the economy and eliminate the Argentinian Peso. So, his government is unlikely to side with any coalition trying to undermine U.S. financial power and hurt the dollar.
首先,阿根廷是金磚國家的最新成員之一。哈維爾·米萊總統公開表達了他對左翼政治的蔑視,這讓他與巴西、中國和名單上的其他幾個國家產生了分歧。鑑於 2023 年阿根廷通貨膨脹率高達 211.4%,Milei 尋求將經濟美元化並取消阿根廷比索。因此,他的政府不太可能支持任何試圖削弱美國金融實力並損害美元的聯盟。
Next, we have India and China. While they trade ($135.98 billion in 2022), the trade is skewed heavily in China’s favor, and border skirmishes between them have been a regular occurrence. In 2020, a clash in the Galwan Valley left 20 Indian soldiers and an undisclosed number of Chinese soldiers dead. As India’s economy grows and China’s slows, this tension could increase significantly as the two Asian giants tussle for power.
接下來是印度和中國。雖然兩國之間的貿易額(2022 年為 1,359.8 億美元),但貿易嚴重偏向中國,而且兩國之間的邊境衝突也經常發生。 2020年,加勒萬河谷發生衝突,造成20名印度士兵和數量不詳的中國士兵死亡。隨著印度經濟的成長和中國經濟的放緩,隨著這兩個亞洲大國爭奪權力,這種緊張局勢可能會顯著加劇。
We then come to the Islamic nations in BRICS. Saudi Arabia and the UAE not only produce vast quantities of oil, but they are more moderate and pro-reform in their worldviews, putting them at loggerheads with the fundamentalist Iranian regime. Saudi and the UAE have both engaged in peace initiatives with Israel, creating further tension between them and Iran. In recent weeks, Iran has directly threatened both, warning them not to cooperate or align with Israel or face repercussions. Any conflict between Iran and these two would likely drive oil prices up significantly, incurring the ire of China, the world’s biggest oil importer.
接下來我們來看看金磚國家中的伊斯蘭國家。沙烏地阿拉伯和阿聯酋不僅生產大量石油,而且在世界觀上更加溫和和支持改革,這使得它們與原教旨主義伊朗政權發生爭執。沙烏地阿拉伯和阿聯酋都參與了與以色列的和平倡議,加劇了它們與伊朗之間的緊張關係。最近幾週,伊朗直接威脅兩國,警告他們不要與以色列合作或結盟,否則將面臨後果。伊朗與這兩個國家之間的任何衝突都可能導致油價大幅上漲,從而引起全球最大石油進口國中國的憤怒。
Finally, we have Russia itself. After invading Ukraine in February 2022, it became the most sanctioned country in the world. Even Chinese firms have begun to distance themselves from Russia, fearing secondary sanctions. Huawei has reduced Russian operations, and Sinopec recently withdrew from a major Russian oil and gas project. If even Russia’s staunchest ally is backing slowly towards the door, it’s unlikely any of the others on the BRICS list will rush toward it.
最後,我們還有俄羅斯本身。 2022年2月入侵烏克蘭後,烏克蘭成為全球受制裁最嚴重的國家。甚至中國企業也開始與俄羅斯保持距離,擔心二次製裁。華為減少了俄羅斯業務,中石化最近退出了俄羅斯的一個大型石油和天然氣計畫。如果即使是俄羅斯最堅定的盟友也慢慢退出,金磚國家名單上的其他國家也不太可能衝向它。
In summary, all the technology to create an independent BRICS payment system and currency is available, and there’s nothing to say it won’t happen. However, whether it will gain significant traction is still debatable. As this overview of BRICS nations has shown, they all have divergent interests and are not necessarily aligned. In fact, in some cases, they are diametrically opposed.
總而言之,創建獨立的金磚國家支付系統和貨幣的所有技術都是可用的,而且沒有什麼可以說它不會發生。然而,它是否會獲得巨大的吸引力仍然存在爭議。正如金磚國家概況所示,它們都有不同的利益,也不一定一致。事實上,在某些情況下,它們是截然相反的。
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