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随着下周即将在喀山举行的年度金砖国家峰会,人们对潜在的黄金支持的数字货币和替代支付系统的猜测
With the upcoming annual BRICS Summit in Kazan next week, speculation about a potential gold-backed digital currency and alternative payment system has been heating up. While BRICS members have discussed such a currency on and off since the 2010s, the Russian government started dropping stronger hints about it in 2022 after a tidal wave of U.S. sanctions against it.
随着下周即将在喀山举行的年度金砖国家峰会,有关潜在的黄金支持的数字货币和替代支付系统的猜测一直在升温。尽管金砖国家成员自 2010 年代以来就断断续续地讨论过这种货币,但在美国对其实施一波制裁后,俄罗斯政府在 2022 年开始对这种货币发出更强烈的暗示。
By 2023, these were no longer mere hints—Russian President Vladimir Putin was openly promoting the idea of such a currency and de-dollarization generally, with the proposed BRICS Unit becoming a major talking point at last year’s South Africa Summit. As the 2024 Kazan Summit approaches, the Russian Ministry of Finance, Bank of Russia, and management consulting firm Yakov and Partners have released a paper (PDF) detailing what such a payment system might look like.
到 2023 年,这些不再仅仅是暗示——俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京 (Vladimir Putin) 公开提倡这种货币和去美元化的想法,拟议的金砖国家机制成为去年南非峰会上的一个主要话题。随着 2024 年喀山峰会的临近,俄罗斯财政部、俄罗斯银行和管理咨询公司 Yakov and Partners 发布了一份论文 (PDF),详细介绍了这种支付系统的外观。
DLT is the preferred approach
DLT 是首选方法
The paper outlines multiple approaches as to how a BRICS cross-border payment system might look. Four proposals are outlined:
该文件概述了金砖国家跨境支付系统的多种方案。概述了四项建议:
After considering all four, the paper makes clear that the DLT option is the preferred option. Perceived benefits include the removal of intermediaries and the compliance checks they necessitate, as well as the speed and cost savings such an efficient system would bring. While the paper does not directly state that such a system is being created, when taken together with Alexander Bubakov’s recent comments to Russian media, it provides plenty of food for thought as the Kazan Summit approaches.
在考虑了所有四个选项之后,本文明确指出 DLT 选项是首选。预期的好处包括消除中介机构及其所需的合规性检查,以及这种高效系统带来的速度和成本节省。虽然该文件没有直接表明正在创建这样一个系统,但与亚历山大·布巴科夫最近对俄罗斯媒体的评论结合起来,随着喀山峰会的临近,它提供了充足的思考空间。
Is a BRICS payment system just Russian wishful thinking?
金砖国家支付系统只是俄罗斯的一厢情愿吗?
While there’s no technical reason why a BRICS payment system can’t be created, the politics of the bloc aren’t so simple. BRICS was initially comprised of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, but it has since expanded to include Iran, Argentina, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Ethiopia—as any armchair geopolitics analyst will tell you, these are not comfortable bedfellows.
虽然没有技术原因导致金砖国家的支付系统无法建立,但该集团的政治并不那么简单。金砖国家最初由巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非组成,但后来扩大到包括伊朗、阿根廷、埃及、沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋和埃塞俄比亚——任何纸上谈兵的地缘政治分析师都会告诉你,这些是同床不舒服。
Firstly, we have Argentina as one of the newest members of BRICS. President Javier Milei has made his disdain for left-leaning politics known, putting him at odds with Brazil, China, and several other names on this list. With inflation of 211.4% in 2023 in Argentina, Milei seeks to dollarize the economy and eliminate the Argentinian Peso. So, his government is unlikely to side with any coalition trying to undermine U.S. financial power and hurt the dollar.
首先,阿根廷是金砖国家的最新成员之一。哈维尔·米莱总统公开表达了他对左翼政治的蔑视,这让他与巴西、中国和名单上的其他几个国家产生了分歧。鉴于 2023 年阿根廷通货膨胀率高达 211.4%,Milei 寻求将经济美元化并取消阿根廷比索。因此,他的政府不太可能支持任何试图削弱美国金融实力并损害美元的联盟。
Next, we have India and China. While they trade ($135.98 billion in 2022), the trade is skewed heavily in China’s favor, and border skirmishes between them have been a regular occurrence. In 2020, a clash in the Galwan Valley left 20 Indian soldiers and an undisclosed number of Chinese soldiers dead. As India’s economy grows and China’s slows, this tension could increase significantly as the two Asian giants tussle for power.
接下来是印度和中国。虽然两国之间的贸易额(2022 年为 1,359.8 亿美元),但贸易严重偏向于中国,而且两国之间的边境冲突也经常发生。 2020年,加勒万河谷发生冲突,造成20名印度士兵和数量不详的中国士兵死亡。随着印度经济的增长和中国经济的放缓,随着这两个亚洲大国争夺权力,这种紧张局势可能会显着加剧。
We then come to the Islamic nations in BRICS. Saudi Arabia and the UAE not only produce vast quantities of oil, but they are more moderate and pro-reform in their worldviews, putting them at loggerheads with the fundamentalist Iranian regime. Saudi and the UAE have both engaged in peace initiatives with Israel, creating further tension between them and Iran. In recent weeks, Iran has directly threatened both, warning them not to cooperate or align with Israel or face repercussions. Any conflict between Iran and these two would likely drive oil prices up significantly, incurring the ire of China, the world’s biggest oil importer.
接下来我们来看看金砖国家中的伊斯兰国家。沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋不仅生产大量石油,而且在世界观上更加温和和支持改革,这使得它们与原教旨主义伊朗政权发生争执。沙特和阿联酋都参与了与以色列的和平倡议,加剧了它们与伊朗之间的紧张关系。最近几周,伊朗直接威胁两国,警告他们不要与以色列合作或结盟,否则将面临后果。伊朗与这两个国家之间的任何冲突都可能导致油价大幅上涨,从而引起全球最大石油进口国中国的愤怒。
Finally, we have Russia itself. After invading Ukraine in February 2022, it became the most sanctioned country in the world. Even Chinese firms have begun to distance themselves from Russia, fearing secondary sanctions. Huawei has reduced Russian operations, and Sinopec recently withdrew from a major Russian oil and gas project. If even Russia’s staunchest ally is backing slowly towards the door, it’s unlikely any of the others on the BRICS list will rush toward it.
最后,我们还有俄罗斯本身。 2022年2月入侵乌克兰后,乌克兰成为世界上受制裁最严重的国家。甚至中国企业也开始与俄罗斯保持距离,担心受到二次制裁。华为减少了俄罗斯业务,中石化最近退出了俄罗斯的一个大型石油和天然气项目。如果即使是俄罗斯最坚定的盟友也慢慢退出,金砖国家名单上的其他国家也不太可能冲向它。
In summary, all the technology to create an independent BRICS payment system and currency is available, and there’s nothing to say it won’t happen. However, whether it will gain significant traction is still debatable. As this overview of BRICS nations has shown, they all have divergent interests and are not necessarily aligned. In fact, in some cases, they are diametrically opposed.
总而言之,创建独立的金砖国家支付系统和货币的所有技术都是可用的,而且没有什么可以说它不会发生。然而,它是否会获得巨大的吸引力仍然存在争议。正如金砖国家概况所示,它们都有不同的利益,也不一定一致。事实上,在某些情况下,它们是截然相反的。
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