貝萊德調整比特幣投資組合規模，預測採用比特幣將推動長期價值

在12 月12 日發布的一份題為《調整投資組合中的比特幣規模》的報告中，貝萊德強調，這種百分比配置與投資領先的科技股（包括亞馬遜、微軟和英偉達等巨頭）具有相似的投資組合風險水準。

BlackRock’s report highlights Bitcoin’s role in portfolios, suggesting a 1-2% allocation, and exploring how institutional interest and government involvement are shaping the crypto landscape.

貝萊德的報告強調了比特幣在投資組合中的作用，建議配置 1-2%，並探討機構利益和政府參與如何塑造加密貨幣格局。

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要點：

BlackRock’s analysis reveals that a 1-2% Bitcoin allocation carries a portfolio risk level comparable to investing in leading tech stocks, a group that the report refers to as the “magnificent 7.” These companies include Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia.

貝萊德的分析顯示，1-2% 的比特幣配置所帶來的投資組合風險水準與投資領先的科技股相當，該報告將這一類股票稱為「宏偉的 7 股」。這些公司包括亞馬遜、微軟和英偉達。

The report advises against exceeding this suggested range, as larger allocations could drastically increase Bitcoin’s risk contribution to a diversified portfolio.

該報告建議不要超過這個建議範圍，因為更大的分配可能會大大增加比特幣對多元化投資組合的風險貢獻。

While Bitcoin offers unique opportunities, investors must tread carefully when deciding how much of their portfolio to commit.

雖然比特幣提供了一個獨特的機會，但投資者在決定投入多少投資組合時必須謹慎行事。

Bitcoin’s Value Hinges on Adoption, Not Cash Flows

比特幣的價值取決於採用率，而不是現金流

BlackRock’s report shifts the focus away from traditional valuation metrics, highlighting that Bitcoin lacks cash flows to predict future returns. Instead, its long-term value is rooted in adoption trends and its role as a diversified asset.

貝萊德的報告將焦點從傳統的估值指標轉移開，強調比特幣缺乏現金流來預測未來的報酬。相反，它的長期價值植根於採用趨勢及其作為多元化資產的作用。

“Bitcoin may also provide a more diversified source of return,” the report explains. The company adds that over time, Bitcoin’s correlation with major risk assets might decline due to its distinct drivers of value. This unique positioning makes Bitcoin a potentially compelling hedge against specific risks akin to gold.

報告解釋說：“比特幣還可能提供更加多元化的回報來源。”該公司補充說，隨著時間的推移，由於其獨特的價值驅動因素，比特幣與主要風險資產的相關性可能會下降。這種獨特的定位使比特幣成為一種潛在的、具有吸引力的對沖工具，可以抵禦類似於黃金的特定風險。

However, BlackRock cautions that Bitcoin’s risk profile could diminish as adoption grows, potentially leading to fewer structural price catalysts. The cryptocurrency might then evolve into a more tactical investment rather than a driver of high returns.

然而，貝萊德警告稱，隨著採用率的提高，比特幣的風險狀況可能會降低，這可能導致結構性價格催化劑減少。然後，加密貨幣可能會演變成更具戰術性的投資，而不是高回報的驅動力。

Bitcoin institutional interest surged in 2024, largely driven by the growing popularity of spot Bitcoin ETFs. These funds, which debuted in January, crossed $100 billion in net assets by November, marking a significant milestone.

2024 年，機構對比特幣的興趣激增，這主要是由於現貨比特幣 ETF 的日益受歡迎。這些基金於 1 月推出，到 11 月淨資產突破 1,000 億美元，標誌著一個重要的里程碑。

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the largest spot Bitcoin ETF, holds nearly $54 billion in net assets. Collectively, spot Bitcoin ETFs now manage over 1.104 million BTC, surpassing the balance held by Bitcoin’s anonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. BlackRock’s ETF alone accounts for approximately 529,000 BTC under Coinbase Custody.

貝萊德旗下 iShares 比特幣信託 (IBIT) 是最大的現貨比特幣 ETF，持有近 540 億美元的淨資產。總的來說，現貨比特幣 ETF 目前管理著超過 110.4 萬枚 BTC，超過了比特幣匿名創造者中本聰持有的餘額。僅 BlackRock 的 ETF 就在 Coinbase 託管下持有約 529,000 BTC。

Such institutional activity is reshaping the crypto landscape. Sygnum Bank’s analysis predicts that even small institutional allocations could create “demand shocks” by 2025, potentially driving Bitcoin prices higher. These developments hint at a rapidly evolving ecosystem where institutional players wield significant influence.

這種機構活動正在重塑加密貨幣格局。 Sygnum 銀行的分析預測，到 2025 年，即使是小規模的機構配置也可能會造成“需求衝擊”，從而可能推高比特幣價格。這些發展暗示著一個快速發展的生態系統，機構參與者在其中發揮重大影響力。

Trump’s Crypto-Friendly Stance Adds Momentum

川普的加密貨幣友善立場增添了動力

The recent surge in Bitcoin’s price—breaking $100,000 for the first time—coincides with a notable political shift. Donald Trump, who is viewed as supportive of cryptocurrency, secured the U.S. presidency last month. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $99,819, marking a 1.71% gain in the last 24 hours, according to Brave New Coin’s Bitcoin Liquid Index.

最近比特幣價格飆升——首次突破 10 萬美元——恰逢顯著的政治轉變。被視為加密貨幣支持者的唐納德·特朗普上個月贏得了美國總統職位。根據 Brave New Coin 的比特幣流動性指數，截至撰寫本文時，比特幣交易價格為 99,819 美元，在過去 24 小時內上漲了 1.71%。

The broader crypto market has gained newfound legitimacy under this pro-crypto administration. Banks like Goldman Sachs, already holding nearly $1 billion in Bitcoin ETF shares, have expressed interest in expanding their participation amid anticipated regulatory clarity.

在這個支持加密貨幣的政府的領導下，更廣泛的加密貨幣市場獲得了新的合法性。像高盛這樣的銀行已經持有近 10 億美元的比特幣 ETF 股票，在預期監管明確的情況下，它們表示有興趣擴大參與範圍。

At the state level, places like Alabama and Pennsylvania are exploring laws to establish Bitcoin reserves. On a broader scale, governments in countries like the U.S., Brazil, and Canada are reportedly considering similar legislative moves to integrate Bitcoin into strategic reserves.

在州一級，阿拉巴馬州和賓夕法尼亞州等地正在探索建立比特幣儲備的法律。據報導，在更廣泛的範圍內，美國、巴西和加拿大等國家的政府正在考慮類似的立法舉措，將比特幣納入戰略儲備。

Still, the report underscores the importance of moderation. A 1-2% allocation, while modest, reflects Bitcoin’s volatility and the uncertainty surrounding its adoption trajectory. Going beyond this range might expose portfolios to disproportionate risk.

儘管如此，該報告還是強調了適度的重要性。 1-2% 的分配雖然不大，但反映了比特幣的波動性及其採用軌蹟的不確定性。超出此範圍可能會使投資組合面臨不成比例的風險。

The question now is whether Bitcoin can continue its upward trajectory without losing its unique edge. With institutional demand climbing and governments warming to crypto, the stage is set for Bitcoin to solidify its position in the financial mainstream.

現在的問題是，比特幣能否在不失去其獨特優勢的情況下繼續其上升軌跡。隨著機構需求的攀升和政府對加密貨幣的熱情升溫，比特幣鞏固其在金融主流地位的舞台已經搭建好了。