六年後，比特幣的最差回報超過了所有其他資產的最佳回報

上個月，我將比特幣的最差回報率與其他資產和股票的最差回報率進行了比較。您可能會覺得這不是一個公平的比較。

Bitcoin's worst return easily beats the best return of other assets, stocks, and even Big Tech over any holding period.

在任何持有期內，比特幣的最差回報率都輕鬆超過了其他資產、股票甚至大型科技公司的最佳回報率。

Last month, I showed that Bitcoin's worst return easily beats the worst return of other assets and stocks. But some people might argue that this isn't a fair comparison because it pits Bitcoin's worst against the other assets' best.

上個月，我表明比特幣的最差回報率輕鬆擊敗了其他資產和股票的最差回報率。但有些人可能會認為這不是一個公平的比較，因為它將比特幣最差的資產與其他資產最好的資產進行比較。

So let's stack the deck against Bitcoin and see how it does. We'll compare Bitcoin's worst return to the best possible return from other assets.

因此，讓我們來對抗比特幣，看看它的表現如何。我們將比較比特幣的最差回報和其他資產的最佳回報。

To calculate this, I need to find the best possible trade for any holding period. Looking backward from 2011 through 2023, here's the best trade for every possible holding period: Buy at the lowest possible price and sell at the highest possible price. Then I compute that for every possible holding period.

為了計算這個，我需要找到任何持有期的最佳可能交易。回顧 2011 年至 2023 年，以下是每個可能持有期的最佳交易：以盡可能低的價格買入，以盡可能高的價格賣出。然後我計算每個可能的持有期。

Doing so for the other asset classes (equities, gold, real estate, and bonds) gives a comparison of the worst of Bitcoin against the best of these other assets:

對其他資產類別（股票、黃金、房地產和債券）進行此操作可以將最差的比特幣與最好的其他資產進行比較：

Worst Bitcoin vs. Best Other Assets

最差的比特幣與最好的其他資產

First, observe that all the best returns are declining in the holding period. That's because of short-term volatility in the early years, which can lead to outsized returns. Over time, those returns converge to their equilibrium levels.

首先，觀察到所有最好的回報在持有期間都在下降。這是因為早年的短期波動可能導致巨額回報。隨著時間的推移，這些回報會趨於均衡水準。

Most importantly, the variations in the best returns are near zero compared to Bitcoin. And after six years, Bitcoin's worst return eclipses the best return from all other assets.

最重要的是，與比特幣相比，最佳回報的變化接近零。六年後，比特幣的最差回報超過了所有其他資產的最佳回報。

What about Big Tech?

那麼大型科技公司呢？

Worst Bitcoin vs. Best Big Tech

最糟糕的比特幣 vs. 最好的大型科技公司

As before, the top growth stocks fare better against Bitcoin, with Tesla leading the pack in the early years, and Nvidia and Tesla neck and neck for the long horizon. Now, Bitcoin still beats these stocks, but it takes longer, almost 11 years for the worst Bitcoin return to exceed the best of Tesla or Nvidia.

和以前一樣，頂級成長型股票相對於比特幣的表現更好，特斯拉在早期處於領先地位，而英偉達和特斯拉在長期內並駕齊驅。現在，比特幣仍然跑贏這些股票，但最糟糕的比特幣回報率需要更長的時間，接近 11 年才能超過特斯拉或英偉達最好的回報率。

Comparing this to a broader universe of top nine stocks yields a similar story:

將此與更廣泛的前九隻股票進行比較，會得到類似的結果：

Worst Bitcoin vs. Best Top Stocks

最糟糕的比特幣與最好的頂級股票

What’s the lesson here? Holding period matters!

這裡有什麼教訓？持有期限很重要！