在獲利回吐和經濟逆風中，比特幣波動，進入新的下跌階段

比特幣價格在 4 月創下歷史新高後，由於獲利回吐，暴跌近 16%，但今年迄今仍上漲 35%。分析師將下跌歸因於 ETF 投資者在大幅上漲後套現，以及聯準會持續升息的前景，對加密貨幣等利率敏感資產產生負面影響。

Bitcoin Wobbles, Entering a New Phase of Decline Amidst Profit-Taking and Economic Headwinds

比特幣波動，在獲利回吐和經濟逆風中進入新的下跌階段

The cryptocurrency market has witnessed a significant sell-off in April, with the world's most traded cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, enduring a 16% plunge. This drop marks a sharp correction from the parabolic rally that pushed Bitcoin to all-time highs above $70,000 earlier this year. However, despite this recent volatility, Bitcoin remains 35% higher year-to-date.

4 月份，加密貨幣市場大幅拋售，全球交易量最大的加密貨幣比特幣暴跌 16%。這次下跌標誌著拋物線反彈的大幅回調，今年早些時候，拋物線反彈將比特幣推至 7 萬美元以上的歷史高點。然而，儘管近期出現波動，比特幣今年迄今仍上漲 35%。

The plunge commenced with Bitcoin shedding 5.6% of its value, reaching its lowest point since late February. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $57,001, down 4.8%, while Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has witnessed a more modest decline of 3.6% to $2,857, its lowest level since February as well.

暴跌始於比特幣價值下跌 5.6%，達到 2 月底以來的最低點。截至本文撰寫時，比特幣交易價格為 57,001 美元，下跌 4.8%，而按市值計算的第二大加密貨幣以太幣則下跌 3.6%，至 2,857 美元，也是 2 月以來的最低水平。

The recent downturn has pushed Bitcoin into bear market territory, signifying a 22% drop from its record high of $73,803 set in March. Nonetheless, Bitcoin's year-to-date performance remains positive, and it has doubled in value since this time last year, largely attributed to billions of dollars flowing into newly minted exchange-traded funds (ETFs) since January.

最近的低迷已將比特幣推入熊市區域，較 3 月創下的歷史高點 73,803 美元下跌 22%。儘管如此，比特幣今年迄今的表現仍然樂觀，自去年同期以來其價值已翻倍，這主要歸功於自 1 月以來數十億美元流入新成立的交易所交易基金 (ETF)。

According to Matteo Greco, a research analyst at Fineqia, "The current downtrend stems from increased profit-taking by investors who entered the market during the downturns of 2022 and 2023, coupled with ETF investors who experienced significant price appreciation on their shares after investing in the early weeks of 2024."

Fineqia 研究分析師 Matteo Greco 表示，“當前的下跌趨勢源於在 2022 年和 2023 年經濟低迷期間進入市場的投資者獲利了結的增加，以及 ETF 投資者在投資2024 年的前幾週。”

The contagion effect has also impacted crypto-related stocks, with premarket trading witnessing declines. Coinbase, a popular cryptocurrency exchange, has lost 4.6% of its share value, while crypto miners Riot and Marathon Digital have dropped 4.2% and 4.3%, respectively.

傳染效應也影響了加密貨幣相關股票，盤前交易出現下跌。受歡迎的加密貨幣交易所 Coinbase 的股價下跌了 4.6%，而加密貨幣礦商 Riot 和 Marathon Digital 的股價分別下跌了 4.2% 和 4.3%。

The macroeconomic landscape has further exacerbated the sell-off. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to maintain interest rates, but growing sentiment among investors suggests that the Fed may not cut rates at all this year. This has dealt a blow to interest rate-sensitive assets, including cryptocurrencies, emerging market stocks, bonds, and even commodities.

宏觀經濟情勢進一步加劇了拋售。人們普遍預期聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）將維持利率不變，但投資者日益增長的情緒表明聯準會今年可能根本不會降息。這對利率敏感資產造成了打擊，包括加密貨幣、新興市場股票、債券甚至商品。

Investors have responded swiftly, with the 10 largest US spot Bitcoin ETFs facing their most significant weekly outflow since their inception in January. Outflows have reached $496 million this week, predominantly due to a slowdown in inflows into BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust, the largest ETF in terms of holdings.

投資者迅速做出反應，美國 10 隻最大的現貨比特幣 ETF 面臨自 1 月推出以來最嚴重的每週資金流出。本週資金流出已達 4.96 億美元，主要是由於貝萊德 iShares 比特幣信託（按持有量計算最大的 ETF）的資金流入放緩。

Analysts believe that Bitcoin's decline is entering a new phase, extending beyond the two largest tokens to impact even smaller alt-coins. Coingecko, a crypto website, reports that Solana's SOL token has lost nearly a quarter of its value over the past seven days, as have meme coins Dogecoin and Shiba Inu, which gained popularity in 2021 partly due to endorsements from Tesla CEO Elon Musk.

分析師認為，比特幣的下跌正在進入一個新階段，不僅影響兩個最大的代幣，也影響更小的山寨幣。加密貨幣網站Coingecko 報道稱，Solana 的SOL 代幣在過去7 天裡已經損失了近四分之一的價值，模因幣狗狗幣(Dogecoin) 和柴犬幣(Shiba Inu) 也是如此，它們在2021年流行起來，部分原因是特斯拉執行長馬斯克(Elon Musk) 的支持。

Despite the "halving event" — a change to Bitcoin's underlying technology designed to reduce the rate of new Bitcoin creation — that occurred in April, it has failed to provide meaningful support to the price. Since April 20th, when the halving event took place, Bitcoin has shed 15%. Many investors had bought into the market in anticipation of the event, but the price has since declined.

儘管「減半事件」——比特幣底層技術的改變，旨在降低新比特幣的創造速度——發生在四月份，但它未能為價格提供有意義的支撐。自4月20日減半事件發生以來，比特幣已下跌15%。許多投資者因預期該事件而入市，但價格此後下跌。

Alex Kuptsikevich, a senior market analyst for the FXPro platform, observed that Bitcoin's decline is entering a new stage from a charting perspective. He highlighted that "May is a month of seasonal weakness for Bitcoin. Moreover, the recent price drop brings support levels of $55,700 and $51,000-$52,000 into focus."

FXPro平台高級市場分析師Alex Kuptsikevich觀察到，從圖表角度來看，比特幣的下跌正在進入一個新階段。他強調，“5 月是比特幣季節性疲軟的月份。此外，最近的價格下跌使 55,700 美元和 51,000-52,000 美元的支撐位成為焦點。”

However, Kuptsikevich also noted that "today's FOMC announcements and Friday's monthly jobs data have the potential to accelerate or reverse the downtrend."

不過，庫普齊克維奇也指出，“今天的聯邦公開市場委員會公告和周五的月度就業數據有可能加速或扭轉下降趨勢。”

The cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile, and investors should proceed with caution. As economic conditions continue to evolve and regulatory frameworks take shape, the market's trajectory could shift dramatically.

加密貨幣市場仍然高度波動，投資者應謹慎行事。隨著經濟狀況的不斷發展和監管框架的形成，市場的軌跡可能會發生巨大變化。