在获利回吐和经济逆风中，比特币波动，进入新的下跌阶段

比特币价格在 4 月份创下历史新高后，由于获利回吐，暴跌近 16%，但今年迄今仍上涨 35%。分析师将下跌归因于 ETF 投资者在大幅上涨后套现，以及美联储持续加息的前景，对加密货币等利率敏感资产产生负面影响。

Bitcoin Wobbles, Entering a New Phase of Decline Amidst Profit-Taking and Economic Headwinds

比特币波动，在获利回吐和经济逆风中进入新的下跌阶段

The cryptocurrency market has witnessed a significant sell-off in April, with the world's most traded cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, enduring a 16% plunge. This drop marks a sharp correction from the parabolic rally that pushed Bitcoin to all-time highs above $70,000 earlier this year. However, despite this recent volatility, Bitcoin remains 35% higher year-to-date.

4 月份，加密货币市场出现大幅抛售，全球交易量最大的加密货币比特币暴跌 16%。此次下跌标志着抛物线反弹的大幅回调，今年早些时候，抛物线反弹将比特币推至 70,000 美元以上的历史高点。然而，尽管近期出现波动，比特币今年迄今仍上涨 35%。

The plunge commenced with Bitcoin shedding 5.6% of its value, reaching its lowest point since late February. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $57,001, down 4.8%, while Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has witnessed a more modest decline of 3.6% to $2,857, its lowest level since February as well.

暴跌始于比特币价值下跌 5.6%，达到 2 月底以来的最低点。截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格为 57,001 美元，下跌 4.8%，而按市值计算的第二大加密货币以太币则下跌 3.6%，至 2,857 美元，也是 2 月份以来的最低水平。

The recent downturn has pushed Bitcoin into bear market territory, signifying a 22% drop from its record high of $73,803 set in March. Nonetheless, Bitcoin's year-to-date performance remains positive, and it has doubled in value since this time last year, largely attributed to billions of dollars flowing into newly minted exchange-traded funds (ETFs) since January.

最近的低迷已将比特币推入熊市区域，较 3 月份创下的历史高点 73,803 美元下跌 22%。尽管如此，比特币今年迄今的表现仍然乐观，自去年同期以来其价值已翻倍，这主要归功于自 1 月份以来数十亿美元流入新成立的交易所交易基金 (ETF)。

According to Matteo Greco, a research analyst at Fineqia, "The current downtrend stems from increased profit-taking by investors who entered the market during the downturns of 2022 and 2023, coupled with ETF investors who experienced significant price appreciation on their shares after investing in the early weeks of 2024."

Fineqia 研究分析师 Matteo Greco 表示，“当前的下跌趋势源于在 2022 年和 2023 年经济低迷期间进入市场的投资者获利了结的增加，以及 ETF 投资者在投资2024 年的前几周。”

The contagion effect has also impacted crypto-related stocks, with premarket trading witnessing declines. Coinbase, a popular cryptocurrency exchange, has lost 4.6% of its share value, while crypto miners Riot and Marathon Digital have dropped 4.2% and 4.3%, respectively.

传染效应也影响了加密货币相关股票，盘前交易出现下跌。流行的加密货币交易所 Coinbase 的股价下跌了 4.6%，而加密货币矿商 Riot 和 Marathon Digital 的股价分别下跌了 4.2% 和 4.3%。

The macroeconomic landscape has further exacerbated the sell-off. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to maintain interest rates, but growing sentiment among investors suggests that the Fed may not cut rates at all this year. This has dealt a blow to interest rate-sensitive assets, including cryptocurrencies, emerging market stocks, bonds, and even commodities.

宏观经济形势进一步加剧了抛售。人们普遍预计联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将维持利率不变，但投资者日益增长的情绪表明美联储今年可能根本不会降息。这对利率敏感资产造成了打击，包括加密货币、新兴市场股票、债券甚至大宗商品。

Investors have responded swiftly, with the 10 largest US spot Bitcoin ETFs facing their most significant weekly outflow since their inception in January. Outflows have reached $496 million this week, predominantly due to a slowdown in inflows into BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust, the largest ETF in terms of holdings.

投资者迅速做出反应，美国 10 只最大的现货比特币 ETF 面临自 1 月份推出以来最严重的每周资金流出。本周资金流出已达到 4.96 亿美元，主要是由于贝莱德 iShares 比特币信托（按持有量计算最大的 ETF）的资金流入放缓。

Analysts believe that Bitcoin's decline is entering a new phase, extending beyond the two largest tokens to impact even smaller alt-coins. Coingecko, a crypto website, reports that Solana's SOL token has lost nearly a quarter of its value over the past seven days, as have meme coins Dogecoin and Shiba Inu, which gained popularity in 2021 partly due to endorsements from Tesla CEO Elon Musk.

分析师认为，比特币的下跌正在进入一个新阶段，不仅影响到两个最大的代币，还影响到更小的山寨币。加密货币网站 Coingecko 报道称，Solana 的 SOL 代币在过去 7 天里已经损失了近四分之一的价值，模因币狗狗币 (Dogecoin) 和柴犬币 (Shiba Inu) 也是如此，它们在 2021 年流行起来，部分原因是特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 的支持。

Despite the "halving event" — a change to Bitcoin's underlying technology designed to reduce the rate of new Bitcoin creation — that occurred in April, it has failed to provide meaningful support to the price. Since April 20th, when the halving event took place, Bitcoin has shed 15%. Many investors had bought into the market in anticipation of the event, but the price has since declined.

尽管“减半事件”——比特币底层技术的改变，旨在降低新比特币的创造速度——发生在四月份，但它未能为价格提供有意义的支撑。自4月20日减半事件发生以来，比特币已下跌15%。许多投资者因预期该事件而入市，但价格此后下跌。

Alex Kuptsikevich, a senior market analyst for the FXPro platform, observed that Bitcoin's decline is entering a new stage from a charting perspective. He highlighted that "May is a month of seasonal weakness for Bitcoin. Moreover, the recent price drop brings support levels of $55,700 and $51,000-$52,000 into focus."

FXPro平台高级市场分析师Alex Kuptsikevich观察到，从图表角度来看，比特币的下跌正在进入一个新阶段。他强调，“5 月是比特币季节性疲软的月份。此外，最近的价格下跌使 55,700 美元和 51,000-52,000 美元的支撑位成为焦点。”

However, Kuptsikevich also noted that "today's FOMC announcements and Friday's monthly jobs data have the potential to accelerate or reverse the downtrend."

不过，库普齐克维奇也指出，“今天的联邦公开市场委员会公告和周五的月度就业数据有可能加速或扭转下降趋势。”

The cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile, and investors should proceed with caution. As economic conditions continue to evolve and regulatory frameworks take shape, the market's trajectory could shift dramatically.

加密货币市场仍然高度波动，投资者应谨慎行事。随着经济状况的不断发展和监管框架的形成，市场的轨迹可能会发生巨大变化。