比特幣已超越最高 MVRV 偏差定價區間

鏈上數據顯示，比特幣最近超過了市場價值與實現價值（MVRV）比率的水平，該水平在歷史上一直預示著過熱狀況。

On-chain data shows Bitcoin has recently surpassed a level of the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio that has historically signaled overheated conditions.

鏈上數據顯示，比特幣最近超過了市場價值與實現價值（MVRV）比率的水平，該水平在歷史上一直預示著過熱狀況。

Bitcoin price has recently reached levels where the MVRV Ratio is 1.0 standard deviations above its mean value. Historically, BTC has tended to form tops when its price has exceeded this pricing band.

比特幣價格最近達到了 MVRV 比率比其平均值高出 1.0 個標準差的水平。從歷史上看，當比特幣的價格超過這個定價區間時，它往往會形成頂部。

In its latest weekly report, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed about how Bitcoin is looking right now from the perspective of a pricing model based on the MVRV Ratio.

在其最新的每週報告中，鏈上分析公司 Glassnode 從基於 MVRV 比率的定價模型的角度討論了比特幣目前的情況。

The MVRV Ratio is a popular BTC indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the market cap of the asset and its realized cap. The latter here is an on-chain capitalization model that, in short, tells us about the amount of capital that the investors as a whole have used to purchase their tokens.

MVRV 比率是一種流行的 BTC 指標，用於追蹤資產市值與其已實現市值之間的比率。簡而言之，後者是一個鏈上資本化模型，它告訴我們整個投資者用於購買其代幣的資本量。

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Since the MVRV Ratio compares this initial investment against the value that the investors are currently holding (that is, the market cap), it essentially provides information about the profitability of the addresses on the BTC network.

由於 MVRV 比率將初始投資與投資者目前持有的價值（即市值）進行比較，因此它本質上提供了有關 BTC 網路上地址的盈利能力的信息。

Now, the pricing model that Glassnode has created doesn’t directly make use of the MVRV Ratio itself, but rather some standard deviations (SDs) from its mean. Below is the chart for this model shared by the analytics firm in the report.

現在，Glassnode 創建的定價模型並不會直接使用 MVRV 比率本身，而是使用其平均值的一些標準差 (SD)。以下是分析公司在報告中分享的該模型的圖表。

In this model, pricing levels correspond to BTC prices at which the MVRV Ratio would attain a value equal to a certain SD above or below its mean. At the +0.5 SD level, for instance, the MVRV Ratio is 0.5 SD greater than its mean value.

在此模型中，定價水準對應於 MVRV 比率達到等於高於或低於其平均值的某個 SD 的值的 BTC 價格。例如，在 +0.5 SD 水準時，MVRV 比率比其平均值大 0.5 SD。

From the graph, it’s apparent that the Bitcoin price has broken past the highest of the pricing bands part of this model with its latest run. The level in question is the +1.0 SD, equivalent to $90,200 at the moment.

從圖中可以明顯看出，比特幣價格在最新的運行中已經突破了該模型定價帶的最高部分。所討論的水平是 +1.0 SD，目前相當於 90,200 美元。

Historically, BTC has tended to form tops when its price has exceeded this pricing band. The reason behind this is the fact that at such high levels of the MVRV Ratio, the investors carry a significant amount of profits, so a mass selloff with the motive of profit-taking can become a real possibility.

從歷史上看，當比特幣的價格超過這個定價區間時，它往往會形成頂部。背後的原因是，在如此高的MVRV比率下，投資者持有大量利潤，因此出於獲利回吐動機的大規模拋售可能成為現實。

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The last time that the cryptocurrency broke past this barrier was in the first quarter of this year. As is visible in the chart, it didn’t take the price long to top out back then.

加密貨幣上次突破這一障礙是在今年第一季。從圖表中可以看出，當時價格並沒有花很長時間就達到頂峰。

In full-blown bull markets in the past, however, Bitcoin has generally sustained inside this overheated territory for notable periods of time before finding a peak. An example of this trend is also highlighted in the chart; the first half 2021 bull run saw the coin stay in the zone for a few months thanks to high capital inflows.

然而，在過去全面的牛市中，比特幣在達到高峰之前通常會在這個過熱區域內持續相當長的一段時間。圖表中也突出顯示了這種趨勢的一個範例；由於大量資本流入，2021 年上半年牛市中該幣在該區域停留了幾個月。

As such, it’s not necessary that BTC would immediately reach a cyclical top now that it has become overheated on this model.

因此，既然比特幣在這個模型上已經變得過熱，那麼它沒有必要立即達到週期性頂部。

BTC Price

比特幣價格

Bitcoin had risen beyond the $98,000 level earlier in the past day, but it seems the coin has suffered a minor setback as it’s now back at $97,500.

過去一天早些時候，比特幣已突破 98,000 美元的水平，但該幣似乎遭受了輕微的挫折，目前已回到 97,500 美元。