比特币已超越最高 MVRV 偏差定价区间

链上数据显示，比特币最近超过了市场价值与实现价值（MVRV）比率的水平，该水平在历史上一直预示着过热状况。

On-chain data shows Bitcoin has recently surpassed a level of the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio that has historically signaled overheated conditions.

链上数据显示，比特币最近超过了市场价值与实现价值（MVRV）比率的水平，该水平在历史上一直预示着过热状况。

Bitcoin price has recently reached levels where the MVRV Ratio is 1.0 standard deviations above its mean value. Historically, BTC has tended to form tops when its price has exceeded this pricing band.

比特币价格最近达到了 MVRV 比率比其平均值高出 1.0 个标准差的水平。从历史上看，当比特币的价格超过这个定价区间时，它往往会形成顶部。

In its latest weekly report, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed about how Bitcoin is looking right now from the perspective of a pricing model based on the MVRV Ratio.

在其最新的每周报告中，链上分析公司 Glassnode 从基于 MVRV 比率的定价模型的角度讨论了比特币目前的情况。

The MVRV Ratio is a popular BTC indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the market cap of the asset and its realized cap. The latter here is an on-chain capitalization model that, in short, tells us about the amount of capital that the investors as a whole have used to purchase their tokens.

MVRV 比率是一种流行的 BTC 指标，用于跟踪资产市值与其已实现市值之间的比率。简而言之，后者是一个链上资本化模型，它告诉我们整个投资者用于购买其代币的资本量。

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Since the MVRV Ratio compares this initial investment against the value that the investors are currently holding (that is, the market cap), it essentially provides information about the profitability of the addresses on the BTC network.

由于 MVRV 比率将初始投资与投资者当前持有的价值（即市值）进行比较，因此它本质上提供了有关 BTC 网络上地址的盈利能力的信息。

Now, the pricing model that Glassnode has created doesn’t directly make use of the MVRV Ratio itself, but rather some standard deviations (SDs) from its mean. Below is the chart for this model shared by the analytics firm in the report.

现在，Glassnode 创建的定价模型并不直接使用 MVRV 比率本身，而是使用其平均值的一些标准差 (SD)。下面是分析公司在报告中分享的该模型的图表。

In this model, pricing levels correspond to BTC prices at which the MVRV Ratio would attain a value equal to a certain SD above or below its mean. At the +0.5 SD level, for instance, the MVRV Ratio is 0.5 SD greater than its mean value.

在此模型中，定价水平对应于 MVRV 比率达到等于高于或低于其平均值的某个 SD 的值的 BTC 价格。例如，在 +0.5 SD 水平时，MVRV 比率比其平均值大 0.5 SD。

From the graph, it’s apparent that the Bitcoin price has broken past the highest of the pricing bands part of this model with its latest run. The level in question is the +1.0 SD, equivalent to $90,200 at the moment.

从图中可以明显看出，比特币价格在最新的运行中已经突破了该模型定价带的最高部分。所讨论的水平是 +1.0 SD，目前相当于 90,200 美元。

Historically, BTC has tended to form tops when its price has exceeded this pricing band. The reason behind this is the fact that at such high levels of the MVRV Ratio, the investors carry a significant amount of profits, so a mass selloff with the motive of profit-taking can become a real possibility.

从历史上看，当比特币的价格超过这个定价区间时，它往往会形成顶部。其背后的原因是，在如此高的MVRV比率下，投资者持有大量利润，因此出于获利回吐动机的大规模抛售可能成为现实。

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The last time that the cryptocurrency broke past this barrier was in the first quarter of this year. As is visible in the chart, it didn’t take the price long to top out back then.

加密货币上次突破这一障碍是在今年第一季度。从图表中可以看出，当时价格并没有花很长时间就达到顶峰。

In full-blown bull markets in the past, however, Bitcoin has generally sustained inside this overheated territory for notable periods of time before finding a peak. An example of this trend is also highlighted in the chart; the first half 2021 bull run saw the coin stay in the zone for a few months thanks to high capital inflows.

然而，在过去全面的牛市中，比特币在达到峰值之前通常会在这个过热区域内持续相当长的一段时间。图表中还突出显示了这种趋势的一个示例；由于大量资本流入，2021 年上半年牛市中该币在该区域停留了几个月。

As such, it’s not necessary that BTC would immediately reach a cyclical top now that it has become overheated on this model.

因此，既然比特币在这个模型上已经过热，那么它没有必要立即达到周期性顶部。

BTC Price

比特币价格

Bitcoin had risen beyond the $98,000 level earlier in the past day, but it seems the coin has suffered a minor setback as it’s now back at $97,500.

过去一天早些时候，比特币已突破 98,000 美元的水平，但该币似乎遭受了轻微的挫折，目前已回到 97,500 美元。