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由於需求飆升達到前所未有的高度,比特幣在未來幾個月內遭遇賣方流動性危機的可能性被認為極高。分析師預測,目前賣方流動性供應僅夠維持六至十二個月的時間。然而,流動性庫存的下降可能會對比特幣(BTC)的價格產生正面影響。
Bitcoin Faces Impending Sell-Side Liquidity Crisis as Demand Soars to Record Highs
隨著需求飆升至歷史新高,比特幣面臨迫在眉睫的賣方流動性危機
New York, NY, March 16, 2024 - The cryptocurrency market is bracing for a potential sell-side liquidity crisis for Bitcoin (BTC), as demand for the digital asset has reached unprecedented levels. According to a comprehensive report published by CryptoQuant, a leading crypto analytics firm, the current supply of Bitcoin available for sale is rapidly dwindling, raising concerns among analysts and investors.
紐約州紐約市,2024 年 3 月 16 日 - 隨著對數位資產的需求達到前所未有的水平,加密貨幣市場正在準備迎接比特幣 (BTC) 潛在的賣方流動性危機。根據領先的加密貨幣分析公司 CryptoQuant 發布的一份綜合報告,目前可供出售的比特幣供應量正在迅速減少,引起了分析師和投資者的擔憂。
Unprecedented Demand Surges
前所未有的需求激增
The monthly demand for Bitcoin has skyrocketed from a mere 40,000 BTC at the beginning of 2024 to an astonishing 213,000 BTC at the time of writing. This surge is primarily driven by the launch of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States, attracting institutional investors and retail traders alike. Additionally, large holders, known as "whales," have been amassing BTC at an unprecedented rate, contributing to the soaring demand.
比特幣的每月需求量已從 2024 年初的區區 40,000 BTC 飆升至撰寫本文時的驚人 213,000 BTC。這一激增主要是由於美國推出比特幣交易所交易基金(ETF),吸引了機構投資者和散戶交易者。此外,被稱為「鯨魚」的大持有者一直在以前所未有的速度累積比特幣,導致需求飆升。
CryptoQuant measures demand using the 30-day growth in the total balance of accumulation addresses, excluding centralized exchanges (CEXs) and mining pools. These addresses hold over 10 BTC, have no outflows, and have been active for the past seven years. The rapid growth in the balance of these accumulation addresses indicates a strong long-term holding sentiment among Bitcoin investors.
CryptoQuant 使用累積位址總餘額 30 天的成長來衡量需求,不包括中心化交易所 (CEX) 和礦池。這些地址持有超過 10 BTC,沒有流出,並且在過去七年中一直活躍。這些增持地址餘額的快速增長表明了比特幣投資者強烈的長期持有情緒。
Sell-Side Liquidity Plummets
賣方流動性暴跌
While demand for Bitcoin continues to surge, the supply of Bitcoin available for sale, known as sell-side liquidity, has been declining steadily. The total amount of BTC held by entities with substantial sell-side liquidity, such as CEX reserves, over-the-counter desks, and Bitcoin miners, has fallen from 3.5 million BTC in March 2020 to approximately 2.7 million BTC at present.
儘管對比特幣的需求持續激增,但可供出售的比特幣供應量(即賣方流動性)卻一直在穩步下降。 CEX儲備、場外交易平台和比特幣礦工等具有大量賣方流動性的實體持有的BTC總量已從2020年3月的350萬比特幣下降至目前的約270萬比特幣。
Grayscale's Role in the Crisis
灰階在危機中的作用
Grayscale's GBTC, the largest Bitcoin investment fund, holds a significant portion of the sell-side liquidity. However, the ETF has been experiencing massive investor redemptions, leading to an increase in the supply of BTC for sale. Without Grayscale's GBTC, the sell-side liquidity would have reached its lowest level since February 2018.
Grayscale 旗下的 GBTC 是最大的比特幣投資基金,持有很大一部分賣方流動性。然而,該 ETF 一直在經歷大量投資者贖回,導致待售 BTC 供應增加。如果沒有灰階的 GBTC,賣方流動性將達到 2018 年 2 月以來的最低水準。
Impending Crisis and Its Implications
即將發生的危機及其影響
The combination of skyrocketing demand and declining sell-side liquidity has created an impending sell-side liquidity crisis for Bitcoin. According to CryptoQuant, the current inventory of available BTC is sufficient to meet demand for only six to twelve months at the current rate.
需求飆升和賣方流動性下降相結合,為比特幣帶來了迫在眉睫的賣方流動性危機。據 CryptoQuant 稱,以目前的價格計算,目前可用 BTC 的庫存僅足以滿足六到十二個月的需求。
This liquidity shortage could have significant implications for the price of Bitcoin. As demand continues to outstrip supply, the price of BTC is likely to rise as investors scramble to acquire the limited available supply. However, the severity of the price increase will depend on several factors, including the pace of demand growth, the availability of new supply from miners, and market sentiment.
這種流動性短缺可能會對比特幣的價格產生重大影響。隨著需求繼續超過供應,隨著投資者爭先恐後地購買有限的可用供應,比特幣的價格可能會上漲。然而,價格上漲的嚴重程度將取決於幾個因素,包括需求成長的速度、礦商新供應的可用性以及市場情緒。
Potential Mitigation Strategies
潛在的緩解策略
Analysts at CryptoQuant suggest several measures that could mitigate the impending liquidity crisis. One potential solution is for new liquidity providers to enter the market, offering BTC for sale at attractive prices. Additionally, miners could increase their selling activity to provide more supply to meet the rising demand.
CryptoQuant 的分析師提出了一些可以緩解即將到來的流動性危機的措施。一種潛在的解決方案是讓新的流動性提供者進入市場,以有吸引力的價格出售 BTC。此外,礦商可以增加銷售活動,以提供更多供應來滿足不斷增長的需求。
Conclusion
結論
The sell-side liquidity crisis facing Bitcoin is a complex and evolving situation. While demand for BTC continues to soar, the supply of available coins is rapidly shrinking. The implications of this crisis could be significant, affecting the price and overall market dynamics of Bitcoin. As the situation unfolds, investors and market participants should remain vigilant and closely monitor the changing landscape.
比特幣面臨的賣方流動性危機是一個複雜且不斷變化的情況。儘管比特幣的需求持續飆升,但可用硬幣的供應卻在迅速萎縮。這場危機的影響可能很大,會影響比特幣的價格和整體市場動態。隨著事態的發展,投資者和市場參與者應保持警惕,密切關注情況的變化。
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