不管特朗普的貿易策略成功還是失敗，比特幣都可能達到新的高位：

隨著全球經濟摩擦的升級，特朗普總統施加的關稅本週席捲了金融市場，削減了股票，比特幣和加密貨幣。

President Trump’s tariffs have roiled financial markets this week, cutting across both equities and cryptocurrencies. But a new memo from Bitwise Asset Management suggests that these headwinds might ultimately propel Bitcoin to new heights—regardless of whether Trump’s strategy succeeds or fails.

特朗普總統的關稅本週席捲了金融市場，削減了股票和加密貨幣。但是，位資產管理的新備忘錄表明，這些逆風可能最終將比特幣推向新的高度，而沒有指向特朗普的策略是否成功還是失敗。

At the beginning of the week, the crypto market witnessed a severe sell-off. Bitcoin declined by about 5%, while Ethereum and XRP suffered even sharper losses—17% and 18%, respectively. The immediate catalyst was Trump’s imposition of a 25% tariff on most imports from Canada and Mexico, as well as a 10% tariff on China. In retaliation, those trading partners announced countermeasures of their own.

在本周初，加密貨幣市場見證了嚴重的拋售。比特幣下降了約5％，而以太坊和XRP分別遭受了更明顯的損失，分別為17％和18％。直接的催化劑是特朗普對加拿大和墨西哥進口的大多數進口徵收25％的關稅，以及對中國的10％關稅。為了報復，那些貿易夥伴宣布了自己的對策。

The US dollar reacted by jumping more than 1% against major currencies. That, combined with lingering weekend illiquidity in crypto markets, triggered a wave of forced liquidations as leveraged traders sold into the downdraft. According to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, as much as $10 billion in leveraged positions was wiped out in what he described as “the largest liquidation event in crypto’s history.”

美元通過對主要貨幣躍升1％以上的反應。加上加密貨幣市場上週末揮之不去的流動性，隨著槓桿交易者出售到下降的氣息，引發了一波強迫清算。根據Bitwise首席投資官Matt Hougan的說法，在他所說的“加密歷史上最大的清算活動”中刪除了多達100億美元的槓桿職位。

Despite the dramatic price action, Bitwise’s Head of Alpha Strategies, Jeffrey Park, remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s trajectory. He points to two guiding ideas that shape his bullish thesis: the ‘Triffin Dilemma’ and President Trump’s broader aim to restructure America’s trade dynamics.

儘管價格急劇動作，但Bitwise的Alpha策略負責人Jeffrey Park仍然對比特幣的軌跡樂觀。他指出了兩個指導思想，這些思想塑造了他看漲的論文：“特里芬困境”和特朗普總統在重組美國貿易動態的更廣泛的目標。

The Triffin Dilemma highlights the conflict between a currency serving as a global reserve—generating consistent demand and overvaluation—and the need to run persistent trade deficits to supply enough currency abroad. While this status allows the US to borrow cheaply, it also puts sustained pressure on domestic manufacturing and exports.

特里芬（Triffin）的困境強調了用作全球儲備的貨幣之間的衝突，即一致的需求和高估 - 以及需要持續的貿易赤字以在國外提供足夠的貨幣。儘管這種地位使美國易於借貸，但它也給國內製造和出口帶來了持續的壓力。

“Trump wants to get rid of the negatives, but keep the positives,” Park explains, suggesting that tariffs may be a negotiating tool to compel other nations to the table—reminiscent of the 1985 Plaza Accord, which devalued the dollar in coordination with other major economies.

帕克解釋說：“特朗普想擺脫否定因素，但要保持積極的態度。”他表明，關稅可能是強迫其他國家的談判工具，這是1985年的廣場協議，這使美元與其他人協調貶值主要經濟體。

The Two Scenarios: Bitcoin Wins, Fiat Loses

兩種情況：比特幣獲勝，菲亞特輸了

Park argues that Bitcoin stands to benefit under two distinct outcomes of Trump’s current trade policy:

帕克認為，在特朗普當前的貿易政策的兩個不同結果下，比特幣將受益：

Scenario 1: Trump Succeeds in Weakening the Dollar (While Keeping Rates Low)

方案1：特朗普成功削弱了美元（同時保持稅率低）

If Trump can maneuver a multilateral agreement—akin to a ‘Plaza Accord 2.0’—to reduce the dollar’s overvaluation without boosting long-term interest rates, risk appetite among US investors could surge. In this environment, a non-sovereign asset like Bitcoin, free from capital controls and dilution, would likely attract additional inflows. Meanwhile, other nations grappling with the fallout of a weaker dollar might deploy fiscal and monetary stimulus to support their economies, potentially driving even more capital toward alternative assets like Bitcoin.

如果特朗普能夠操縱多邊協議（Akin至“廣場協議2.0”），以減少美元的高估而不會提高長期利率，那麼美國投資者中的風險食慾可能會激增。在這種環境下，沒有資本控制和稀釋的非主管資產可能會吸引更多的流入。同時，其他國家努力應對較弱的美元後果可能會部署財政和貨幣刺激來支持其經濟，從而有可能將更多的資金推向諸如比特幣之類的替代資產。

“If Trump can bully his way into the position, there’s no asset better positioned than bitcoin. Lower rates will spark the risk appetite of US investors, sending prices high. Abroad, countries will face weakened economies, and will turn to classic economic stimulus to compensate, leading again to higher bitcoin prices,” Park argues.

“如果特朗普能夠欺負自己進入該職位，那麼沒有比比特幣更好的資產。較低的利率將激髮美國投資者的胃口風險，從而使價格高。在國外，各國將面臨削弱的經濟體，並將轉向經典的經濟刺激以補償，再次導致比特幣價格更高。”帕克說。

Scenario 2: A Prolonged Trade War And Massive Money Printing

方案2：長時間的貿易戰爭和大量的貨幣印刷

If Trump fails to secure a broad-based deal and the trade war grinds on, global economic weakness would almost certainly invite extensive monetary stimulus from central banks. Historically, such large-scale liquidity injections have been bullish for Bitcoin, as investors seek deflationary and decentralized assets insulated from central bank policies

如果特朗普未能達成廣泛的交易和貿易戰的解決，幾乎可以肯定，全球經濟弱點將引起中央銀行的廣泛貨幣刺激。從歷史上看，由於投資者尋求從中央銀行政策中隔離的放氣和分散資產，因此這種大規模的流動性注入一直是比特幣的看好

“And what if he fails? What if, instead, we get a sustained tariff war? Our high-conviction view is the resulting economic weakness will lead to money printing on a scale larger than we’ve ever seen. And historically, such stimulus has been extraordinarily good for bitcoin,” Park says..

“如果他失敗了怎麼辦？如果我們得到持續的關稅戰爭怎麼辦？我們的高定罪觀點是，由此產生的經濟弱點將導致貨幣印刷的規模比我們見過的要大。從歷史上看，這種刺激對比特幣非常有利。”帕克說。

At press time, BTC traded at $98,557.

發稿時，BTC的交易價格為98,557美元。