不管特朗普的贸易策略成功还是失败，比特币都可能达到新的高位：

随着全球经济摩擦的升级，特朗普总统施加的关税本周席卷了金融市场，削减了股票，比特币和加密货币。

President Trump’s tariffs have roiled financial markets this week, cutting across both equities and cryptocurrencies. But a new memo from Bitwise Asset Management suggests that these headwinds might ultimately propel Bitcoin to new heights—regardless of whether Trump’s strategy succeeds or fails.

特朗普总统的关税本周席卷了金融市场，削减了股票和加密货币。但是，位资产管理的新备忘录表明，这些逆风可能最终将比特币推向新的高度，而没有指向特朗普的策略是否成功还是失败。

At the beginning of the week, the crypto market witnessed a severe sell-off. Bitcoin declined by about 5%, while Ethereum and XRP suffered even sharper losses—17% and 18%, respectively. The immediate catalyst was Trump’s imposition of a 25% tariff on most imports from Canada and Mexico, as well as a 10% tariff on China. In retaliation, those trading partners announced countermeasures of their own.

在本周初，加密货币市场见证了严重的抛售。比特币下降了约5％，而以太坊和XRP分别遭受了更明显的损失，分别为17％和18％。直接的催化剂是特朗普对加拿大和墨西哥进口的大多数进口征收25％的关税，以及对中国的10％关税。为了报复，那些贸易伙伴宣布了自己的对策。

The US dollar reacted by jumping more than 1% against major currencies. That, combined with lingering weekend illiquidity in crypto markets, triggered a wave of forced liquidations as leveraged traders sold into the downdraft. According to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, as much as $10 billion in leveraged positions was wiped out in what he described as “the largest liquidation event in crypto’s history.”

美元通过对主要货币跃升1％以上的反应。加上加密货币市场上周末挥之不去的流动性，随着杠杆交易者出售到下降的气息，引发了一波强迫清算。根据Bitwise首席投资官Matt Hougan的说法，在他所说的“加密历史上最大的清算活动”中删除了多达100亿美元的杠杆职位。

Despite the dramatic price action, Bitwise’s Head of Alpha Strategies, Jeffrey Park, remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s trajectory. He points to two guiding ideas that shape his bullish thesis: the ‘Triffin Dilemma’ and President Trump’s broader aim to restructure America’s trade dynamics.

尽管价格急剧动作，但Bitwise的Alpha策略负责人Jeffrey Park仍然对比特币的轨迹乐观。他指出了两个指导思想，这些思想塑造了他看涨的论文：“特里芬困境”和特朗普总统在重组美国贸易动态的更广泛的目标。

The Triffin Dilemma highlights the conflict between a currency serving as a global reserve—generating consistent demand and overvaluation—and the need to run persistent trade deficits to supply enough currency abroad. While this status allows the US to borrow cheaply, it also puts sustained pressure on domestic manufacturing and exports.

特里芬（Triffin）的困境强调了用作全球储备的货币之间的冲突，即一致的需求和高估 - 以及需要持续的贸易赤字以在国外提供足够的货币。尽管这种地位使美国易于借贷，但它也给国内制造和出口带来了持续的压力。

“Trump wants to get rid of the negatives, but keep the positives,” Park explains, suggesting that tariffs may be a negotiating tool to compel other nations to the table—reminiscent of the 1985 Plaza Accord, which devalued the dollar in coordination with other major economies.

帕克解释说：“特朗普想摆脱否定因素，但要保持积极的态度。”他表明，关税可能是强迫其他国家的谈判工具，这是1985年的广场协议，这使美元与其他人协调贬值主要经济体。

The Two Scenarios: Bitcoin Wins, Fiat Loses

两种情况：比特币获胜，菲亚特输了

Park argues that Bitcoin stands to benefit under two distinct outcomes of Trump’s current trade policy:

帕克认为，在特朗普当前的贸易政策的两个不同结果下，比特币将受益：

Scenario 1: Trump Succeeds in Weakening the Dollar (While Keeping Rates Low)

方案1：特朗普成功削弱了美元（同时保持税率低）

If Trump can maneuver a multilateral agreement—akin to a ‘Plaza Accord 2.0’—to reduce the dollar’s overvaluation without boosting long-term interest rates, risk appetite among US investors could surge. In this environment, a non-sovereign asset like Bitcoin, free from capital controls and dilution, would likely attract additional inflows. Meanwhile, other nations grappling with the fallout of a weaker dollar might deploy fiscal and monetary stimulus to support their economies, potentially driving even more capital toward alternative assets like Bitcoin.

如果特朗普能够操纵多边协议（Akin至“广场协议2.0”），以减少美元的高估而不会提高长期利率，那么美国投资者中的风险食欲可能会激增。在这种环境下，没有资本控制和稀释的非主管资产可能会吸引更多的流入。同时，其他国家努力应对较弱的美元后果可能会部署财政和货币刺激来支持其经济，从而有可能将更多的资金推向诸如比特币之类的替代资产。

“If Trump can bully his way into the position, there’s no asset better positioned than bitcoin. Lower rates will spark the risk appetite of US investors, sending prices high. Abroad, countries will face weakened economies, and will turn to classic economic stimulus to compensate, leading again to higher bitcoin prices,” Park argues.

“如果特朗普能够欺负自己进入该职位，那么没有比比特币更好的资产。较低的利率将激发美国投资者的胃口风险，从而使价格高。在国外，各国将面临削弱的经济体，并将转向经典的经济刺激以补偿，再次导致比特币价格更高。”帕克说。

Scenario 2: A Prolonged Trade War And Massive Money Printing

方案2：长时间的贸易战争和大量的货币印刷

If Trump fails to secure a broad-based deal and the trade war grinds on, global economic weakness would almost certainly invite extensive monetary stimulus from central banks. Historically, such large-scale liquidity injections have been bullish for Bitcoin, as investors seek deflationary and decentralized assets insulated from central bank policies

如果特朗普未能达成广泛的交易和贸易战的解决，几乎可以肯定，全球经济弱点将引起中央银行的广泛货币刺激。从历史上看，由于投资者寻求从中央银行政策中隔离的放气和分散资产，因此这种大规模的流动性注入一直是比特币的看好

“And what if he fails? What if, instead, we get a sustained tariff war? Our high-conviction view is the resulting economic weakness will lead to money printing on a scale larger than we’ve ever seen. And historically, such stimulus has been extraordinarily good for bitcoin,” Park says..

“如果他失败了怎么办？如果我们得到持续的关税战争怎么办？我们的高定罪观点是，由此产生的经济弱点将导致货币印刷的规模比我们见过的要大。从历史上看，这种刺激对比特币非常有利。”帕克说。

At press time, BTC traded at $98,557.

发稿时，BTC的交易价格为98,557美元。