比特幣交易所交易的產品可能從根本上改變了加密“ Altseason”的概念。

本文探討了比特幣交易所交易產品如何從根本上改變了加密“ Altseason”的概念。

Bitcoin exchange-traded products may have fundamentally altered the concept of a crypto “altseason.”

比特幣交易所交易的產品可能從根本上改變了加密“ Altseason”的概念。

For years, the crypto market followed a familiar rhythm, a near-predictible dance of capital rotation. Bitcoin BTCUSD surged, bringing mainstream attention and liquidity, and then the floodgates opened to altcoins. Speculative capital rushed into lower-cap assets, inflating their values in what traders euphorically deemed “altseason.”

多年來，加密貨幣市場遵循熟悉的節奏，這是一種幾乎可以預測的資本輪換舞蹈。比特幣BTCUSD激增，引起了主流的關注和流動性，然後閘門向Altcoins開放。投機資本衝入了低審核資產，在交易者欣喜地認為“ altseason”的價值中膨脹了價值。

However, once taken for granted, this cycle shows signs of a structural collapse.

但是，一旦將其視為理所當然，這個週期顯示了結構崩潰的跡象。

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have shattered records, funneling $129 billion in capital inflows in 2024. This has provided unprecedented access to Bitcoin for both retail and institutional investors, yet it has also created a vacuum, sucking capital away from speculative assets. Institutional players now have a safe, regulated way to gain exposure to crypto without the Wild West risks of the altcoin market. Many retail investors are also finding ETFs more appealing than the perilous hunt for the next 100x token. Well-known Bitcoin analyst Plan B even traded in his actual BTC for a spot ETF.

現貨比特幣交易所貿易資金（ETF）的記錄破碎了，在2024年匯集了1,290億美元的資本流入。這為零售和機構投資者提供了前所未有的比特幣訪問權限，但它也創造了一個真空，從而使資本遠離投機資產。機構參與者現在有一種安全，受規定的方法，可以在沒有山寨幣市場的野生西部風險的情況下獲得加密貨幣。許多散戶投資者還發現，與接下來的100倍令牌的危險狩獵相比，ETF更具吸引力。著名的比特幣分析師計劃B甚至在他的實際BTC中交易了一個現場ETF。

The shift is happening in real time, and if the capital remains locked in structured products, altcoins face a diminishing share of market liquidity and relevance.

這種轉變是實時發生的，如果資本仍然鎖定在結構化產品中，則山寨幣將面臨市場流動性和相關性的份額減少。

Is the altseason dead? The rise of structured crypto exposure

阿爾特賽季死了嗎？結構化加密貨幣的興起

Bitcoin ETFs offer an alternative to chasing high-risk, low-cap assets, as investors can access leverage, liquidity and regulatory clarity through structured products. The retail crowd, once a major driver of altcoin speculation, now has direct access to Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) ETFs, vehicles that eliminate self-custody concerns, mitigate counterparty risk and align with traditional investment frameworks.

比特幣ETF提供了追逐高風險，低位資產的替代方法，因為投資者可以通過結構化產品獲得槓桿，流動性和監管清晰度。零售人群曾經是Altcoin猜測的主要驅動力，現在可以直接訪問比特幣和Ether（ETH）ETF，消除自我顧客關注的車輛，減輕對手的風險並與傳統的投資框架保持一致。

Institutions have even greater incentives to sidestep altcoin risk. Hedge funds and professional trading desks, which once chased higher returns in low-liquidity altcoins, can deploy leverage through derivatives or take exposure via ETFs on legacy financial rails.

機構有更多的激勵措施來避開Altcoin風險。對沖基金和專業貿易台曾經在低流動性高度銷售中追捕較高的回報，可以通過衍生工具部署槓桿作用，或通過ETF在舊版金融軌道上進行曝光。

With the ability to hedge through options and futures, the incentive to gamble on illiquid, low-volume altcoins diminishes significantly. This has been further reinforced by the record $2.4 billion in outflows in February and arbitrage opportunities created by ETF redemptions, forcing a level of discipline into crypto markets that did not previously exist.

憑藉對期權和未來的對沖的能力，賭博流動性的動機大大減少了流動性的動力。二月份的24億美元流出和ETF贖回創造的套利機會進一步加強了這一點，迫使一級紀律進入以前不存在的加密貨幣市場。

Will venture capital abandon crypto startups?

風險資本會放棄加密初創公司嗎？

Venture capital (VC) firms have historically been the lifeblood of alt seasons, injecting liquidity into nascent projects and spinning grand narratives around emerging tokens.

從歷史上看，風險投資（VC）公司一直是ALT季節的命脈，將流動性注入新生的項目，並在新興的代幣周圍旋轉了宏偉的敘事。

However, with leverage being easily accessible and capital efficiency a key priority, VCs are rethinking their approach.

但是，隨著槓桿易於訪問和資本效率的關鍵優先級，VC正在重新考慮其方法。

VCs strive to make as much return on investment (ROI) as possible, but the typical range is between 17% and 25%. In traditional finance, the risk-free rate of capital serves as the benchmark against which all investments are measured, typically represented by US Treasury yields.

VCS努力使投資回報率盡可能多，但典型範圍在17％至25％之間。在傳統金融中，無風險的資本利率是所有投資的基準，通常由美國財政收益率代表。

In the crypto space, Bitcoin’s historical growth rate functions as a similar baseline for expected returns. This effectively becomes the industry’s version of the risk-free rate. Over the last decade, Bitcoin’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the past 10 years has averaged 77%, significantly outperforming traditional assets like gold (8%) and the S&P 500 (11%). Even over the past five years, including both bull and bear market conditions, Bitcoin has maintained a 67% CAGR.

在加密貨幣領域，比特幣的歷史增長率是預期收益的類似基線。這有效地成為行業的無風險利率版本。在過去的十年中，比特幣在過去10年中的複合年增長率（CAGR）的平均值為77％，大大優於黃金（8％）和標準普爾500（11％）的傳統資產。即使在過去的五年中，包括牛市和熊市狀況在內，比特幣也保持了67％的複合年增長率。

Using this as a baseline, a venture capitalist deploying capital in Bitcoin or Bitcoin-related ventures at this growth rate would see a total ROI of approximately 1,199% over five years, meaning the investment would increase nearly 12x.

以此為基準，以這種增長率在比特幣或比特幣相關的企業中部署資本的風險投資家將在五年內總ROI約為1,199％，這意味著這項投資將增加近12倍。

While Bitcoin remains volatile, its long-term outperformance has positioned it as the fundamental benchmark for evaluating risk-adjusted returns in the crypto space. With arbitrage opportunities and reduced risk, VCs may play the safer bet.

儘管比特幣仍然波動，但其長期優先表現將其定位為評估加密貨幣領域中風險調整後收益的基本基準。憑藉套利機會和降低的風險，風險投資可能會更安全的賭注。

In 2024, VC deal counts dropped 46%, even as overall investment volumes rebounded in Q4. This signals a shift toward more selective, high-value projects rather than speculative funding.

在2024年，VC交易數量下降了46％，即使總投資量在第四季度反彈。這表明向更具選擇性，高價值項目而不是投機性資金轉變。

Web3 and AI-driven crypto startups are still drawing attention, but the days of indiscriminate funding for every token with a white paper may be numbered. If venture capital pivots further toward structured exposure through ETFs rather than a direct investment in risky startups, the consequences could be severe for new altcoin projects.

Web3和AI驅動的加密初創公司仍在引起人們的注意，但是可能會編號每份使用白皮書的代幣資助的日子。如果風險投資將進一步的探索通過ETF而不是直接投資於風險初創公司，那麼對於新的Altcoin項目而言，後果可能會很嚴重。

Meanwhile, the few altcoin projects that have made it onto institutional radars — such as Aptos, which recently saw an ETF filing — are exceptions, not the rule. Even crypto index ETFs, designed to capture broader exposure, have struggled to attract meaningful inflows, underscoring that capital is concentrated rather than dispersed.

同時，少數已將其進入機構雷達的山寨幣項目（例如最近看到ETF申請的Aptos）是例外，而不是規則。即使是旨在捕捉更廣泛暴露的加密指數ETF，也努力吸引有意義的流入，強調資本​​是集中而不是分散的。

The oversupply problem and the new market reality

供應問題和新市場現實

The landscape has shifted. The sheer number of altcoins vying for attention has created a saturation problem. According to Dune Analytics, over 40 million tokens are currently in

景觀發生了變化。爭奪注意力的巨大山寨幣數量造成了飽和問題。根據Dune Analytics的說法，目前有超過4000萬個令牌