比特币交易所交易的产品可能从根本上改变了加密“ Altseason”的概念。

本文探讨了比特币交易所交易产品如何从根本上改变了加密“ Altseason”的概念。

Bitcoin exchange-traded products may have fundamentally altered the concept of a crypto “altseason.”

比特币交易所交易的产品可能从根本上改变了加密“ Altseason”的概念。

For years, the crypto market followed a familiar rhythm, a near-predictible dance of capital rotation. Bitcoin BTCUSD surged, bringing mainstream attention and liquidity, and then the floodgates opened to altcoins. Speculative capital rushed into lower-cap assets, inflating their values in what traders euphorically deemed “altseason.”

多年来，加密货币市场遵循熟悉的节奏，这是一种几乎可以预测的资本轮换舞蹈。比特币BTCUSD激增，引起了主流的关注和流动性，然后闸门向Altcoins开放。投机资本冲入了低审核资产，在交易者欣喜地认为“ altseason”的价值中膨胀了价值。

However, once taken for granted, this cycle shows signs of a structural collapse.

但是，一旦将其视为理所当然，这个周期显示了结构崩溃的迹象。

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have shattered records, funneling $129 billion in capital inflows in 2024. This has provided unprecedented access to Bitcoin for both retail and institutional investors, yet it has also created a vacuum, sucking capital away from speculative assets. Institutional players now have a safe, regulated way to gain exposure to crypto without the Wild West risks of the altcoin market. Many retail investors are also finding ETFs more appealing than the perilous hunt for the next 100x token. Well-known Bitcoin analyst Plan B even traded in his actual BTC for a spot ETF.

现货比特币交易所贸易资金（ETF）的记录破碎了，在2024年汇集了1,290亿美元的资本流入。这为零售和机构投资者提供了前所未有的比特币访问权限，但它也创造了一个真空，从而使资本远离投机资产。机构参与者现在有一种安全，受规定的方法，可以在没有山寨币市场的野生西部风险的情况下获得加密货币。许多散户投资者还发现，与接下来的100倍令牌的危险狩猎相比，ETF更具吸引力。著名的比特币分析师计划B甚至在他的实际BTC中交易了一个现场ETF。

The shift is happening in real time, and if the capital remains locked in structured products, altcoins face a diminishing share of market liquidity and relevance.

这种转变是实时发生的，如果资本仍然锁定在结构化产品中，则山寨币将面临市场流动性和相关性的份额减少。

Is the altseason dead? The rise of structured crypto exposure

阿尔特赛季死了吗？结构化加密货币的兴起

Bitcoin ETFs offer an alternative to chasing high-risk, low-cap assets, as investors can access leverage, liquidity and regulatory clarity through structured products. The retail crowd, once a major driver of altcoin speculation, now has direct access to Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) ETFs, vehicles that eliminate self-custody concerns, mitigate counterparty risk and align with traditional investment frameworks.

比特币ETF提供了追逐高风险，低位资产的替代方法，因为投资者可以通过结构化产品获得杠杆，流动性和监管清晰度。零售人群曾经是Altcoin猜测的主要驱动力，现在可以直接访问比特币和Ether（ETH）ETF，消除自我顾客关注的车辆，减轻对手的风险并与传统的投资框架保持一致。

Institutions have even greater incentives to sidestep altcoin risk. Hedge funds and professional trading desks, which once chased higher returns in low-liquidity altcoins, can deploy leverage through derivatives or take exposure via ETFs on legacy financial rails.

机构有更多的激励措施来避开Altcoin风险。对冲基金和专业贸易台曾经在低流动性高度销售中追捕较高的回报，可以通过衍生工具部署杠杆作用，或通过ETF在旧版金融轨道上进行曝光。

With the ability to hedge through options and futures, the incentive to gamble on illiquid, low-volume altcoins diminishes significantly. This has been further reinforced by the record $2.4 billion in outflows in February and arbitrage opportunities created by ETF redemptions, forcing a level of discipline into crypto markets that did not previously exist.

凭借对期权和未来的对冲的能力，赌博流动性的动机大大减少了流动性的动力。二月份的24亿美元流出和ETF赎回创造的套利机会进一步加强了这一点，迫使一级纪律进入以前不存在的加密货币市场。

Will venture capital abandon crypto startups?

风险资本会放弃加密初创公司吗？

Venture capital (VC) firms have historically been the lifeblood of alt seasons, injecting liquidity into nascent projects and spinning grand narratives around emerging tokens.

从历史上看，风险投资（VC）公司一直是ALT季节的命脉，将流动性注入新生的项目，并在新兴的代币周围旋转了宏伟的叙事。

However, with leverage being easily accessible and capital efficiency a key priority, VCs are rethinking their approach.

但是，随着杠杆易于访问和资本效率的关键优先级，VC正在重新考虑其方法。

VCs strive to make as much return on investment (ROI) as possible, but the typical range is between 17% and 25%. In traditional finance, the risk-free rate of capital serves as the benchmark against which all investments are measured, typically represented by US Treasury yields.

VCS努力使投资回报率尽可能多，但典型范围在17％至25％之间。在传统金融中，无风险的资本利率是所有投资的基准，通常由美国财政收益率代表。

In the crypto space, Bitcoin’s historical growth rate functions as a similar baseline for expected returns. This effectively becomes the industry’s version of the risk-free rate. Over the last decade, Bitcoin’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the past 10 years has averaged 77%, significantly outperforming traditional assets like gold (8%) and the S&P 500 (11%). Even over the past five years, including both bull and bear market conditions, Bitcoin has maintained a 67% CAGR.

在加密货币领域，比特币的历史增长率是预期收益的类似基线。这有效地成为行业的无风险利率版本。在过去的十年中，比特币在过去10年中的复合年增长率（CAGR）的平均值为77％，大大优于黄金（8％）和标准普尔500（11％）的传统资产。即使在过去的五年中，包括牛市和熊市状况在内，比特币也保持了67％的复合年增长率。

Using this as a baseline, a venture capitalist deploying capital in Bitcoin or Bitcoin-related ventures at this growth rate would see a total ROI of approximately 1,199% over five years, meaning the investment would increase nearly 12x.

以此为基准，以这种增长率在比特币或比特币相关的企业中部署资本的风险投资家将在五年内总ROI约为1,199％，这意味着这项投资将增加近12倍。

While Bitcoin remains volatile, its long-term outperformance has positioned it as the fundamental benchmark for evaluating risk-adjusted returns in the crypto space. With arbitrage opportunities and reduced risk, VCs may play the safer bet.

尽管比特币仍然波动，但其长期优先表现将其定位为评估加密货币领域中风险调整后收益的基本基准。凭借套利机会和降低的风险，风险投资可能会更安全的赌注。

In 2024, VC deal counts dropped 46%, even as overall investment volumes rebounded in Q4. This signals a shift toward more selective, high-value projects rather than speculative funding.

在2024年，VC交易数量下降了46％，即使总投资量在第四季度反弹。这表明向更具选择性，高价值项目而不是投机性资金转变。

Web3 and AI-driven crypto startups are still drawing attention, but the days of indiscriminate funding for every token with a white paper may be numbered. If venture capital pivots further toward structured exposure through ETFs rather than a direct investment in risky startups, the consequences could be severe for new altcoin projects.

Web3和AI驱动的加密初创公司仍在引起人们的注意，但是可能会编号每份使用白皮书的代币资助的日子。如果风险投资将进一步的探索通过ETF而不是直接投资于风险初创公司，那么对于新的Altcoin项目而言，后果可能会很严重。

Meanwhile, the few altcoin projects that have made it onto institutional radars — such as Aptos, which recently saw an ETF filing — are exceptions, not the rule. Even crypto index ETFs, designed to capture broader exposure, have struggled to attract meaningful inflows, underscoring that capital is concentrated rather than dispersed.

同时，少数已将其进入机构雷达的山寨币项目（例如最近看到ETF申请的Aptos）是例外，而不是规则。即使是旨在捕捉更广泛暴露的加密指数ETF，也努力吸引有意义的流入，强调资本​​是集中而不是分散的。

The oversupply problem and the new market reality

供应问题和新市场现实

The landscape has shifted. The sheer number of altcoins vying for attention has created a saturation problem. According to Dune Analytics, over 40 million tokens are currently in

景观发生了变化。争夺注意力的巨大山寨币数量造成了饱和问题。根据Dune Analytics的说法，目前有超过4000万个令牌