比特幣和以太坊預計在第一季回調，但長期前景仍看漲

儘管存在短期和中期看跌訊號，但從技術角度來看，比特幣和以太坊的長期前景仍然看漲。

Key Takeaways:

要點：

Bitcoin logged its first overbought “sell” signal on the weekly bar chart since mid-April.

自四月中旬以來，比特幣在每週長條圖上首次出現超買「賣出」訊號。

The signal suggests bitcoin will remain range-bound, at least in the short term.

該訊號表明，至少在短期內，比特幣將保持區間波動。

Despite short- and intermediate-term bearish signals, the long-term outlook for bitcoin remains bullish from a technical perspective.

儘管存在短期和中期看跌訊號，但從技術角度來看，比特幣的長期前景仍然看漲。

Ether has flashed an overbought “sell” signal, which comes after a rejection at important resistance.

以太坊在重要阻力位遭到拒絕後，已經發出了超買「賣出」訊號。

The “sell” signal has intermediate-term implications, supporting a corrective phase over the next couple of months.

「賣出」訊號具有中期影響，支援未來幾個月的修正階段。

A breakout above the $4000 level would likely result in improved long-term metrics like the monthly MACD.

突破 4000 美元水準可能會導致月度 MACD 等長期指標的改善。

In 2024, bitcoin outperformed ether by 74%, a trend that can be clearly seen in the bitcoin/ether ratio.

2024 年，比特幣的表現優於以太幣 74%，這一趨勢可以從比特幣/以太幣的比率中清楚看出。

Since early November, relative performance has become more fickle between the two largest cryptocurrencies.

自 11 月初以來，兩種最大的加密貨幣之間的相對錶現變得更加變化無常。

A bullish long-term outlook suggests that Q1 volatility may present an opportunity to add exposure.

看漲的長期前景表明，第一季的波動可能提供增加風險敞口的機會。

After a strong 120% gain in 2024, bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) ended the year with a whimper, logging the first overbought “sell” signal on its weekly bar chart since mid-April. The signal comes after a rejection at key resistance in the upper $70000s and suggests that bitcoin will remain range-bound, at least in the short term (roughly 2-6 weeks), as other risk assets (e.g., equities) continue to pull back.

在2024 年強勁上漲120% 後，比特幣(CRYPTO: BTC) 以低迷結束了這一年，在其每週條形圖上記錄了自4 月中旬以來的第一個超買“賣出”信號。該訊號是在 70,000 美元上方的關鍵阻力位被拒絕後發出的，表明比特幣至少在短期內（大約 2-6 週）將保持區間波動，因為其他風險資產（例如股票）繼續上漲後退。

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您正在閱讀《加密多空》，這是我們為專業投資者提供的每週通訊，其中包含見解、新聞和分析。在此註冊，每週三將其發送到您的收件匣。

Despite the short- and intermediate-term bearish signals, the long-term outlook for bitcoin remains bullish from a technical perspective following the post-election breakout in November. The breakout to new highs marked emergence from a several-month downtrend channel, and it helped long-term momentum indicators like the monthly moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) reaccelerate. Thus, a correction for bitcoin in Q1 should present an opportunity to add exposure ahead of another upleg in bitcoin later in 2025.

儘管有短期和中期看跌訊號，但在 11 月大選後突破之後，從技術角度來看，比特幣的長期前景仍然看漲。突破新高標誌著幾個月下降通道的出現，並幫助月度移動平均線收斂/發散（MACD）等長期動能指標重新加速。因此，第一季比特幣的修正應該會提供一個機會，在 2025 年稍後比特幣再次上漲之前增加風險敞口。

Ether: Resistance Near $4000 Is a Hurdle for Early 2025

以太幣：4000 美元附近的阻力位是 2025 年初的障礙

Like bitcoin, ether (CRYPTO: ETH) has flashed an overbought “sell” signal, which comes after a rejection at important resistance near $4000. The “sell” signal has intermediate-term implications, supporting a corrective phase over the next couple of months. Ether also has initial support at the daily Ichimoku cloud model, near $3226, above which it has stabilized.

與比特幣一樣，以太幣（CRYPTO：ETH）在 4000 美元附近的重要阻力位遭到拒絕後，也發出了超買「賣出」訊號。 「賣出」訊號具有中期影響，支援未來幾個月的修正階段。以太幣在每日 Ichimoku 雲模型附近也有初步支撐，接近 3226 美元，目前已穩定在該支撐位之上。

We expect a correction in Q1 to lead to a breakdown and test of the 200-day (40-week) moving average. However, our long-term indicators still point higher, albeit less convincingly, compared to bitcoin. A breakout above the $4000 level would likely result in improved long-term metrics like the monthly MACD.

我們預計第一季的調整將導致 200 天（40 週）移動平均線的崩潰和測試。然而，與比特幣相比，我們的長期指標仍然較高，儘管不太令人信服。突破 4000 美元水準可能會導致月度 MACD 等長期指標的改善。

Bitcoin vs. Ether: 2024 Outperformance by Bitcoin Gives Way to Volatility

比特幣 vs. 以太幣：2024 年比特幣的優異表現讓位給波動性

In 2024, bitcoin outperformed ether by 74%, a trend that can be clearly seen in the bitcoin/ether ratio. Since early November, relative performance has become more fickle between the two largest cryptocurrencies, evidenced by the wide trading range that has taken hold of the ratio.

2024 年，比特幣的表現優於以太幣 74%，這一趨勢可以從比特幣/以太幣的比率中清楚看出。自 11 月初以來，兩種最大的加密貨幣之間的相對錶現變得更加變化無常，這一比率的廣泛交易區間就證明了這一點。

During a crypto market correction, bitcoin normally outperforms ether since it is usually deemed as “safer.” However, all cryptocurrencies are likely to trade lower in absolute terms when risk assets are undergoing a correction, noting that correlations tend to go up when markets go down.

在加密貨幣市場調整期間，比特幣通常優於以太幣，因為它通常被認為「更安全」。然而，當風險資產正在經歷調整時，所有加密貨幣的絕對價格可能會走低，並指出當市場下跌時相關性往往會上升。

Nevertheless, a bullish long-term outlook suggests that Q1 volatility may present an opportunity to add exposure with a more favorable risk/reward profile, ideally waiting for the intermediate-term indicators to turn up again.

儘管如此，看漲的長期前景表明，第一季的波動可能提供了增加風險/回報狀況更有利的風險敞口的機會，理想情況下等待中期指標再次回升。