比特币和以太坊有望在第一季度回调，但长期前景仍然看涨

尽管存在短期和中期看跌信号，但从技术角度来看，比特币和以太坊的长期前景仍然看涨。

Key Takeaways:

要点：

Bitcoin logged its first overbought “sell” signal on the weekly bar chart since mid-April.

自四月中旬以来，比特币在每周条形图上首次出现超买“卖出”信号。

The signal suggests bitcoin will remain range-bound, at least in the short term.

该信号表明，至少在短期内，比特币将保持区间波动。

Despite short- and intermediate-term bearish signals, the long-term outlook for bitcoin remains bullish from a technical perspective.

尽管存在短期和中期看跌信号，但从技术角度来看，比特币的长期前景仍然看涨。

Ether has flashed an overbought “sell” signal, which comes after a rejection at important resistance.

以太坊在重要阻力位遭到拒绝后，已经发出了超买“卖出”信号。

The “sell” signal has intermediate-term implications, supporting a corrective phase over the next couple of months.

“卖出”信号具有中期影响，支持未来几个月的修正阶段。

A breakout above the $4000 level would likely result in improved long-term metrics like the monthly MACD.

突破 4000 美元水平可能会导致月度 MACD 等长期指标的改善。

In 2024, bitcoin outperformed ether by 74%, a trend that can be clearly seen in the bitcoin/ether ratio.

2024 年，比特币的表现优于以太币 74%，这一趋势可以从比特币/以太币的比率中清楚地看出。

Since early November, relative performance has become more fickle between the two largest cryptocurrencies.

自 11 月初以来，两种最大的加密货币之间的相对表现变得更加变化无常。

A bullish long-term outlook suggests that Q1 volatility may present an opportunity to add exposure.

看涨的长期前景表明，第一季度的波动可能提供增加风险敞口的机会。

After a strong 120% gain in 2024, bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) ended the year with a whimper, logging the first overbought “sell” signal on its weekly bar chart since mid-April. The signal comes after a rejection at key resistance in the upper $70000s and suggests that bitcoin will remain range-bound, at least in the short term (roughly 2-6 weeks), as other risk assets (e.g., equities) continue to pull back.

在 2024 年强劲上涨 120% 后，比特币 (CRYPTO: BTC) 以低迷结束了这一年，在其每周条形图上记录了自 4 月中旬以来的第一个超买“卖出”信号。该信号是在 70000 美元上方的关键阻力位被拒绝后发出的，表明比特币至少在短期内（大约 2-6 周）将保持区间波动，因为其他风险资产（例如股票）继续上涨后退。

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Despite the short- and intermediate-term bearish signals, the long-term outlook for bitcoin remains bullish from a technical perspective following the post-election breakout in November. The breakout to new highs marked emergence from a several-month downtrend channel, and it helped long-term momentum indicators like the monthly moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) reaccelerate. Thus, a correction for bitcoin in Q1 should present an opportunity to add exposure ahead of another upleg in bitcoin later in 2025.

尽管存在短期和中期看跌信号，但在 11 月份大选后突破之后，从技术角度来看，比特币的长期前景仍然看涨。突破新高标志着几个月下降通道的出现，并帮助月度移动平均线收敛/发散（MACD）等长期动能指标重新加速。因此，第一季度比特币的修正应该会提供一个机会，在 2025 年晚些时候比特币再次上涨之前增加风险敞口。

Ether: Resistance Near $4000 Is a Hurdle for Early 2025

以太币：4000 美元附近的阻力位是 2025 年初的一个障碍

Like bitcoin, ether (CRYPTO: ETH) has flashed an overbought “sell” signal, which comes after a rejection at important resistance near $4000. The “sell” signal has intermediate-term implications, supporting a corrective phase over the next couple of months. Ether also has initial support at the daily Ichimoku cloud model, near $3226, above which it has stabilized.

与比特币一样，以太坊（CRYPTO：ETH）在 4000 美元附近的重要阻力位遭到拒绝后，也发出了超买“卖出”信号。 “卖出”信号具有中期影响，支持未来几个月的修正阶段。以太币在每日 Ichimoku 云模型附近也有初步支撑，接近 3226 美元，目前已稳定在该支撑位之上。

We expect a correction in Q1 to lead to a breakdown and test of the 200-day (40-week) moving average. However, our long-term indicators still point higher, albeit less convincingly, compared to bitcoin. A breakout above the $4000 level would likely result in improved long-term metrics like the monthly MACD.

我们预计第一季度的调整将导致 200 天（40 周）移动平均线的崩溃和测试。然而，与比特币相比，我们的长期指标仍然较高，尽管不太令人信服。突破 4000 美元水平可能会导致月度 MACD 等长期指标的改善。

Bitcoin vs. Ether: 2024 Outperformance by Bitcoin Gives Way to Volatility

比特币与以太币：2024 年比特币的优异表现让位于波动性

In 2024, bitcoin outperformed ether by 74%, a trend that can be clearly seen in the bitcoin/ether ratio. Since early November, relative performance has become more fickle between the two largest cryptocurrencies, evidenced by the wide trading range that has taken hold of the ratio.

2024 年，比特币的表现优于以太币 74%，这一趋势可以从比特币/以太币的比率中清楚地看出。自 11 月初以来，两种最大的加密货币之间的相对表现变得更加变化无常，这一比率的广泛交易区间就证明了这一点。

During a crypto market correction, bitcoin normally outperforms ether since it is usually deemed as “safer.” However, all cryptocurrencies are likely to trade lower in absolute terms when risk assets are undergoing a correction, noting that correlations tend to go up when markets go down.

在加密货币市场调整期间，比特币通常优于以太币，因为它通常被认为“更安全”。然而，当风险资产正在经历调整时，所有加密货币的绝对价格可能会走低，并指出当市场下跌时相关性往往会上升。

Nevertheless, a bullish long-term outlook suggests that Q1 volatility may present an opportunity to add exposure with a more favorable risk/reward profile, ideally waiting for the intermediate-term indicators to turn up again.

尽管如此，看涨的长期前景表明，第一季度的波动可能提供了增加风险/回报状况更有利的风险敞口的机会，理想情况下等待中期指标再次回升。