比特幣難以捉摸的避風港地位：對其對沖作用的批判性分析

在經濟危機期間，加密貨幣市場表現不佳，比特幣（BTC）暴跌10%。然而，行業專家保持著長遠的眼光，質疑比特幣的真正對沖能力。從歷史上看，比特幣一直是一種反週期資產，但其最近與科技股的相關性引發了擔憂。現貨比特幣 ETF 推出後波動性激增，進一步加劇了爭論的複雜性，挑戰了先前關於比特幣波動性作為其決定性特徵的假設。

Bitcoin's Elusive Role as a Hedge: A Critical Examination

比特幣作為對沖工具的難以捉摸的作用：批判性檢驗

Introduction

介紹

The recent market volatility surrounding bitcoin (BTC) has reignited debates about its purported status as a haven asset amidst economic turmoil. While the cryptocurrency's performance has fallen short of expectations during the past week's geopolitical crisis, proponents maintain a long-term perspective that Bitcoin's role as a hedge remains viable.

最近圍繞比特幣（BTC）的市場波動重新引發了人們對其所謂的經濟動盪中的避險資產地位的爭論。儘管在過去一週的地緣政治危機中，加密貨幣的表現未達到預期，但支持者仍堅持長期觀點，認為比特幣作為對沖工具的作用仍然可行。

Intraday Price Fluctuations and Market Dynamics

盤中價格波動與市場動態

Critics argue that Bitcoin's significant 10% drop in value following Iran's failed missile attack on Gaza, coupled with the concurrent rise in gold prices, undermines its credibility as a hedge. However, such intraday price movements for an asset as volatile as Bitcoin are considered unreliable indicators of its long-term value.

批評者認為，伊朗對加薩的飛彈襲擊失敗後，比特幣價值大幅下跌 10%，再加上金價同時上漲，削弱了其作為對沖工具的可信度。然而，像比特幣這樣波動性較大的資產的日內價格變動被認為是其長期價值的不可靠指標。

Moreover, the broader market context suggests that factors beyond the geopolitical event may have influenced Bitcoin's performance. The Federal Reserve's indication that interest rates may remain higher for longer than anticipated, signaling a robust economy, has potentially dampened investor sentiment across all markets, including Bitcoin.

此外，更廣泛的市場背景表明，地緣政治事件之外的因素可能影響了比特幣的表現。聯準會表示利率可能在比預期更高的時間內保持較高水平，這表明經濟強勁，這可能會抑制包括比特幣在內的所有市場的投資者情緒。

Correlation with Stocks and Institutionalization

與股票和製度化的相關性

A key factor that has emerged in recent years is Bitcoin's increasing correlation with the stock market, particularly the S&P 500. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, Bitcoin was largely uncorrelated with traditional equities, but this dynamic has shifted as Bitcoin has gained more mainstream acceptance.

近年來出現的關鍵因素是比特幣與股市（尤其是標準普爾500 指數）的相關性不斷增強。得更加主流，這種動態已經發生了變化驗收。

The institutionalization of Bitcoin, evidenced by the launch of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January 2023, has further contributed to this convergence. As barriers to entry lower and Bitcoin becomes more accessible to institutional investors, its price movements are increasingly influenced by the same factors that drive stock prices.

2023 年 1 月推出現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）證明了比特幣的製度化，進一步促進了這種融合。隨著進入門檻的降低和機構投資者更容易獲得比特幣，其價格走勢越來越受到推動股價的相同因素的影響。

The Hyperbitcoinization Theory and the Digital Gold Myth

超級比特幣化理論與數位黃金神話

The hyperbitcoinization theory proposed that as Bitcoin adoption increased, its price volatility would dissipate, making it a viable medium of exchange. This theory was predicated on the assumption that a widespread, circular Bitcoin economy would marginalize fiat currencies.

超比特幣化理論提出，隨著比特幣採用的增加，其價格波動將會消失，使其成為可行的交易媒介。該理論基於這樣的假設：廣泛的循環比特幣經濟將使法定貨幣邊緣化。

However, the flawed metaphor of Bitcoin as "digital gold" has led to misconceptions about its hedging capabilities. Gold's historical stability as a safe haven asset does not necessarily translate to Bitcoin, given their distinct characteristics and market dynamics.

然而，比特幣作為「數位黃金」的錯誤比喻導致了對其對沖能力的誤解。鑑於黃金的獨特特徵和市場動態，黃金作為避險資產的歷史穩定性並不一定適用於比特幣。

Bitcoin as a Liquidity Absorber

比特幣作為流動性吸收者

Over the past decade, Bitcoin has primarily served as an absorber of excess liquidity. Its consistent growth during periods of monetary easing suggests that its value has been influenced by the expansion of the money supply rather than its perceived hedging qualities.

在過去的十年中，比特幣主要充當過剩流動性的吸收者。它在貨幣寬鬆期間的持續增長表明，其價值受到貨幣供應量擴張的影響，而不是其感知的對沖品質的影響。

The Ongoing Quest for a True Hedge

對真正對沖的持續探索

The hedge that Bitcoiners ultimately seek is a transformative event that could lead to a sudden and dramatic surge in its value. Such an event could be triggered by a widespread loss of confidence in fiat currencies or a major economic crisis.

比特幣愛好者最終尋求的對沖是一個變革性事件，可能會導致其價值突然大幅飆升。此類事件可能是由對法定貨幣普遍喪失信心或重大經濟危機所引發的。

Conclusion

結論

While Bitcoin's performance as a short-term hedge during the recent geopolitical event has been underwhelming, its long-term role as a potential safe haven asset remains an open question. Factors such as institutionalization, correlation with the stock market, and the elusive nature of true hedging capabilities will continue to shape the debate over Bitcoin's true value and its ability to serve as a bulwark against economic turmoil.

儘管比特幣在最近的地緣政治事件中作為短期對沖工具的表現一直不佳，但其作為潛在避險資產的長期作用仍然是一個懸而未決的問題。制度化、與股市的相關性以及真正對沖能力的難以捉摸等因素將繼續影響比特幣真實價值及其作為抵禦經濟動盪堡壘的能力的爭論。

Disclosure

揭露

The author owns minor amounts of BTC and ETH.

作者擁有少量 BTC 和 ETH。