比特币难以捉摸的避风港地位：对其对冲作用的批判性分析

在经济危机期间，加密货币市场表现不佳，比特币（BTC）暴跌10%。然而，行业专家保持着长远的眼光，质疑比特币的真正对冲能力。从历史上看，比特币一直是一种反周期资产，但其最近与科技股的相关性引发了担忧。现货比特币 ETF 推出后波动性激增，进一步加剧了争论的复杂性，挑战了之前关于比特币波动性作为其决定性特征的假设。

Bitcoin's Elusive Role as a Hedge: A Critical Examination

比特币作为对冲工具的难以捉摸的作用：批判性检验

Introduction

介绍

The recent market volatility surrounding bitcoin (BTC) has reignited debates about its purported status as a haven asset amidst economic turmoil. While the cryptocurrency's performance has fallen short of expectations during the past week's geopolitical crisis, proponents maintain a long-term perspective that Bitcoin's role as a hedge remains viable.

最近围绕比特币（BTC）的市场波动重新引发了人们对其所谓的经济动荡中的避险资产地位的争论。尽管在过去一周的地缘政治危机中，加密货币的表现未达到预期，但支持者仍坚持长期观点，认为比特币作为对冲工具的作用仍然可行。

Intraday Price Fluctuations and Market Dynamics

盘中价格波动和市场动态

Critics argue that Bitcoin's significant 10% drop in value following Iran's failed missile attack on Gaza, coupled with the concurrent rise in gold prices, undermines its credibility as a hedge. However, such intraday price movements for an asset as volatile as Bitcoin are considered unreliable indicators of its long-term value.

批评者认为，伊朗对加沙的导弹袭击失败后，比特币价值大幅下跌 10%，再加上金价同时上涨，削弱了其作为对冲工具的可信度。然而，像比特币这样波动性较大的资产的日内价格变动被认为是其长期价值的不可靠指标。

Moreover, the broader market context suggests that factors beyond the geopolitical event may have influenced Bitcoin's performance. The Federal Reserve's indication that interest rates may remain higher for longer than anticipated, signaling a robust economy, has potentially dampened investor sentiment across all markets, including Bitcoin.

此外，更广泛的市场背景表明，地缘政治事件之外的因素可能影响了比特币的表现。美联储表示利率可能在比预期更高的时间内保持较高水平，这表明经济强劲，这可能会抑制包括比特币在内的所有市场的投资者情绪。

Correlation with Stocks and Institutionalization

与股票和制度化的相关性

A key factor that has emerged in recent years is Bitcoin's increasing correlation with the stock market, particularly the S&P 500. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, Bitcoin was largely uncorrelated with traditional equities, but this dynamic has shifted as Bitcoin has gained more mainstream acceptance.

近年来出现的一个关键因素是比特币与股市（尤其是标准普尔 500 指数）的相关性不断增强。在 COVID-19 大流行之前，比特币基本上与传统股票不相关，但随着比特币变得更加主流，这种动态已经发生了变化验收。

The institutionalization of Bitcoin, evidenced by the launch of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January 2023, has further contributed to this convergence. As barriers to entry lower and Bitcoin becomes more accessible to institutional investors, its price movements are increasingly influenced by the same factors that drive stock prices.

2023 年 1 月推出现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）证明了比特币的制度化，进一步促进了这种融合。随着进入门槛的降低和机构投资者更容易获得比特币，其价格走势越来越受到推动股价的相同因素的影响。

The Hyperbitcoinization Theory and the Digital Gold Myth

超级比特币化理论和数字黄金神话

The hyperbitcoinization theory proposed that as Bitcoin adoption increased, its price volatility would dissipate, making it a viable medium of exchange. This theory was predicated on the assumption that a widespread, circular Bitcoin economy would marginalize fiat currencies.

超比特币化理论提出，随着比特币采用的增加，其价格波动将会消失，使其成为一种可行的交易媒介。该理论基于这样的假设：广泛的循环比特币经济将使法定货币边缘化。

However, the flawed metaphor of Bitcoin as "digital gold" has led to misconceptions about its hedging capabilities. Gold's historical stability as a safe haven asset does not necessarily translate to Bitcoin, given their distinct characteristics and market dynamics.

然而，比特币作为“数字黄金”的错误比喻导致了对其对冲能力的误解。鉴于黄金的独特特征和市场动态，黄金作为避险资产的历史稳定性并不一定适用于比特币。

Bitcoin as a Liquidity Absorber

比特币作为流动性吸收者

Over the past decade, Bitcoin has primarily served as an absorber of excess liquidity. Its consistent growth during periods of monetary easing suggests that its value has been influenced by the expansion of the money supply rather than its perceived hedging qualities.

在过去的十年中，比特币主要充当过剩流动性的吸收者。它在货币宽松期间的持续增长表明，其价值受到货币供应量扩张的影响，而不是其感知的对冲质量的影响。

The Ongoing Quest for a True Hedge

对真正对冲的持续探索

The hedge that Bitcoiners ultimately seek is a transformative event that could lead to a sudden and dramatic surge in its value. Such an event could be triggered by a widespread loss of confidence in fiat currencies or a major economic crisis.

比特币爱好者最终寻求的对冲是一个变革性事件，可能会导致其价值突然大幅飙升。此类事件可能是由对法定货币普遍丧失信心或重大经济危机引发的。

Conclusion

结论

While Bitcoin's performance as a short-term hedge during the recent geopolitical event has been underwhelming, its long-term role as a potential safe haven asset remains an open question. Factors such as institutionalization, correlation with the stock market, and the elusive nature of true hedging capabilities will continue to shape the debate over Bitcoin's true value and its ability to serve as a bulwark against economic turmoil.

尽管比特币在最近的地缘政治事件中作为短期对冲工具的表现一直不佳，但其作为潜在避险资产的长期作用仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。制度化、与股市的相关性以及真正对冲能力的难以捉摸等因素将继续影响有关比特币真实价值及其作为抵御经济动荡堡垒的能力的争论。

Disclosure

披露

The author owns minor amounts of BTC and ETH.

作者拥有少量 BTC 和 ETH。