比特幣的更正可能只是開始

比特幣的更正可能只是開始。實際上，整個加密貨幣部門可能會面臨重新降低2022年的嚴重下降。

Bitcoin’s correction may just be getting started. In fact, the crypto sector as a whole could be facing a severe downtrend reminiscent of 2022.

比特幣的更正可能只是開始。實際上，整個加密貨幣部門可能會面臨重新降低2022年的嚴重下降。

“I could see us going back to a five handle by the end of the year,” Quinn Thompson, founder of crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, told CoinDesk in an interview. A "five handle," i.e. a price between $50,000 and $59,999, would be down substantially from the already shaky current $83,000 level and roughly a 50% decline from bitcoin's peak just above $109,000 just more than two months ago.

“我可以看到我們在今年年底之前回到了五個手柄，”加密望遠鏡基金會Lekker Capital的創始人Quinn Thompson在接受采訪時告訴Coindesk。即“五個手柄”，即50,000美元至59,999美元之間的價格將大大降低到本來已經搖搖欲墜的83,000美元水平，而比特幣的峰值僅在兩個月前的109,000美元以上的價格下降了約50％。

“I don't think it happens quickly, which is why it would be very painful and shocking to people because nothing about the current market conditions is very volatile, with big liquidations and crashes,” Thompson added. “It's this sort of different market environment, a slow grind down that is almost more unbearable for people because they're like, ‘Is it over? Is the bottom in?’”

湯普森補充說：“我認為它不會很快發生，這就是為什麼它會給人們帶來非常痛苦和震驚的原因，因為目前的市場狀況並沒有大量清算和崩潰。” “這是這種不同的市場環境，對人們來說，緩慢的磨削幾乎是難以忍受的，因為他們就像'它結束了嗎？底部嗎？'”

Thompson, who had been bearish from far higher levels, has repeatedly called the White House’s crypto announcements — be it the Sovereign Wealth Fund or Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, or anything in-between — "nothingburgers" and “sell the news” events. He has also argued that Strategy’s (MSTR) constant bitcoin buys aren’t necessarily bullish for the cryptocurrency, since they seem to be the only significant bid.

湯普森（Thompson）曾經是更高層次的看跌，他一再稱白宮的加密宣布 - 無論是主權財富基金還是戰略比特幣儲備金，還是中間的任何東西 - “無漢堡”和“出售新聞”活動。他還認為，策略（MSTR）不斷的比特幣購買不一定對加密貨幣看漲，因為它們似乎是唯一的重要出價。

The economy’s four headwinds

經濟的四個逆風

Central to Thompson’s thesis is the idea that the Trump administration’s various policies will likely hurt the economy for the next six to nine months.

湯普森論文的核心是，特朗普政府的各種政策可能會在接下來的六到九個月內損害經濟。

First, the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E), in its efforts to reduce the U.S. deficit, is bent on cutting government spending — which has been one of the largest drivers of job growth in recent years. The labour market was already wobbly when the Biden team handed over the reins to Trump, Thompson said, and the new government’s fiscal arm isn’t interested in propping things up anymore.

首先，政府效率部（DOGE）為減少美國赤字而努力減少政府支出，這是近年來就業增長的最大驅動因素之一。湯普森說，當拜登團隊將re繩交給特朗普時，勞動力市場已經搖搖欲墜。

“People get caught up in the politics of it,” Thompson said. “We can disagree on whether we need the Department of Education or not. But those dollars were being printed and going into people's pockets, and those people spent them, and went on vacation and to the grocery store. So it was growth positive.”

湯普森說：“人們陷入了政治之中。” “我們可以不同意我們是否需要教育部。但是那些美元被印刷並進入人們的口袋，那些人花了它們，然後去度假和雜貨店。因此，增長是積極的。”

Elon Musk, the main force behind D.O.G.E, said last week that he was aiming to cut $1 trillion in government spending by the end of May; he also said he wanted to cut 15% of the government’s annual spending, meaning almost $7 trillion.

Doge背後的主要力量埃隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk）上週表示，他的目標是在5月底削減1萬億美元的政府支出。他還說，他想減少政府年度支出的15％，這意味著將近7萬億美元。

Even if D.O.G.E fails its stated objective and only manages to cut, say, a hundred billion over the course of four years, the bigger cuts are likely to occur at the beginning of Trump’s term, not the end, Thompson argued. This means that D.O.G.E’s impact on the economy and consumer sentiment is likely to be felt in the coming months, no matter whether the agency actually succeeds or not.

湯普森認為，即使Doge未能在四年中削減一千億美元的裁員，但湯普森認為，更大的削減可能會在特朗普開始時發生，而不是結束。這意味著，無論該機構是否真正成功，Doge對經濟和消費者情緒的影響都可能會在未來幾個月內感受到。

Second, the crackdown on illegal immigration at the southern border — combined with the renewed emphasis on deportations — is bound to affect the labour market, Thompson said. Migration is growth positive because it puts pressure on wages; if that labour pool dries up, workers will demand higher salaries, which some businesses won’t be able to afford.

其次，鎮壓南部邊界非法移民的鎮壓以及對驅逐出境的重新強調一定會影響勞動力市場。遷移是生長陽性的，因為它會給工資施加壓力。如果勞動池乾燥，工人將要求更高的薪水，一些企業將無法負擔。

Thompson’s third issue is tariffs. The Trump administration keeps changing up its tariff threats on a day-to-day basis, sometimes promising new ones, sometimes calling them off, creating doubt as to whether the majority of proposed tariffs will actually ever go into effect. But the important thing about tariffs is that they create uncertainty for businesses, which may elect to delay investment or hiring decisions until the tariff situation is resolved.

湯普森的第三個問題是關稅。特朗普政府每天不斷改變其關稅威脅，有時有望有所承諾，有時會取消關稅威脅，對大多數擬議的關稅是否真的會生效，這使他們感到懷疑。但是關稅的重要一點是，它們為企業造成不確定性，這些企業可能會選擇延遲投資或僱用決定，直到解決關稅情況。

Finally, the Federal Reserve doesn’t seem to be in a hurry to loosen financial conditions because inflation data hasn’t been great. The U.S. central bank cut interest by a full percentage point at the end of 2024, to 4.25%-4.5%, and even that wasn’t enough to push bitcoin above $110,000. Thompson says he expects the Fed to cut anywhere between 25 and 75 basis points in 2025, but that these cuts will be spread out in the second half of the year.

最後，美聯儲似乎並不急於放鬆財務狀況，因為通貨膨脹數據並不好。美國中央銀行在2024年底將利息降低了一個全部百分點，至4.25％-4.5％，即使這還不足以將比特幣提高到110,000美元以上。湯普森說，他預計美聯儲在2025年將在25至75個基點之間削減，但是這些削減將在下半年分散。

“I think there's a lot more coordination going on between the Treasury and the Fed than people want to believe,” Thompson said. “People thought Trump and [Fed chair] Powell would be bickering, but they’re actually kind of on the same team right now. [Secretary of Treasury] Bessent and Trump are bringing growth down, and that helps Powell achieve lower inflation

湯普森說：“我認為財政部與美聯儲之間的協調要比人們想要的要多得多。” “人們認為特朗普和[美聯儲主席]鮑威爾會在爭吵，但實際上他們現在是同一個團隊。