比特币的更正可能只是开始

比特币的更正可能只是开始。实际上，整个加密货币部门可能会面临重新降低2022年的严重下降。

Bitcoin’s correction may just be getting started. In fact, the crypto sector as a whole could be facing a severe downtrend reminiscent of 2022.

比特币的更正可能只是开始。实际上，整个加密货币部门可能会面临重新降低2022年的严重下降。

“I could see us going back to a five handle by the end of the year,” Quinn Thompson, founder of crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, told CoinDesk in an interview. A "five handle," i.e. a price between $50,000 and $59,999, would be down substantially from the already shaky current $83,000 level and roughly a 50% decline from bitcoin's peak just above $109,000 just more than two months ago.

“我可以看到我们在今年年底之前回到了五个手柄，”加密望远镜基金会Lekker Capital的创始人Quinn Thompson在接受采访时告诉Coindesk。即“五个手柄”，即50,000美元至59,999美元之间的价格将大大降低到本来已经摇摇欲坠的83,000美元水平，而比特币的峰值仅在两个月前的109,000美元以上的价格下降了约50％。

“I don't think it happens quickly, which is why it would be very painful and shocking to people because nothing about the current market conditions is very volatile, with big liquidations and crashes,” Thompson added. “It's this sort of different market environment, a slow grind down that is almost more unbearable for people because they're like, ‘Is it over? Is the bottom in?’”

汤普森补充说：“我认为它不会很快发生，这就是为什么它会给人们带来非常痛苦和震惊的原因，因为目前的市场状况并没有大量清算和崩溃。” “这是这种不同的市场环境，对人们来说，缓慢的磨削几乎是难以忍受的，因为他们就像'它结束了吗？底部吗？'”

Thompson, who had been bearish from far higher levels, has repeatedly called the White House’s crypto announcements — be it the Sovereign Wealth Fund or Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, or anything in-between — "nothingburgers" and “sell the news” events. He has also argued that Strategy’s (MSTR) constant bitcoin buys aren’t necessarily bullish for the cryptocurrency, since they seem to be the only significant bid.

汤普森（Thompson）曾经是更高层次的看跌，他一再称白宫的加密宣布 - 无论是主权财富基金还是战略比特币储备金，还是中间的任何东西 - “无汉堡”和“出售新闻”活动。他还认为，策略（MSTR）不断的比特币购买不一定对加密货币看涨，因为它们似乎是唯一的重要出价。

The economy’s four headwinds

经济的四个逆风

Central to Thompson’s thesis is the idea that the Trump administration’s various policies will likely hurt the economy for the next six to nine months.

汤普森论文的核心是，特朗普政府的各种政策可能会在接下来的六到九个月内损害经济。

First, the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E), in its efforts to reduce the U.S. deficit, is bent on cutting government spending — which has been one of the largest drivers of job growth in recent years. The labour market was already wobbly when the Biden team handed over the reins to Trump, Thompson said, and the new government’s fiscal arm isn’t interested in propping things up anymore.

首先，政府效率部（DOGE）为减少美国赤字而努力减少政府支出，这是近年来就业增长的最大驱动因素之一。汤普森说，当拜登团队将re绳交给特朗普时，劳动力市场已经摇摇欲坠。

“People get caught up in the politics of it,” Thompson said. “We can disagree on whether we need the Department of Education or not. But those dollars were being printed and going into people's pockets, and those people spent them, and went on vacation and to the grocery store. So it was growth positive.”

汤普森说：“人们陷入了政治之中。” “我们可以不同意我们是否需要教育部。但是那些美元被印刷并进入人们的口袋，那些人花了它们，然后去度假和杂货店。因此，增长是积极的。”

Elon Musk, the main force behind D.O.G.E, said last week that he was aiming to cut $1 trillion in government spending by the end of May; he also said he wanted to cut 15% of the government’s annual spending, meaning almost $7 trillion.

Doge背后的主要力量埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）上周表示，他的目标是在5月底削减1万亿美元的政府支出。他还说，他想减少政府年度支出的15％，这意味着将近7万亿美元。

Even if D.O.G.E fails its stated objective and only manages to cut, say, a hundred billion over the course of four years, the bigger cuts are likely to occur at the beginning of Trump’s term, not the end, Thompson argued. This means that D.O.G.E’s impact on the economy and consumer sentiment is likely to be felt in the coming months, no matter whether the agency actually succeeds or not.

汤普森认为，即使Doge未能在四年中削减一千亿美元的裁员，但汤普森认为，更大的削减可能会在特朗普开始时发生，而不是结束。这意味着，无论该机构是否真正成功，Doge对经济和消费者情绪的影响都可能会在未来几个月内感受到。

Second, the crackdown on illegal immigration at the southern border — combined with the renewed emphasis on deportations — is bound to affect the labour market, Thompson said. Migration is growth positive because it puts pressure on wages; if that labour pool dries up, workers will demand higher salaries, which some businesses won’t be able to afford.

其次，镇压南部边界非法移民的镇压以及对驱逐出境的重新强调一定会影响劳动力市场。迁移是生长阳性的，因为它会给工资施加压力。如果劳动池干燥，工人将要求更高的薪水，一些企业将无法负担。

Thompson’s third issue is tariffs. The Trump administration keeps changing up its tariff threats on a day-to-day basis, sometimes promising new ones, sometimes calling them off, creating doubt as to whether the majority of proposed tariffs will actually ever go into effect. But the important thing about tariffs is that they create uncertainty for businesses, which may elect to delay investment or hiring decisions until the tariff situation is resolved.

汤普森的第三个问题是关税。特朗普政府每天不断改变其关税威胁，有时有望有所承诺，有时会取消关税威胁，对大多数拟议的关税是否真的会生效，这使他们感到怀疑。但是关税的重要一点是，它们为企业造成不确定性，这些企业可能会选择延迟投资或雇用决定，直到解决关税情况。

Finally, the Federal Reserve doesn’t seem to be in a hurry to loosen financial conditions because inflation data hasn’t been great. The U.S. central bank cut interest by a full percentage point at the end of 2024, to 4.25%-4.5%, and even that wasn’t enough to push bitcoin above $110,000. Thompson says he expects the Fed to cut anywhere between 25 and 75 basis points in 2025, but that these cuts will be spread out in the second half of the year.

最后，美联储似乎并不急于放松财务状况，因为通货膨胀数据并不好。美国中央银行在2024年底将利息降低了一个全部百分点，至4.25％-4.5％，即使这还不足以将比特币提高到110,000美元以上。汤普森说，他预计美联储在2025年将在25至75个基点之间削减，但是这些削减将在下半年分散。

“I think there's a lot more coordination going on between the Treasury and the Fed than people want to believe,” Thompson said. “People thought Trump and [Fed chair] Powell would be bickering, but they’re actually kind of on the same team right now. [Secretary of Treasury] Bessent and Trump are bringing growth down, and that helps Powell achieve lower inflation

汤普森说：“我认为财政部与美联储之间的协调要比人们想要的要多得多。” “人们认为特朗普和（美联储主席）鲍威尔会在争吵，但实际上他们现在是同一个团队。