比特幣回檔：熊市預兆還是看漲機會？

在近期加密貨幣市場的看跌趨勢中，2024 年以來的新比特幣買家正面臨巨大的虧損拋售壓力。鏈上數據顯示，隨著資產價格回撤，已實現損失激增，短期持有者首次低於損益平衡點。這種恐慌性拋售引發了人們對市場看漲情緒的擔憂。然而，分析師指出，多頭市場可能尚未結束，因為期貨市場數據和現貨驅動的拋售動態表明價格可能會進一步波動。

Bitcoin's Correction: A Bearish Sign or a Bullish Opportunity?

比特幣的回檔：看跌跡象還是看漲機會？

The cryptocurrency market has endured a significant correction over the past month, leaving a trail of losses and shattered confidence among novice investors. Blockchain data unveils a troubling trend: Bitcoin buyers of 2024, lured by the allure of soaring prices witnessed earlier this year, are now succumbing to the volatility and selling their assets at a loss.

過去一個月，加密貨幣市場經歷了大幅調整，造成了一系列損失，並打擊了新手投資者的信心。區塊鏈數據揭示了一個令人不安的趨勢：2024 年的比特幣買家受到今年稍早價格飆升的誘惑，現在正屈服於波動性並虧本出售資產。

Paper Hands Bitcoin Buyers Panic

紙手比特幣買家恐慌

Glassnode's analysis reveals a surge in on-chain "realized losses" coinciding with periods of high volatility, including today's market dip. Realized losses are determined by comparing the price of coins moved on a given day to the price when those coins were last transacted. This discrepancy represents a capital gain or loss depending on Bitcoin's current market price relative to the initial acquisition cost.

Glassnode 的分析顯示，鏈上「已實現損失」激增與高波動時期（包括今天的市場下跌）同時發生。已實現損失是透過將特定日期移動的代幣價格與這些代幣上次交易時的價格進行比較來確定的。這種差異代表了資本收益或損失，取決於比特幣相對於初始購買成本的當前市場價格。

Today's market downturn marks a significant departure from previous setbacks. It signifies the first decisive break below Bitcoin's short-term holder cost basis of $59,600 – the break-even point for the average new Bitcoin buyer. "These recent buyers are statistically the most likely to panic," observed James Check, lead analyst at Glassnode, in a recent newsletter. "It represents a point where a significant number of coins and holders are underwater, potentially undermining bullish sentiment."

今天的市場低迷與先前的挫折有很大不同。這標誌著比特幣的短期持有成本基礎首次突破 59,600 美元，即新比特幣買家的平均損益平衡點。 Glassnode 首席分析師 James Check 在最近的通訊中指出：“從統計數據來看，這些最近的買家最有可能感到恐慌。” “這代表著大量代幣和持有者陷入水下，可能會削弱看漲情緒。”

Bear Market in Sight?

熊市在望？

While this development certainly raises bearish concerns, Check emphasizes that losing this price level does not automatically herald the end of the Bitcoin bull market. For instance, open interest in the futures market remains relatively modest compared to the market's size, a historical indicator of frothy market conditions. Instead, the market appears to be driven by spot trades, with a substantial portion of sell-side pressure during the previous month originating from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).

雖然這一事態發展肯定會引發看跌擔憂，但 Check 強調，失去這一價格水準並不自動預示著比特幣牛市的結束。例如，與市場規模相比，期貨市場的未平倉部位仍然相對較小，而市場規模是泡沫市場狀況的歷史指標。相反，市場似乎是由現貨交易驅動的，上個月賣方壓力的很大一部分來自灰階比特幣信託基金（GBTC）。

Currently, short-term holders are still sitting on 3.31 million BTC at a loss, constituting two-thirds of their holdings. Check and other analysts have recognized Bitcoin's impending need for a price correction, as it had extended for an unusually protracted period without a meaningful pullback compared to previous bull runs.

目前，短期持有者仍虧損 331 萬枚 BTC，佔其持有量的三分之二。檢查和其他分析師已經認識到比特幣迫在眉睫的價格調整需求，因為與之前的牛市相比，比特幣已經持續了異常漫長的一段時間，但沒有有意義的回調。

Until today, Bitcoin's price had not retreated more than 20% from its local highs since 2022, whereas other bull markets have witnessed multiple 20 to 30% drawdowns. "A flush would be beneficial for the sustained continuation of the bull market," tweeted Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investment. "The sooner we experience one, the more favorable the long-term prospects become."

直到今天，比特幣的價格自 2022 年以來的局部高點回落幅度還沒有超過 20%，而其他牛市則出現了多次 20% 至 30% 的下跌。 Capriole Investment 創始人查爾斯·愛德華茲 (Charles Edwards) 在推特上表示：“同花順將有利於牛市的持續延續。” “我們越早經歷這種情況，長期前景就越有利。”

Bull Market Resiliency in the Face of Adversity

牛市逆境中的韌性

Despite the current setback, Bitcoin's long-term fundamentals remain robust. Institutional adoption continues to grow, with major players such as MicroStrategy and Tesla holding significant amounts of Bitcoin. Moreover, the underlying blockchain technology is constantly evolving, with advancements like the Lightning Network enhancing scalability and efficiency.

儘管目前遇到挫折，比特幣的長期基本面仍然強勁。機構採用率持續成長，MicroStrategy 和 Tesla 等主要參與者持有大量比特幣。此外，底層區塊鏈技術不斷發展，閃電網路等進步增強了可擴展性和效率。

Moreover, the crypto market has historically demonstrated remarkable resilience, bouncing back from previous corrections and reaching new heights. While the current volatility may test the nerves of novice investors, seasoned veterans recognize it as an inherent characteristic of the asset class.

此外，加密貨幣市場歷來表現出非凡的彈性，從先前的調整中反彈並達到新的高度。雖然當前的波動可能會考驗新手投資者的神經，但經驗豐富的老手認為這是該資產類別的固有特徵。

A Test of Conviction

信念的考驗

The ongoing correction presents an opportunity for investors to reassess their convictions. Those who entered the market during the recent surge may find their resolve wavering, while long-term holders with a deep understanding of Bitcoin's fundamentals may view this downturn as a buying opportunity.

持續的調整為投資者提供了重新評估其信念的機會。那些在近期比特幣飆升期間進入市場的人可能會發現自己的決心動搖，而對比特幣基本面有深入了解的長期持有者可能會將這次低迷視為買入機會。

The market's trajectory remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: Bitcoin's correction has exposed the fragility of new investors' commitment. Those who lacked the fortitude to stomach volatility may have succumbed to panic selling, while those who believe in Bitcoin's long-term potential will likely remain steadfast in their conviction.

市場軌跡仍不確定，但有一點是明確的：比特幣的調整暴露了新投資者承諾的脆弱性。那些缺乏承受波動的毅力的人可能會屈服於恐慌性拋售，而那些相信比特幣長期潛力的人可能會堅定自己的信念。

As the market navigates this turbulent period, investors should tread cautiously, conduct thorough research, and maintain a long-term perspective. Bitcoin's volatility may test their patience, but it also provides opportunities for those willing to embrace the inherent risks and rewards of this rapidly evolving asset class.

在市場動盪時期，投資人應謹慎行事，深入研究，保持長遠眼光。比特幣的波動性可能會考驗他們的耐心，但它也為那些願意接受這種快速發展的資產類別的固有風險和回報的人提供了機會。