比特币回调：熊市预兆还是看涨机会？

在近期加密货币市场的看跌趋势中，2024 年以来的新比特币买家正面临着巨大的亏损抛售压力。链上数据显示，随着资产价格回撤，已实现损失激增，短期持有者首次低于盈亏平衡点。这种恐慌性抛售引发了人们对市场看涨情绪的担忧。然而，分析师指出，牛市可能尚未结束，因为期货市场数据和现货驱动的抛售动态表明价格可能进一步波动。

Bitcoin's Correction: A Bearish Sign or a Bullish Opportunity?

比特币的回调：看跌迹象还是看涨机会？

The cryptocurrency market has endured a significant correction over the past month, leaving a trail of losses and shattered confidence among novice investors. Blockchain data unveils a troubling trend: Bitcoin buyers of 2024, lured by the allure of soaring prices witnessed earlier this year, are now succumbing to the volatility and selling their assets at a loss.

过去一个月，加密货币市场经历了大幅调整，造成了一系列损失，并打击了新手投资者的信心。区块链数据揭示了一个令人不安的趋势：2024 年的比特币买家受到今年早些时候价格飙升的诱惑，现在正屈服于波动性并亏本出售资产。

Paper Hands Bitcoin Buyers Panic

纸手比特币买家恐慌

Glassnode's analysis reveals a surge in on-chain "realized losses" coinciding with periods of high volatility, including today's market dip. Realized losses are determined by comparing the price of coins moved on a given day to the price when those coins were last transacted. This discrepancy represents a capital gain or loss depending on Bitcoin's current market price relative to the initial acquisition cost.

Glassnode 的分析显示，链上“已实现损失”激增与高波动时期（包括今天的市场下跌）同时发生。已实现损失是通过将特定日期移动的代币价格与这些代币上次交易时的价格进行比较来确定的。这种差异代表了资本收益或损失，具体取决于比特币相对于初始购买成本的当前市场价格。

Today's market downturn marks a significant departure from previous setbacks. It signifies the first decisive break below Bitcoin's short-term holder cost basis of $59,600 – the break-even point for the average new Bitcoin buyer. "These recent buyers are statistically the most likely to panic," observed James Check, lead analyst at Glassnode, in a recent newsletter. "It represents a point where a significant number of coins and holders are underwater, potentially undermining bullish sentiment."

今天的市场低迷与之前的挫折有很大不同。这标志着比特币的短期持有成本基础首次突破 59,600 美元，即新比特币买家的平均盈亏平衡点。 Glassnode 首席分析师 James Check 在最近的一份时事通讯中指出：“从统计数据来看，这些最近的买家最有可能感到恐慌。” “这代表着大量代币和持有者陷入水下，可能会削弱看涨情绪。”

Bear Market in Sight?

熊市在望？

While this development certainly raises bearish concerns, Check emphasizes that losing this price level does not automatically herald the end of the Bitcoin bull market. For instance, open interest in the futures market remains relatively modest compared to the market's size, a historical indicator of frothy market conditions. Instead, the market appears to be driven by spot trades, with a substantial portion of sell-side pressure during the previous month originating from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).

虽然这一事态发展肯定会引发看跌担忧，但 Check 强调，失去这一价格水平并不自动预示着比特币牛市的结束。例如，与市场规模相比，期货市场的未平仓头寸仍然相对较小，而市场规模是泡沫市场状况的历史指标。相反，市场似乎是由现货交易驱动的，上个月卖方压力的很大一部分来自灰度比特币信托基金（GBTC）。

Currently, short-term holders are still sitting on 3.31 million BTC at a loss, constituting two-thirds of their holdings. Check and other analysts have recognized Bitcoin's impending need for a price correction, as it had extended for an unusually protracted period without a meaningful pullback compared to previous bull runs.

目前，短期持有者仍亏损 331 万枚 BTC，占其持有量的三分之二。检查和其他分析师已经认识到比特币迫在眉睫的价格调整需求，因为与之前的牛市相比，比特币已经持续了异常漫长的一段时间，但没有出现有意义的回调。

Until today, Bitcoin's price had not retreated more than 20% from its local highs since 2022, whereas other bull markets have witnessed multiple 20 to 30% drawdowns. "A flush would be beneficial for the sustained continuation of the bull market," tweeted Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investment. "The sooner we experience one, the more favorable the long-term prospects become."

直到今天，比特币的价格自 2022 年以来的局部高点回落幅度还没有超过 20%，而其他牛市则出现了多次 20% 至 30% 的下跌。 Capriole Investment 创始人查尔斯·爱德华兹 (Charles Edwards) 在推特上表示：“同花顺将有利于牛市的持续延续。” “我们越早经历这种情况，长期前景就越有利。”

Bull Market Resiliency in the Face of Adversity

牛市逆境中的韧性

Despite the current setback, Bitcoin's long-term fundamentals remain robust. Institutional adoption continues to grow, with major players such as MicroStrategy and Tesla holding significant amounts of Bitcoin. Moreover, the underlying blockchain technology is constantly evolving, with advancements like the Lightning Network enhancing scalability and efficiency.

尽管目前遇到挫折，比特币的长期基本面仍然强劲。机构采用率持续增长，MicroStrategy 和 Tesla 等主要参与者持有大量比特币。此外，底层区块链技术不断发展，闪电网络等进步增强了可扩展性和效率。

Moreover, the crypto market has historically demonstrated remarkable resilience, bouncing back from previous corrections and reaching new heights. While the current volatility may test the nerves of novice investors, seasoned veterans recognize it as an inherent characteristic of the asset class.

此外，加密货币市场历来表现出非凡的弹性，从之前的调整中反弹并达到新的高度。虽然当前的波动可能会考验新手投资者的神经，但经验丰富的老手认为这是该资产类别的固有特征。

A Test of Conviction

信念的考验

The ongoing correction presents an opportunity for investors to reassess their convictions. Those who entered the market during the recent surge may find their resolve wavering, while long-term holders with a deep understanding of Bitcoin's fundamentals may view this downturn as a buying opportunity.

持续的调整为投资者提供了重新评估其信念的机会。那些在近期比特币飙升期间进入市场的人可能会发现自己的决心动摇，而对比特币基本面有深入了解的长期持有者可能会将这次低迷视为买入机会。

The market's trajectory remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: Bitcoin's correction has exposed the fragility of new investors' commitment. Those who lacked the fortitude to stomach volatility may have succumbed to panic selling, while those who believe in Bitcoin's long-term potential will likely remain steadfast in their conviction.

市场轨迹仍不确定，但有一点是明确的：比特币的调整暴露了新投资者承诺的脆弱性。那些缺乏承受波动的毅力的人可能会屈服于恐慌性抛售，而那些相信比特币长期潜力的人可能会坚定自己的信念。

As the market navigates this turbulent period, investors should tread cautiously, conduct thorough research, and maintain a long-term perspective. Bitcoin's volatility may test their patience, but it also provides opportunities for those willing to embrace the inherent risks and rewards of this rapidly evolving asset class.

在市场动荡时期，投资者应谨慎行事，深入研究，保持长远眼光。比特币的波动性可能会考验他们的耐心，但它也为那些愿意接受这种快速发展的资产类别的固有风险和回报的人提供了机会。