川普早期領先，比特幣「Coinbase 溢價」躍升至兩個月高位，價格突破 7.4 萬美元

比特幣的「Coinbase溢價」是衡量美國國內對領先加密貨幣需求的關鍵指標，在早期領先的報導中再次閃爍綠燈

Bitcoin's "Coinbase premium," a key metric gauging stateside demand for the leading cryptocurrency, is flashing green again amid reports of an early lead for pro-crypto Republican candidate Donald Trump in the U.S. election.

比特幣的“Coinbase溢價”是衡量美國國內對領先加密貨幣需求的關鍵指標，在有報道稱支持加密貨幣的共和黨候選人唐納德·特朗普在美國大選中領先時，比特幣的“Coinbase溢價”再次呈綠色閃爍。

The "Coinbase Premium Index" measures the price difference for bitcoin on Coinbase, which is widely used by U.S. users and many institutional market participants, compared to the off-shore exchange Binance, the leading exchange by trading volume.

「Coinbase 溢價指數」衡量的是 Coinbase 上比特幣的價格差異，Coinbase 被美國用戶和許多機構市場參與者廣泛使用，與交易量領先的離岸交易所 Binance 相比。

The price differential turned positive during Wednesday's early Asian hours and jumped to 0.06, the highest since Sept. 14, according to data tracked by analytics firm CryptoQuant.

根據分析公司 CryptoQuant 追蹤的數據，週三亞洲時段早盤，價差轉正，並躍升至 0.06，為 9 月 14 日以來的最高水準。

Price rallies are said to be more sustainable when the cryptocurrency trades at a premium on Coinbase, reflecting stronger buying pressure from sophisticated traders and stateside institutions.

據說，當加密貨幣在 Coinbase 上以溢價交易時，價格上漲將更加可持續，這反映出來自經驗豐富的交易員和美國機構的更強勁的購買壓力。

Bitcoin (BTC) rose over 7% in Asia, topping the $74,000 mark for the first time as early trends by the Associated Press showed Trump winning Kentucky, Florida, West Virginia, and another four electoral college votes, outpacing his rival Kamala Harris. At press time, Trump leads the electoral map 101 to 71, according to the Associated Press.

比特幣(BTC) 在亞洲上漲超過7%，首次突破74,000 美元大關，美聯社的早期趨勢顯示川普贏得肯塔基州、佛羅裡達州、西維吉尼亞州和另外四張選舉人團選票，超過了他的競爭對手卡馬拉·哈里斯。根據美聯社報道，截至發稿時，川普在選情地圖上以 101 比 71 領先。

On decentralized predictions platform Polymarket, traders now see a 75% chance of Trump winning the presidential election.

在去中心化預測平台 Polymarket 上，交易員現在認為川普贏得總統選舉的機會為 75%。

In traditional markets, the dollar index, which tracks the greenback's value against major fiat currencies, jumped 1.3% to 104.80, reaching the highest since July 30, according to data source TradingView. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note jumped 16 basis points to 4.44%.

根據數據來源TradingView的數據，在傳統市場中，追蹤美元兌主要法定貨幣價值的美元指數上漲1.3%至104.80，達到7月30日以來的最高水準。美國10年期公債殖利率上漲16個基點至4.44%。

The dollar rally likely stems from Trump's plans to impose tariffs across the board, with a 60% duty on imports from China. "If Trump wins and puts a 60% tariff on China, we'll see a rise in the Dollar unlike anything in the past. China has only one option in response to tariffs: allow the RMB to fall hard and fast. That will pull down all of EM, which is collateral damage in the U.S.-China trade war," Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said on X.

美元上漲可能源自川普計劃全面徵收關稅，對來自中國的進口產品徵收60%的關稅。 「如果川普獲勝並對中國徵收60%的關稅，我們將看到美元出現前所未有的升值。中國應對關稅只有一個選擇：允許人民幣大幅快速貶值。這將拉動人民幣貶值。」布魯金斯學會高級研究員羅賓·布魯克斯(Robin Brooks) 在X 上表示：“所有新興市場都被打壓，這是美中貿易戰的附帶損害。”

Bitcoin has historically moved in the opposite direction of the dollar. The negative correlation, however, is being tested as a potential inflationary impact of trade tariffs could boost demand for perceived store-of-value assets like bitcoin and gold.

比特幣歷史上一直與美元走勢相反。然而，這種負相關性正在受到考驗，因為貿易關稅的潛在通膨影響可能會增加對比特幣和黃金等價值儲存資產的需求。

3:06 UTC: Adds commentary on traditional markets.

3:06 UTC：新增對傳統市場的評論。

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