特朗普早期领先，比特币“Coinbase 溢价”跃升至两个月高位，价格突破 7.4 万美元

比特币的“Coinbase溢价”是衡量美国国内对领先加密货币需求的关键指标，在早期领先的报道中再次闪烁绿灯

Bitcoin's "Coinbase premium," a key metric gauging stateside demand for the leading cryptocurrency, is flashing green again amid reports of an early lead for pro-crypto Republican candidate Donald Trump in the U.S. election.

比特币的“Coinbase溢价”是衡量美国国内对领先加密货币需求的关键指标，在有报道称支持加密货币的共和党候选人唐纳德·特朗普在美国大选中领先时，比特币的“Coinbase溢价”再次呈绿色闪烁。

The "Coinbase Premium Index" measures the price difference for bitcoin on Coinbase, which is widely used by U.S. users and many institutional market participants, compared to the off-shore exchange Binance, the leading exchange by trading volume.

“Coinbase 溢价指数”衡量的是 Coinbase 上比特币的价格差异，Coinbase 被美国用户和许多机构市场参与者广泛使用，与交易量领先的离岸交易所 Binance 相比。

The price differential turned positive during Wednesday's early Asian hours and jumped to 0.06, the highest since Sept. 14, according to data tracked by analytics firm CryptoQuant.

根据分析公司 CryptoQuant 追踪的数据，周三亚洲时段早盘，价差转正，并跃升至 0.06，为 9 月 14 日以来的最高水平。

Price rallies are said to be more sustainable when the cryptocurrency trades at a premium on Coinbase, reflecting stronger buying pressure from sophisticated traders and stateside institutions.

据说，当加密货币在 Coinbase 上以溢价交易时，价格上涨将更加可持续，这反映出来自经验丰富的交易员和美国机构的更强劲的购买压力。

Bitcoin (BTC) rose over 7% in Asia, topping the $74,000 mark for the first time as early trends by the Associated Press showed Trump winning Kentucky, Florida, West Virginia, and another four electoral college votes, outpacing his rival Kamala Harris. At press time, Trump leads the electoral map 101 to 71, according to the Associated Press.

比特币 (BTC) 在亚洲上涨超过 7%，首次突破 74,000 美元大关，美联社的早期趋势显示特朗普赢得肯塔基州、佛罗里达州、西弗吉尼亚州和另外四张选举人团选票，超过了他的竞争对手卡马拉·哈里斯。据美联社报道，截至发稿时，特朗普在选情地图上以 101 比 71 领先。

On decentralized predictions platform Polymarket, traders now see a 75% chance of Trump winning the presidential election.

在去中心化预测平台 Polymarket 上，交易员现在认为特朗普赢得总统选举的机会为 75%。

In traditional markets, the dollar index, which tracks the greenback's value against major fiat currencies, jumped 1.3% to 104.80, reaching the highest since July 30, according to data source TradingView. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note jumped 16 basis points to 4.44%.

根据数据来源TradingView的数据，在传统市场中，追踪美元兑主要法定货币价值的美元指数上涨1.3%至104.80，达到7月30日以来的最高水平。美国10年期国债收益率上涨16个基点至4.44%。

The dollar rally likely stems from Trump's plans to impose tariffs across the board, with a 60% duty on imports from China. "If Trump wins and puts a 60% tariff on China, we'll see a rise in the Dollar unlike anything in the past. China has only one option in response to tariffs: allow the RMB to fall hard and fast. That will pull down all of EM, which is collateral damage in the U.S.-China trade war," Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said on X.

美元上涨可能源于特朗普计划全面征收关税，对来自中国的进口商品征收60%的关税。 “如果特朗普获胜并对中国征收60%的关税，我们将看到美元出现前所未有的升值。中国应对关税只有一个选择：允许人民币大幅快速贬值。这将拉动人民币贬值。”布鲁金斯学会高级研究员罗宾·布鲁克斯 (Robin Brooks) 在 X 上表示：“所有新兴市场都被打压，这是美中贸易战的附带损害。”

Bitcoin has historically moved in the opposite direction of the dollar. The negative correlation, however, is being tested as a potential inflationary impact of trade tariffs could boost demand for perceived store-of-value assets like bitcoin and gold.

比特币历史上一直与美元走势相反。然而，这种负相关性正在受到考验，因为贸易关税的潜在通胀影响可能会增加对比特币和黄金等价值储存资产的需求。

3:06 UTC: Adds commentary on traditional markets.

3:06 UTC：添加对传统市场的评论。

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