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該預測主要基於當前期權做市商的定位。
As bitcoin's (BTC) recovery rally continues, $90,000 is now the key level where things could get interesting. The projection is based mainly on the current positioning of options market makers.
隨著比特幣(BTC)恢復集會的繼續,$ 90,000現在是事情變得有趣的關鍵水平。該預測主要基於當前期權做市商的定位。
Market makers, also known as dealers or MMs, are responsible for providing liquidity to the order book. They occupy the opposite side of investors' trades and work to maintain a market-neutral exposure by hedging in spot and futures markets. They make money off the difference between what they pay for an asset and how much they sell it for, known as the bid-ask spread.
做市商,也稱為經銷商或MMS,負責為訂單書提供流動性。他們佔據了投資者交易的另一面,並通過在現場和期貨市場進行對沖來維持市場中立的曝光率。他們從資產支付的資金和銷售量(稱為Bid-ask差價)之間賺錢。
Deribit bitcoin options data tracked by Amberdata shows market makers are "short gamma" at the $90,000 strike. What that means is that as the bitcoin price moves closer to that level, market makers will need sell when the spot price drops and buy when it rises to keep a market-neutral position. These hedging activities could add to market volatility.
Amberdata跟踪的Deribit比特幣選項數據顯示,做市商是“短伽瑪”,售價為90,000美元。這意味著,隨著比特幣價格更接近該水平,當貨運價格下跌並在上升時購買以保持市場不中立地位時,做市商將需要賣出。這些對沖活動可能會增加市場波動。
"Considering that negative gamma will still significantly impact the market after settlement, the hedging behavior of MMs may further promote price fluctuations," Griffin Ardern, the chief author of BloFin Academy and head of BloFin Research and Options, told CoinDesk. "But the possibility of upward price movement seems to be greater for now."
Blofin Academy兼Blofin Research and Options的首席作者Griffin Ardern告訴Coindesk:“考慮到負伽瑪在定居後仍會顯著影響市場,MMS的對沖行為可能會進一步促進價格波動。” “但是現在,價格上漲的可能性似乎現在更大。”
Gamma represents the rate of change in delta, which itself measures the sensitivity of an option's price to changes in the underlying asset's price. Holding short gamma means holding a short position in options, which can lead to financial loss, especially during periods of high volatility. So when market makers are short gamma, they must trade in the market's direction to maintain a market-neutral book.
伽馬代表了增量的變化率,該變化率本身衡量了期權價格對基礎資產價格變化的敏感性。持有簡短的伽瑪意味著在期權方面的職位很短,這可能會導致財務損失,尤其是在高波動率時期。因此,當做市商是短伽瑪時,他們必須朝著市場的方向進行交易,以維持市場中立的書籍。
The opposite is the case when market makers are long gamma. Toward the end of last year, market makers were long gamma at $90,000 and $100,000, which led to consolidation between these levels.
當做市商是長伽瑪時,情況卻相反。到去年年底,做市商的伽瑪為90,000美元和100,000美元,這導致了這些水平之間的合併。
The chart shows gamma levels at strike prices across expirations. It's clear that the $90,000 strike will remain the one with the most negative delta following the quarterly settlement due this Friday.
該圖顯示了以罷工價格在各期內的伽馬水平。顯然,在本週五將於季度定居之後,90,000美元的罷工將仍然是最負三角洲的罷工。
In other words, the hedging behavior of dealers could add to market swings at around $90,000.
換句話說,經銷商的對沖行為可能會增加90,000美元左右的市場波動。
According to Ardern, the dealer gamma profile of BTC following Friday's expiration will look similar to the gold-backed PAXG token.
根據Ardern的說法,週五到期後BTC的經銷商Gamma概況看起來與金牌支持的Paxg代幣相似。
"After removing the impact of options about to be settled, PAXG has a similar GEX distribution to BTC. The price gets support after a significant price decline and encounters resistance when it rises significantly, that is, a wide range of fluctuations," Ardern said.
Ardern說:“在刪除了即將解決的期權的影響之後,PAXG的GEX分配與BTC具有相似的分配。在價格下降的大幅下降和電阻顯著上升後,價格得到了支持,也就是說,這是廣泛的波動。”
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