比特幣（BTC）價格看起來將收回100,000美元，歷史上的波動水平很低

比特幣的價格看起來將在周五收回100,000美元，在美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的後面召集，決定放棄針對加密交易所Coinbase的訴訟。

Bitcoin (BTC) price appeared to be gearing up for a breakout on Friday, with key volatility indicators nearing historically low levels.

比特幣（BTC）的價格似乎正準備在周五進行突破，關鍵的波動率指標在歷史上接近水平。

The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization was trading at around $95,340 at the time of writing, having risen over 3% in the past 24 hours. The BTC price rally came as the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) dropped the lawsuit against crypto exchange Coinbase.

在撰寫本文時，全球最大的加密貨幣的交易約為95,340美元，在過去的24小時內增長了3％以上。 BTC價格集會是隨著美國證券交易委員會（SEC）撤銷了針對加密交易所Coinbase的訴訟。

However, this momentum shift was halted following the $1.4 billion exploit of the ByBit exchange, which caused the cryptocurrency market to experience a collective loss of over $50 billion in a single day. But with Bitcoin’s price now hovering above $96,000, certain on-chain data suggests that a breakout could still be on the horizon.

但是，在14億美元的BYBIT Exchange利用14億美元的利用後，這種勢頭轉移停止了，這導致加密貨幣市場在一天內遭受了超過500億美元的集體損失。但是，隨著比特幣的價格現在徘徊在96,000美元以上，某些鏈上的數據表明，突破仍可能出現。

In a recent post on the X platform, crypto analytics firm Glassnode explained how two key volatility indicators nearing historically low levels could impact the Bitcoin price and its future trajectory.

在X平台上最近的一篇文章中，加密分析公司GlassNode解釋了兩個關鍵的波動率指標如何影響比特幣價格及其未來軌跡。

The two relevant metrics here are the 1-week “realized volatility” and “options implied volatility.” For context, realized volatility (also referred to as historical volatility) measures how much the price of an asset (BTC, in this case) has changed over a specific period. Implied volatility, on the other hand, is a metric that assesses the likelihood of future changes in an asset’s price.

這裡的兩個相關指標是為期1週的“實現波動率”和“選項隱含波動率”。在上下文中，實現的波動率（也稱為歷史波動率）衡量資產價格（在這種情況下為BTC）在特定時期內發生了多少變化。另一方面，隱含的波動率是評估資產價格將來變化的可能性的指標。

Bitcoin 1-Week Realized Volatility at Historical Lows

比特幣1週在歷史低谷中實現波動

According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin’s 1-week realized volatility recently dropped to 23.42%. The on-chain intelligence firm noted that the metric’s current value is close to historical lows, as BTC’s realized volatility has only fallen beneath this level a few times in the past four years.

根據玻璃節數據，比特幣的1週實現的波動率最近下降到23.42％。這家鍊鍊情報公司指出，該指標的當前價值接近歷史低點，因為BTC的實現波動僅在過去四年中幾次降至該水平以下。

Interestingly, the 1-week realized volatility hit 22.88% and 21.35% in October 2024 and November 2024, respectively. These points have acted as bottoms, with the metric rebounding from this level in the past. From a historical perspective, such declines in realized volatility have preceded significant price movements, increasing the odds of a potential breakout — or even a correction.

有趣的是，2024年10月和2024年11月的1週意識到的波動率分別達到22.88％和21.35％。這些觀點是底部的，過去的指標從這個水平反彈。從歷史的角度來看，這種實現的波動性下降之前已經發生了重大的價格變動，增加了潛在的突破的機率，甚至增加了糾正。

Bitcoin 1-Week Options Implied Volatility Nearing Multi-Year Lows

比特幣1週的選項暗示著波動率，接近多年低點

At the same time, Bitcoin’s 1-week options implied volatility has also experienced a significant decline to 37.39%. The indicator’s current level is close to multi-year lows — last seen in 2023 and early 2024.

同時，比特幣的1週選擇暗示波動率也顯著下降至37.39％。指標的當前水平接近多年低點 - 最後一次出現在2023年和2024年初。

Similarly, the Bitcoin price witnessed substantial market moves the last time the implied volatility was around this level. However, it is important to note that the longer-term options implied volatility is currently exhibiting a different trend.

同樣，比特幣價格在最後一次隱含波動率約為此水平時就見證了大量市場的發展。但是，重要的是要注意，長期選擇暗示的波動率目前表現出不同的趨勢。

The 3-month implied volatility stands at around 53.1%, while the 6-month indicator is hovering at 56.25%. This suggests that market participants expect increased volatility over the coming months.

3個月的隱含波動率約為53.1％，而6個月的指標為56.25％。這表明市場參與者預計未來幾個月的波動性會增加。